Europe is facing increasingly hybrid threats, and it lacks a shared culture of preparedness, according to our guest. Sauli Niinistö was the president of Finland from 2012 to 2024 and is now a special advisor to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. In that capacity, he has authored a major report: "Safer together: A path towards a fully prepared Union". We discuss Niinistö’s proposals to improve the EU's civil and military preparedness, and debrief some of the latest international diplomatic manoeuvres related to Ukraine.

We start with US President Donald Trump's phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and what it means for Ukraine and for Europe. "I'm very supportive of any kind of attempt to make peace. That's always better than continuing war," Niinistö responds. "But Ukraine deserves a fair and just peace. Peace in Ukraine has an impact on Europe as a whole, on European security as a whole. That is one reason why Europeans should be involved in those discussions. The other reason is that we have been helping Ukraine in a remarkable way during the war."

Niinistö surmises that current discussions in the EU are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine, rather than on NATO membership for Ukraine. "If the USA and European countries guarantee the peace strongly, that actually doesn't differ very much from NATO membership," he states. "So things depend on what kind of guarantee is given. In my opinion the guarantees should be very strong."

In his report, Niinistö bluntly asserts that the EU is not prepared for the scenario of an armed aggression against an EU member state. "My basic idea is that Europe is seen as weak," he elaborates. "And that is what Putin has clearly said. That Western people are weak, and thus Western countries are weak. We have to show that we are strong: not to wage war, but to avoid war. That’s the key issue." Niinistö adds that the EU should be much clearer about how article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty should work in practice. "There's a very strong moral and ethical obligation to help another EU country in the case of an armed attack. But this treaty article is not clear in all of its context," he says.

And how can the EU prepare for scenarios that are a barely imaginable at the moment? "I am worried about the future. In just a couple of years' time, we will face a situation where AI, cyber technology, hybrid space technology, or quantum technology, will make us ask what a weapon is. And what is a war, actually? So preparing against everything is the most demanding challenge," Niinistö asserts. "We will not only be facing a military threat. We will have the consequences of climate change. How do you react to being without electricity? And what about reserving food or water for a few days? That's part of my proposals."

The former Finnish president insists that ordinary citizens need to be at the forefront of preparedness. "I want to emphasise participation," he says. "Any kind of civil participation, especially by young people. In Finland we have conscription, which I understand is out of the question in many European countries. But there are possibilities to take part in civil or military protection activities on a voluntary basis, and to bring security closer to people, so that they see what needs to be done."

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown

The EU prides itself on being a global innovator in artificial intelligence regulation. Indeed, August 1, 2024 saw a historic moment as the world's first comprehensive legislation on AI started coming into force. Now, as of February 2 of this year, some of the most crucial provisions of the EU's landmark AI Act have come into effect: those that have to do with preventing unacceptable risk such as social scoring, or scraping the internet for the purposes of facial recognition. Also this month, Paris hosted a global AI Action Summit.

But for the EU, artificial intelligence is not just something to regulate. Brussels also wants to use AI to sharpen its own global competitiveness vis-à-vis China and the United States. Europe attracts only 6 percent of global funding for AI startups, compared to 61 percent in the US and 17 percent in China.

With our panel of MEPs, we discuss how the EU can close these innovation gaps, as well as how to deal with the challenges posed by US President Donald Trump's administration in the AI tech sector.

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Perrine Desplats and Luke Brown

Forty years after Europe's Single Market was conceived as the cornerstone of post-war integration for millions of citizens across its member states, a divided continent is in danger of behind left behind in a fierce global competition dominated by the United States and China, Italy’s former prime minister, Enrico Letta, told FRANCE 24.

Letta, a staunch pro-European who led Europe's third-largest economy from 2013 to 2014, and who authored a recent report on ways to reimagine the Single Market for the 21st century, said that Europe's fragmentation across industries from telecoms to energy to financial services means it is punching below its weight on the new global stage.

When the Single Market was created in 1985 as a way of moving goods, people, capital and services freely across the community, the world was a much "smaller" and simpler place geopolitically, Letta said.

The bloc that would eventually become the EU had fewer than half its current members, the Soviet Union still stood, the BRICs were still decades away, and China and India only made up about five percent of the world's economy.

"We are still 27, not one," Letta said, referring to the EU's current membership count. "And if we are still 27, we are still in the world of before … the world in which China and India were small countries. Today, with the BRICs, the world has completely changed. And if we are still each country alone, we are not able to be competitive enough and we are losing ground because we are fragmented."

Letta cited an example from the everyday life of ordinary Europeans – the use of an American Express credit card – as an example of one obvious way in which Europe’s failure to adopt common standards is hurting its prosperity and cohesion.

"It's not against the American credit card, it's about the fact that we are not able in Europe to build up European credit cards," Letta said, estimating that some $300 billion a year in European savings are going into the US financial market, to a US company.

"Why? For a very simple reason. We, the Italians, will never pay with a French credit card. The French will never pay with a German credit card. The Germans will never pay with a Spanish credit card. And so the fact that we are accepting that American cards are the only credit card we use, is the effect of fragmentation."

Asked whether the return of Donald Trump to the White House, with a populist "America First" agenda, would spur Europe to speak in a more united voice, or instead embolden those opposed to closer integration, Letta struck a cautious note.

"I hope that Trump's challenges will bring the European leaders to be more united," he said. But the former Italian premier voiced concern that some countries might be tempted to reach out to the US president on their own, rather than seeking a concerted approach with their fellow European leaders.

These concerns are already being borne out in some European quarters.

In Italy, the woman who now holds Letta's former job, the right-wing populist Giorgia Meloni, has been engaged in a tricky balancing act between courting the good will of Trump, while coordinating with EU leaders on key issues ranging from climate change to immigration.

In Hungary, meanwhile, the hard-right prime minister, Viktor Orban, has fashioned himself as a staunch opponent of "liberal democracy", often taking aim at European policies and institutions – while remaining studiously within the EU fold.

Letta said he had discussed his report on ways to revamp the Single Market with all 27 EU leaders – including Meloni.

"The discussion I had with her and with the Italian government was very constructive," he said. He added that in three hours of discussions he had with Orban, he found the Hungarian leader to be open to ideas about ways to make Europe more competitive and prevent billions of euros of savings from leaving the continent as a result of fragmentation.

"I had the feeling that there's a potential of working together," he said, adding that the window is closing for Europe to coalesce in common cause.

"Now is the time to act," he said.

Interview and text by Douglas Herbert

Programme prepared by Oihana Almandoz, Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown

Of all the elections happening in the EU this year, the vote in Germany is probably the one that is being watched most closely across the bloc. Europe's largest economy is in trouble; the old model of cheap gas and easily accessible export markets is no longer working. Meanwhile, its political fragmentation makes it increasingly hard for Germany to re-define its role in Europe, whether that's on defence spending, climate and energy policies or competitiveness. In this debate we explore what is stake for Europe, and how the outcome of the February 23 election could impact the conversation on defence, immigration and other key issues.

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Perrine Desplats and Luke Brown

The countdown is on to what is perhaps Europe's most important election of this year. On February 23, Germans go to the polls in a parliamentary vote, following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition in November. The conservative CDU-CSU is the favourite, but no party looks likely to win a majority, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling strongly. We sit down with an important player in the CSU: Manfred Weber, who is the president of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) in the European Parliament. We talk about the far right in Germany and Europe, Elon Musk’s support for the AfD, the EU’s relations with US President Donald Trump, and why the EPP is putting more focus on competitiveness and the European car industry.

We begin with the political situation in Germany. "The current government, the 'traffic light coalition', has failed," Weber asserts. "We are going to elections half a year before the regular date. That gives you a clear indication that [Chancellor] Olaf Scholz and the current government couldn’t make it any more. And now the centre-right CDU-CSU – the European People’s Party in Germany – has to show leadership. That’s up to [CDU] leader Friedrich Merz to show this. We are quite strong in the polls, and we try to convince people."

In response to accusations that Merz has broken the "cordon sanitaire" around the far right by tacitly aligning with the AfD in a parliamentary motion on tougher immigration rules, Weber insists that there will be no coalition between the conservatives and the AfD after the election. "This is unthinkable in Germany," he states. "The AfD says that Germany should leave the European Union, that it should leave NATO. This is really crazy, and not in Germany’s interest at all. So our firewall is clear. No cooperation with the AfD." Weber goes on: "Also at the European level we defend three principles (when discussing cooperation): being pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine and pro-rule of law. Everyone can be sure of that."

Asked whether close Trump ally Elon Musk's public support for the AfD constitutes election interference or is simply freedom of speech, Weber answers: "Even a tech billionaire can have strange political ideas. That's free speech. He can say whatever he wants to say. What is not acceptable is that he is using X as a platform to support the AfD. That is not allowed under our rules in Europe – the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act. My message is clear: the rules for our European communication and digital world are not made in Musk’s headquarters, nor in the White House. They are made here, in the European Parliament."

Other parties have accused the EPP of backsliding on agreements to phase out the internal combustion engine by 2035. But Weber links this issue to the competitiveness of Europe’s cars. "We are losing thousands of jobs every day in Europe," he affirms. "The backbone of our European industry is at stake. We have to win back our strength in global competitiveness. This is the number one priority for the EPP."

Weber insists this does not mean undermining the EU’s climate objectives. "I want to be a proud European, I want us to achieve our climate goal: zero neutrality in 2050,” he says. "The majority (of cars) will be electric cars, don’t get me wrong," he adds. "But we should leave it to engineers, companies and consumers to decide on the technology that will lead us to these climate goals. And I see in my talks with Renew and the Socialists that there is a growing awareness about the need to look at our car industry."

The EPP is still being courted by the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), whose boss suggests the EPP should build "ad hoc, technical majorities" with forces to the right of the EPP in order to push back on, for instance, environment-related regulations. Is Weber open to that? "Some of the statements from the far right are simply crazy," he exclaims. "I read the letter from [Patriots for Europe head] Jordan Bardella, telling us that we should get rid of the whole Green Deal. I'm sorry, but this is bullshit!"

We then turn to US President Donald Trump and his threat of tariffs on European goods. Can the EU make a deal with self-professed dealmaker Trump? "We can buy products from America. There are options there," Weber responds. "But probably the most important offer we can make to Donald Trump is, 'please let’s join forces to have a common China policy'. I was in Washington in December and the number one issue there was how to answer China’s global ambitions. And on this, Europe and America have a common interest. Together we are around 50 percent of global GDP. We can still write and draft the global agenda of tomorrow."

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown and Isabelle Romero

It's not the first time that the UK and the EU have expressed their readiness for a "reset" in relations. But now, five years after Britain left the European Union, there appears to be more momentum for making a reset happen, particularly with US President Donald Trump's threat of trade tariffs hanging over the European continent, and the future of NATO and EU defence up in the air. Our panellists debate whether the UK really knows what it wants, and in what areas the two sides can realistically work more closely together.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown and Isabelle Romero

Talking Europe hosts Georgia’s fifth president, who maintains that she is still the legitimate holder of that post, despite the swearing-in of a new president on December 29th. Salomé Zourabichvili explains why she believes that the inauguration of Mikheil Kavelashvili was illegitimate, and why Georgia is facing such a stark choice of either going back into the Kremlin’s orbit or pursuing its western path and accession process to join the European Union.

Insisting that Mr. Kavelashvili does not have a popular mandate, Zourabichvili states, “I was elected by the people, unlike this president. He was elected by a college that is composed by the parliament and by other institutions which are all controlled by (ruling party) Georgian Dream. So it’s basically a president elected by one party. And my mandate does not stop at a specific date. The constitution says my mandate continues until a new president is elected. That means a legitimate president. So I’m waiting. As soon as we have new elections and the new president is elected, I’m happy to defer.”

We discuss the protest movement that was sparked by parliamentary elections in October which most EU countries judged to be neither free nor fair – and by Georgian Dream’s decision to suspend the EU membership process. “The most important demand is the return to the European path,” Zourabichvili affirms. “That’s what people on the streets have been demanding every day for practically 60 days now. Because what started this massive protest was not just the stealing of the elections. It was also the fact that the prime minister and the parliament – without a mandate from the population – went against the will of the population and said that we will stop our path towards Europe.”

We turn to western sanctions on Georgian officials deemed responsible for the police crackdown on protesters. While the EU has taken some targeted measures, broader sanctions have been blocked by Hungary and Slovakia – whose leaders are aligned with Georgian Dream.

“There have been American sanctions on (influential oligarch) Bidzina Ivanishvili, and we can already feel the nervousness of that elite about those sanctions, because American sanctions are what really counts,” Zourabichvili says. “But there is a real problem for the European Union, which has the ambition to have a real foreign policy in that part of the world – in the Caucasus, where there is also Armenia waiting to turn towards Europe. If the EU doesn’t have instruments, or if its instruments are blocked by one veto, then it will not be able to become a real player.”

She continues by outlining the geopolitical interests that are at stake:

“We have huge infrastructure projects that are waiting on the Black Sea. If China comes into the Black Sea port of Anaklia, as the ruling party in Georgia wants – it’s negotiating behind closed doors with China, in fact – then it’s Europe’s foreign policy that is challenged. The same if the ruling party can give China the second airport in Tbilisi.”

Zourabichvili attended President Donald Trump’s inauguration, and talked to prominent Republicans there. She says that Trump likely will not be guided only by sympathy for populist leaders and governments around the world.

“I think Trump is also a realist,” she says. “The main message that I heard at his inauguration was that he’s talking about a strong America. Well, how is America strong if a small country of 3.7 million people can suddenly turn away from the West, abandon the strategic partnership with the United States, and turn to China and Russia? And what does strong America do if the Black Sea is closed to the American fleet? So there is a whole strategic, real world that Trump has to confront, beyond sympathies for some ideologies.”

Programme prepared by Oihana Almandoz, Perrine Desplats and Isabelle Romero

Mainstream EU leaders have breathed a sigh of relief. After a Hungarian presidency marked by what they saw as damaging freelance diplomacy, the torch has now passed to Poland, which holds the reins for six months at a particularly turbulent time. There are huge questions in the EU about how to handle Donald Trump, about western support for Ukraine, about international trade, Europe’s competitiveness, and much else besides.

The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, is a veteran of the European political stage, having himself been a president of the EU Council for several years. But can he unite the EU when the political fragmentation of the continent seems to be increasing?

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown and Perrine Desplats

For our first Talking Europe interview with the new crop of EU Commissioners, we host Hadja Lahbib, who is in charge of preparedness and crisis management, as well as equality. Lahbib, a former foreign minister of Belgium, talks about the challenges of her extremely broad portfolio, covering Ukraine, Gaza, Syria, Afghanistan and Sudan. A common thread is the difficulties faced by women and girls in crisis situations around the world – something that links up with Lahbib's efforts to promote gender balance and women's rights in the EU itself.

Asked whether the EU is leading by example, when there is an obvious gender imbalance in the new European Commission, Lahbib replies:

"For sure not. But that's because of the reluctance of the member states. And it's also a reflection of what is at stake in our European Union. We are observing a backlash against gender balance everywhere – whether we're talking about the notion of consent in sexual relations, or about reproductive health and rights, or about abortion. We need to address these issues, because our values are at stake. We need to make sure that women and girls have the same perspectives for their future [as men and boys]. And when we talk about competitiveness, how can we be competitive when half of humanity is still suffering from the 'glass ceiling'?"

Lahbib shares her impressions of her trip to Ukraine, from where she had just returned when we recorded this interview.

"I have to say that I am back full of energy because Ukrainians are impressive in their resilience. They are completely future-oriented despite the difficult conditions, despite nearly three years of war. They are constantly adapting their tools, their equipment. We are going to learn a lot from them when it comes to a preparedness and crisis management And when it comes to equality – the second part of my portfolio – I mainly met women. Women are those who are left behind. The grandmothers, the women who are alone with children. We really need to support them. I went to Ukraine with an initial allocation of €148 million for humanitarian aid."

We then turn to the apparent political breakthrough between Israel and Hamas over Gaza, and discuss what that could mean for the EU's involvement. "Before talking about reconstruction, we need unhindered access for humanitarian aid," she says. "The majority of hospitals and public services are completely destroyed. Eighty percent of civilian infrastructure, of buildings, are destroyed. The majority of the wounded are women; girls and children. And the losses are tremendous – essentially women and children. So we need peace before talking about reconstruction."

Staying on the theme of humanitarian aid, we talk about the situation in Syria, and whether EU sanctions on certain sectors in the country should be temporarily lifted – as a group of EU member states has called for. Indeed, the US has already waived some sanctions to facilitate humanitarian supplies.

"What we don't want is an Assad 2.0 Syria," Lahbib says. "We want an inclusive Syria, capable of embracing all its population, in all its diversity. So we will judge the de facto authorities based on their actions and not on their words. We are waiting. There will be certainly be a discussion about the lifting of sanctions [at the foreign affairs council on January 27]. It will be an open discussion. But in the end we will need a consensus. We will need the agreement of all the [EU] member states."

She goes on to explain: "Humanitarian aid is not linked with those [political] principles. It's always unconditional. It's needs-based. My role is to assess the humanitarian conditions."

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown and Perrine Desplats

He has called the German chancellor an "incompetent idiot" and the country’s president an "anti-democratic tyrant". Perhaps such invective would not matter if Elon Musk did not have the influence that he does. But Europe is a key market for the tech billionaire, and it includes electric cars, space technologies and satellites – currently the topic of discussions between Musk's SpaceX and the Italian government – as well as social media platform X, where Musk has streamed a conversation with the leader of Germany's far-right AfD. That party is polling in second place ahead of crucial German parliamentary elections in late February. And of course, Musk has the ear of incoming US President Donald Trump.

So what influence could Musk have in a year of crucial elections, not just in Germany, but in other EU member states? And is he simply exercising freedom of speech, or interfering in the politics of European countries? We put the question to two MEPs.

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown and Perrine Desplats