Dollar usually drops on bad news but rallies because traders automatically buy on the dip

Bad news is dismissed because the first quarter "doesn't count"

This puts greater pressure on the last 3 quarters to make up for the first quarter and still show growth

Expectations of a bump similar to last year are based on non-repeatable conditions - Obamacare and inventory build

Inventory to sales ratio is the highest it has been since 2009

What is the basis for dismissal of the bad news in Q1?

Data confirms that the consumer is already broke

Consumers will be hit with rising oil prices

Traders who are loading up on the dollar are ignoring all the evidence that they are wrong

The wake-up call will be like the sub-prime mortgage crisis

The same thing will happen in the Foreign Exchange Markets when they realize the story is not about a recovery but about another round of QE

Changing trend coming in the dollar

Changing trend in the oil market

Changing trend in the gold market

If we don't get a recovery in the summer how is the Fed going to raise rates in Q4?

Election year 2016 will likely see no rate hikes

Retail Sales missed Wall Street expectations with a bounce of only .9

March Small Business Optimism fell to lowest level in 9 months

Hiring Plans dropped to lowest level in 6 months

Business Inventories for February rose to .3 based on weak wholesale sales

Inventory to Sales Ratio holding at 1.36 (highest since July of 2009)

My radio broadcasts from a year ago predicted that the data was not reflecting reality

April Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -1.9, near a 2-year low

Employment down

Hours worked down

New orders down to 3-year lows

Prices paid went up

March Industrial Production dropped .6, missing expectations - 4th consecutive month below estimate

This news can't be blamed on April showers

Those who have been betting on the recovery are about to realize they made the wrong bet