The killing in the heart of Moscow of Vladimir Putin's general in charge of chemical weapons comes on the eve of the Russian president's traditional marathon end-of-year press conference. Putin is so far yet to comment on his country's precipitated drawdown from Syria after the fall of Assad, but he's sure to opine on the death of under-sanctions General Igor Kirillov, what with the arrest of an Uzbek suspect who's confessed to working for Ukraine.

Russia may seem exposed and weak, but time is not on Volodymyr Zelensky's side. The Ukrainian president is making the rounds at NATO headquarters, as the Alliance prepares for the return of a Donald Trump who's talked up a deal to end the war; an agreement that could redraw national boundaries in Moscow's favour.

Simply put, which is weaker: a Ukraine exhausted by a decade of fighting, or a Russia that's had to pivot to a wartime economy and still ask for Iranian drones and North Korean reinforcements? In the middle, there's Europe, which is divided over how much it’s going to have to invest in assistance and defence spending for what lies ahead.

Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Elisa Amiri and Ilayda Habip.