The Bank of Canada cut interest rates this week for the 7th consecutive time, lowering the overnight rate to 2.75%—a level we haven’t seen since August 2022. But what really caught our attention wasn’t just the cut itself—it was what Governor Tiff Macklem said at the press conference. Macklem explicitly stated that tariffs are restraining household spending intentions, and in response, the BOC is acting to stimulate the economy. That’s right—he’s openly admitting that the Bank is working to revive spending, which in Canada, largely means propping up the housing market. This isn’t speculation. It’s policy. And it’s becoming increasingly clear that maintaining home prices is a top priority at the highest levels of government.

But what does this mean for Canadians, especially those with mortgages renewing this year? We ran the numbers: a homeowner who took out an $800,000 mortgage in 2020 at 1.8% will see their monthly payments jump by $927 if they renew today at a 4.39% fixed rate. That’s still 32% higher than what they were paying four years ago. While rate cuts are happening, they’re nowhere near enough to ease the burden of higher borrowing costs—at least not yet. On the inflation front, early warning signs are flashing yellow. The Raw Materials Price Index is up 11% year-over-year, the highest jump since 2022. The Industrial Product Price Index is also rising, historically a leading indicator of core inflation. And with 20% of businesses planning to hike prices by 6% or more this year, it’s possible that inflation could start creeping back up by Q4 2025. If that happens, we may not see as many rate cuts as the market is pricing in.

The uncertainty around tariffs is also crushing consumer and business confidence. The Index of Consumer Confidence has now dropped below Global Financial Crisis levels, meaning people feel worse about the economy today than they did in 2008. And with nearly 63% of Canadians saying it’s a bad time to make a major purchase, spending is slowing—bad news for businesses already holding back on investments. This hesitation is showing up in BC real estate sales as well. In February, home sales in BC fell 9.7% year-over-year, with average prices down 2.4%. The total sales volume hit just $4.8 billion, an 11.8% decline compared to last year. This is a major shift from the red-hot market we saw in 2021 and 2022, proving that even with rate cuts, buyers remain cautious.

Lastly, we take a deep dive into the growing wealth divide. Despite economic uncertainty, household net worth in Canada surged 1.4% in Q4 2024, adding $236.3 billion in wealth and bringing the total to $17.5 trillion. Over the past year, wealth climbed by 7.3%, even after adjusting for inflation. But here’s the catch: the top 20% of households now control 68% of all financial assets, a share that continues to grow. With interest rates coming down, asset holders will benefit the most, widening the wealth gap even further.

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