The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast

This week has been monumental for Vancouver's real estate market, with several key factors influencing housing and the broader economic landscape. Inflation has officially hit 2%, marking a significant milestone for the Bank of Canada (BOC) as it reaches its target for the first time in nearly four years. While the broader inflation rate stands at 2%, if the mortgage interest component is excluded, inflation would be just 0.9%, signaling a rapid decline in core inflation metrics. However, rental inflation remains elevated at 8.6%, though this is expected to decrease in the coming months as rent prices have been falling for about a year, potentially pushing inflation even lower. As a result, markets are now pricing in rate cuts at every BOC meeting until at least the summer of 2025, with an estimated 1.75 basis points reduction by July 2025. The five-year bond, crucial for mortgage rates, is now trending downward at 2.7%, the lowest in over two years.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve made a notable move by cutting its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, the first such reduction in over four years. This marks a shift from controlling inflation to supporting a slowing labor market. The Fed's decision to lower rates from 5.3% to 4.8% signals a major adjustment as inflation in the U.S. has fallen from a peak of 9.1% in mid-2022 to 2.5% in August, aligning closely with the Fed’s 2% target. Policymakers have indicated further cuts this year, with more anticipated in 2025 and 2026. 

Adding to the shake-up, the federal government of Canada announced that it will increase the price cap for insured mortgages from $1 million to $1.5 million, a surprise to both the industry and policymakers. While many in the real estate sector championed the change, it's important to examine who this adjustment really benefits. Although extending the amortization period to 30 years from 25 years helps reduce monthly payments by about 9%, it also increases the long-term interest paid by homebuyers, with an additional $80,000 paid over the life of a mortgage. 

More critically, this move likely pushes the price band of homes in this range up by 9%, doing little to address affordability. Historically, the CMHC was designed to help veterans and lower-income buyers, but this increase will likely push prices higher, benefiting banks and investors more than first-time homebuyers. With the minimum down payment on a $1.5 million home being $125,000, this policy change seems to cater more to affluent buyers, as only 15% of Canadian households could qualify for such a mortgage. Despite these hurdles, this adjustment will create more demand in the $1 million to $1.5 million price band, potentially driving prices higher, which contradicts the notion of increasing affordability.

This week’s developments reflect the complex and often contradictory forces shaping the Vancouver real estate market. Inflation is cooling, but rate cuts are on the horizon, and new policies, like the increase in the insured mortgage cap, seem to be helping banks more than first-time homebuyers. Housing starts are down, and developers are grappling with higher fees, all while household debt continues to climb. The fall real estate market in Vancouver appears to be on shaky ground, and without significant changes to housing policy or economic conditions, the outlook remains uncertain.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

In this episode, we dive into one of the most significant housing policy changes in British Columbia's history: the Small Scale Multi-Unit Housing (SSMUH) legislation and the province-wide densification of single-family home lots - but this time, with 3 different Architectural firms. This is likely the largest rezoning initiative we’ll witness in our lifetimes, and with such a massive shift comes a lot of uncertainty. What does this mean for housing affordability, development timelines, and the future of our cities?

To help unpack these complex topics, we are joined by leading voices from three prominent architectural firms in BC, all members of the FIELD COLLECTIVE, a collaborative group of small architecture practices. Together, they will share their insights on the SSMUH initiative, its implications for housing design, and how their industry is responding to these new policies.

Our guests today include Tony from TOAD Design, Jenny and David from 2 by 2, and Daichi from Bobo Arch. We’ll hear about their personal journeys in architecture, as well as how their firms are navigating this new legislative landscape.

One of the central issues of this conversation revolves around the province’s recent introduction of pre-approved housing designs. These designs are intended to streamline the development process, cutting down on costly and lengthy permitting times. But will this initiative actually drive down housing costs? Or could it result in more uniform, less site-specific designs that lack creativity and adaptability? Tony, Jenny, David, and Daichi will explore whether these pre-approved models offer real solutions or if they’re just another example of top-down policy lacking industry consultation.

Finally, we’ll get a preview of PLEX APPEAL, an open-air exhibition organized by the FIELD COLLECTIVE as part of the upcoming Design Vancouver Festival. This event will showcase innovative designs enabled by the new multiplex zoning rules, offering the public a firsthand look at what the future of housing in BC could look like.

Tune in to this episode for an insightful conversation on one of the most pressing topics in housing today. Learn how the SSMUH legislation and pre-approved designs could reshape the real estate landscape, and gain valuable insights from some of the brightest minds in BC’s architecture community. Plus, get all the details on PLEX APPEAL, and find out how you can attend this exciting event later this month!

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Plex Appeal Exhibition
September 28 - 29, 2024
Main & 21st Public Plaza
www.plexappeal.ca

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Tony Osborn, Architect AIBC, MRAIC, LEED APTony Osborn Architecture + Design Inc.#203 - 119 W Pender St, Vancouver BC  V6B 1S5o 604 283 5877 x100m 604 363 [email protected]

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David Tyl
Architect AIBC
Co-Founder
Twobytwo Architecture Studio
mobile: 604.317.7715
[email protected]
www.twobytwo.ca

The C4X project: www.twobytwo.ca/c4x
Instagram: @twobytwostudio


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Daichi Yamashita
Architect AIBC | Passive House Designer
Bobo Architecture | www.boboarch.ca
604-440-1374
instagram.com/bobo_architecture/ 

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

In the first week of September, the Vancouver real estate market received an update that reflects significant shifts. August numbers reveal that home prices have dropped even further, with detached homes now firmly in a buyer’s market—a term seldom used in Vancouver. Compounding this, the Bank of Canada (BOC) cut interest rates for the third time, and all indicators point to more cuts ahead. As we move into the traditionally active Fall market, many wonder if September will mark a turning point, leading to a rebound in prices, or if the downward trend will continue throughout 2024.

A closer look at the BOC's rate cut decision reveals that inflation has eased, with recent data showing inflation at a 40-month low. The central bank has reiterated its goal of bringing inflation down to 2%, and Governor Tiff Macklem’s dovish comments suggest that additional cuts are likely if economic data continues to support them. The financial markets have already priced in another 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a full reduction by December.

Interestingly, the BOC acknowledged the upward pressure on inflation from housing and shelter costs, even though national trends show rental rates and home prices have been falling for months. As these lagging indicators catch up, inflation is expected to ease further. Macklem also hinted that while inflation may drop, housing prices could begin to rise again as interest rates fall and market activity strengthens.

Bond markets have also responded to the recent rate cut, with the Canadian five-year bond dropping to an 18-month low of 2.84%, signaling that fixed mortgage rates could follow suit in the coming weeks. Additionally, contrary to expectations, the Canadian dollar has strengthened against the U.S. dollar following the cuts—a potential signal that the U.S. Federal Reserve might also be gearing up to reduce rates at their upcoming September meeting.

Turning to Vancouver's August real estate statistics, the market saw continued slow sales with a total of 1,896 transactions, marking a 17% year-over-year decline and a 23% drop from July. This represents the fourth consecutive month of falling sales, making August 2023 one of the weakest on record. 

The sales-to-active listings ratio sits at 14%, down 3% from last month and marking the fifth monthly decline in a row. We use this metric to determine if we are in a Buyers or Sellers' market. Detached homes are seeing a ratio of just 9%, deep in buyers' market territory. Meanwhile, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) recorded its third consecutive monthly decline, down 0.2% month-over-month and 0.9% year-over-year, bringing the benchmark price to $1,195,900.

While the median price has fallen to $945,000 and the average price to $1,252,000—both back to January 2024 levels—the HPI remains a more stable indicator, smoothing out some of the month-to-month volatility.

As we head into Fall, the big question remains: will inventory continue to rise as sales volumes decrease, as seen after the previous rate cuts, or will the market stabilize? With 1,050 new listings and 205 sales recorded in the first two business days of September, the upcoming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory for the rest of the year.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

As inflation reaches its lowest level in over three years, the Bank of Canada's (BOC) rate cut predictions are becoming increasingly aggressive. While this might be a relief for mortgage holders, it signals significant economic distress. The BOC may need to cut rates rapidly to prevent a potential global financial crisis (GFC)-level event, but the question remains: will these cuts come fast enough to stabilize the economy?

This economic uncertainty is having profound effects on the Vancouver real estate market. August data shows falling prices, a trend that has continued for three consecutive months. With the five-year bond yield dropping to a 17-month low, and fixed mortgage rates expected to decline further, the affordability of Vancouver homes remains a challenge, though slightly more attainable. This is particularly relevant as the fall market approaches with high inventory levels, potentially prompting some buyers to enter the market, sensing a brighter housing landscape than in the past two years.

Mortgage holders approaching renewal in the next 24 months might find relief as rates are likely to be lower than when the overnight rate peaked at 5%. The so-called "renewal cliff" may not be as daunting as once feared. Since June 2023, approximately one million mortgages have been obtained or renewed, and many of these could now be renewed at lower rates, a trend that will likely continue as rate cuts are anticipated in the coming months.

However, the broader economic outlook remains troubling. Building permits are plummeting, with significant drops in single-family and multi-family permits across Canada, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. This decline could lead to future housing shortages if sustained, as new home sales have already hit record lows, particularly in Toronto, where sales are 70% below the 10-year average.

The mortgage market is also showing signs of strain, with a 15% year-over-year drop in originations in June, though it's too early to determine if this is a trend. The growth rate of new mortgages remains consistent but below the growth in household income, which may keep regulatory bodies like OSFI satisfied. Fixed-rate mortgages remain popular, though variable rates are starting to see an uptick as future rate cuts loom.

Consumer sentiment is low, with the Consumer Confidence Index lingering in the 60s, a level typically seen before a recession. Rising insolvencies, both consumer and business, coupled with declining consumer spending, add to the financial uncertainty many are feeling.

The rapid population growth driven by immigration is also a contentious issue. The government's recent actions to slow this growth, particularly by restricting low-wage temporary foreign workers (TFWs) and reducing permanent resident targets, reflect the strain on housing, jobs, and public services caused by this influx. This policy shift comes after a period of extreme measures, such as massive overnight rate hikes and a quadrupling of immigration rates, which have contributed to the current economic challenges.

Finally, rising building costs, exacerbated by new import tariffs on steel from China, further complicate the housing affordability issue. These tariffs, set to take effect in October, will likely push home prices higher, despite government rhetoric about making housing more affordable.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

In this insightful episode, we sit down with Mychal Ferrera from the Bank of Montreal to discuss the latest trends and forecasts in the real estate and mortgage markets. We dive deep into the current market climate, exploring whether the industry is picking up momentum or if the market is still stagnant. Mychal provides an insider's perspective on what’s happening on the ground, giving listeners a clear understanding of the market's temperature.

We also tackle the highly anticipated rate cut expectations for September. Mychal shares BMO's forecast on the Bank of Canada's likely moves and discusses the potential impact of rate cuts in the U.S. on Canadian markets. This leads to a broader discussion on whether buyers and sellers should continue to wait for better rates or take action now.

With the economy facing challenges such as rising unemployment, slowing GDP, and recent changes to the capital gains tax, we discuss the increasing levels of arrears, defaults, and corporate insolvencies. Mychal provides valuable insights into how these economic shifts are affecting homeowners in Vancouver—whether they are restructuring their debt, finding ways to pay their mortgages, or, in some cases, being forced to sell.

As we look ahead, we delve into the debate between variable and fixed mortgage rates. Mychal shares what’s currently more popular among homeowners and offers his expert recommendation on which option might be best, considering the possibility of lower rates in the coming 18 months.

We also take a look at the pre-sale market, how to protect yourself against rising interest rates by getting a rate hold through the Bank of Montreal for up to 3 years to ensure rates don't surprise you upon completion. 

We round out the discussion with an exploration of whether Canada is on the brink of a recession and whether the Bank of Montreal expects us to fall into a recession or not what that could mean for the housing market.

Whether you're a homeowner, a prospective buyer, or simply interested in the latest economic trends, this episode is packed with actionable insights. Tune in to hear our discussion with Mychal Ferrera's expert advice and learn how to navigate the current market conditions.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

In this episode, we sit down and revisit the rapidly shifting rental market landscape with returning guest Keaton Bessy, Property Manager and Owner of Greater Vancouver Tenant and Property Management (GVANTPM). The last time Keaton joined the show 8 months ago, rental rates were steadily increasing month after month, with no signs of slowing down. 

However, the market has since undergone significant changes. A surge in inventory, elevated rental rates, the banning of Airbnb in secondary properties, and recent modifications to residential tenancy laws have collectively reshaped the market dynamics. Keaton dives into the differences between what we are reading compared to his on-the-ground insights into these developments.

The discussion begins with a market overview, highlighting that while rental rates remain high, Vancouver and Ontario have seen a notable softening year over year. Despite this, Vancouver continues to be the most expensive rental market in Canada, with the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment down 8.4% sitting just over $2,750 a month and a two-bedroom down 6.4% from last year but still well above $3,650. 

The discussion explores what could be causing a drop in the rental market and whether this softening is a result of a recent surge in inventory, a rise in unemployment figures, or if it is influenced by broader government policy decisions.

The conversation then shifts to the impact of immigration on the rental market. With a record 1.2 million person year-over-year increase in Canada's population, primarily driven by non-permanent residents, we examine whether the current softening of rental rates is a temporary blip or indicative of a longer-term stabilization trend. Keaton shares his views on whether these immigration trends will continue to apply upward pressure on rental prices and inventory.

The episode also touches on the dynamics of the mortgage market, where rising mortgage originations and potentially lower carrying costs are discussed. The hosts question whether these factors might lead to a future decrease in rental rates or if available inventory levels will continue to play a more significant role in determining rent prices.

Lastly, and perhaps most interestingly we delve into a recent and controversial ruling by the Residential Tenancy Branch (RTB) in Vancouver, which approved a 23.5% rent increase over the next two years for a local landlord. 

This decision has sparked widespread attention capturing more than 325,000 views in just a couple of days, and Keaton, who broke the story has been closely monitoring the situation and provides an in-depth analysis of the ruling and its potential implications for both landlords and tenants in Vancouver. 

Throughout the episode, you will gain a comprehensive understanding of the evolving rental market and what these changes mean for property owners and renters alike.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has recently undergone a significant shift in its monetary policy focus. Over the past two years, the central bank aggressively hiked interest rates to combat soaring inflation. These efforts have largely paid off, as inflation has been brought under control. However, this success has come at a cost—economic growth has been throttled, leading to rising unemployment and a surge in business insolvencies. Recognizing the need to pivot, the BoC is now shifting its priorities from solely fighting inflation to supporting economic recovery. The forecast for interest rates is now tilted towards cuts, with expectations of a pronounced decrease over the next two years. Mortgage rates are also anticipated to decline in tandem, offering some relief to homeowners renewing their mortgages during this period.

As the BoC prepares to cut rates, it's essential to understand the implications for the mortgage market and the broader economy. The conversation has moved from concerns about inflation to worries about economic stability. Despite two years of rate hikes, the mortgage arrears rate has seen only a modest increase, from a low of 0.14% to 0.19% in May. Historically, arrears tend to rise after interest rate cuts begin, and this pattern is likely to repeat as the economy grapples with higher unemployment. However, even if arrears rates double, they would still be within long-term averages. The close correlation between unemployment and arrears suggests that as unemployment rises, so will arrears, though it may take a year or more before rate cuts start to reverse this trend.

The broader economic landscape is also undergoing shifts. Canada's population growth remains strong, driven largely by non-permanent residents, who account for the majority of the increase. In the second quarter of 2024, the country saw a record 1.2 million year-over-year population growth, slightly higher than the first quarter. However, there's growing debate about whether this level of immigration is sustainable, with some arguing that the current rate is too high. Immigration has now become a more pressing issue in Canada than even climate change, with half of Canadians believing that the country is accepting too many newcomers. The government has set a mandate to reduce the number of non-permanent residents, but achieving this goal may prove challenging.

In the mortgage market, originations are on the rise, surpassing levels seen from 2016 to 2019. Three and four-year fixed-rate mortgages remain the most popular choice among borrowers. Most mortgage renewals will take place in 2025 and 2026, at a time when the overnight rate is expected to be around 3%, a manageable level for those who took out mortgages when rates were near 0.25%. National housing inventory, while up from its 2021 low of 90,000, remains below long-term averages, with no signs of a dramatic increase in listings. Alberta and Saskatchewan are the only provinces where inventory is trending down, while others are seeing a gradual rise. As we move into the fall market, with rate cuts on the horizon and stable conditions, a balanced housing market is expected to continue for the remainder of 2024.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

This week has brought significant developments to the Vancouver real estate market, with major changes both locally and internationally that are poised to impact buyers and sellers alike. The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady, but signaled potential rate cuts as early as September due to a cooling job market and easing inflation. 

This announcement, coupled with disappointing U.S. job growth and a rising unemployment rate, has led to market volatility. The Sahm Rule, which predicts a recession when the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points within a year, has been triggered, adding to fears of an economic downturn. As a result, markets are now pricing in U.S. rate cuts below 4% over the next 12 months, which could open the door for similar or more aggressive reductions in Canada in 2024.

Locally, the B.C. government’s abrupt reversal of newly enacted tenancy laws has caused further uncertainty, broken trust and further aggravated landlord/tenant relationships. Originally, the law extended the notice period for vacating tenanted properties from two to four months, but widespread backlash from the real estate industry & the general public prompted a quick amendment to three months. 

Adding to the complexity, the Federal government introduced 30-year amortizations for first-time home buyers (FTHB) on August 1, with the intention of making homeownership more affordable. However, while monthly payments might be lower, the total interest paid over the life of the mortgage will be higher, effectively increasing costs for buyers. 

This policy, like previous initiatives, appears to have been implemented with little consultation and may benefit Banks more than homebuyers - or anyone for that matter. The impact on the market remains to be seen, but it is clear that such measures are more about political optics than providing meaningful relief. 

At the same time, Canadians are grappling with an increasingly burdensome tax environment, with 47% of income now going toward taxes—more than what is spent on shelter, food, and clothing combined. This high tax burden makes it difficult for many to save for a down payment or enter the housing market, exacerbating the challenges facing potential homebuyers.

The latest real estate statistics for July indicate a softening market in Vancouver. Average home prices dropped by $60,000, and total sales were 5% below both the previous month and the same time last year, marking the third consecutive month of declining sales. The market appears to be grinding to a halt, with buyers hesitating due to high costs and economic uncertainty. 

New listings also decreased for the third month in a row, although overall inventory remains high, particularly for detached homes, which are now at a five-year high. 

Overall, the Vancouver real estate market is entering a more conservative phase, characterized by slowing sales, high inventory, and softening prices. With economic uncertainty and a high cost of living, many potential buyers are holding off, waiting for clearer signs of stability or more favorable conditions. As the market adjusts to these recent developments, both buyers and sellers will need to navigate a complex and rapidly changing landscape.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

The economic landscape in both the US and Canada is showing significant shifts that have important implications for homeowners, the housing market, and the broader economy. Recently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) made a notable move by cutting interest rates by 0.25%, hinting at further cuts to come. This action aligns with market expectations, with a cumulative 0.5% cut so far and forward guidance pointing to an additional 0.50% reduction, potentially ending 2024 at a 4% rate. This decrease from 5% to 4% has offered some relief to variable mortgage rate holders. For instance, a $500,000 mortgage would see monthly payments drop from $2,684 to $2,387, a substantial annual saving of $3,600 or about 12%.

In the United States, inflation has eased from 3.3% to 3%, primarily due to lower consumer spending, raising the likelihood of a rate cut in September by 85.7%. The Federal Reserve has maintained a 5.5% rate for 12 months, a full 100 basis points higher than Canada’s current rate. As both countries trend towards lower inflation, the sentiment grows that inflation is under control, with a path to 2% inflation expected within a year, accompanied by gradual rate cuts potentially ending at 3% by late 2025.

However, the housing market’s health is nuanced. While mortgage originations are increasing, signaling a potential recovery, several key metrics still require careful consideration. In Canada, rental market dynamics are shifting significantly. The recent CPI print showed an 8.5% year-over-year increase in rent, though the month-over-month increase was the lowest in two years, influenced by a record number of rental completions. There are currently 140,000 rental units in the construction pipeline, expected to add 6% more rental stock nationally and 15% in British Columbia over the next two years. This surge in supply might alleviate high rental rates, but challenges persist as private investors shy away from rental investments due to new policies. For instance, Bosa recently halted two purpose-built rental towers due to financial unfeasibility driven by new amenity cost charges and revised development cost charges.

Housing starts have been declining steadily for three years, with new starts down 9% nationally in June to 241,000, below expectations of 255,000. Building permit applications also dropped 12% in May, indicating potential future supply constraints. In British Columbia, permits fell 53% month-over-month, partly due to a rush to secure favorable CMHC financing before regulatory changes.

Despite these challenges, there are signs of stabilization. Mortgage originations rose 0.3% month-over-month in May, with annual growth at 3.5%, suggesting a potential bottoming out in late 2023. Predicted future rate cuts could further support this recovery over the next 18 months. Fixed-rate mortgages, particularly 3 and 4-year terms, dominate new loans, accounting for 55% of all new mortgages.

As we approach the end of the month, preliminary sales data shows a balanced market for the second consecutive month, with slight declines in median and average home prices. Inventory levels and sales figures are stabilizing, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the housing market. However, the overall economic environment remains complex, requiring ongoing monitoring of key metrics and trends.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

In June, inflation unexpectedly dropped from 2.9% to 2.7%, surpassing expectations of 2.8%. Despite this decrease, the shelter cost index remains a significant driver of inflation, with a current increase rate of 6.2%, compared to 4.8% last year. Mortgage interest costs surged by 22%, and rent has increased by 8.8%, marking the highest rise since March 1983. However, excluding shelter costs, consumer prices only rose by 1.3%. 

This better-than-expected inflation report led to market predictions of a 90% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming Bank of Canada (BOC) meeting. With employment at 22-year low and business insolvencies rising, a 0.25% rate cut seems likely, potentially bringing the current rate of 4.5% down, which we hope is still high enough to exert downward pressure on inflation. The impact on the housing market remains uncertain; another rate cut might increase the number of sellers, although buyers seem to remain on the sidelines. 

Retail sales data also supports the likelihood of a rate cut. Retail sales fell by 0.8% month-over-month, and excluding volatile items, they dropped by 1.4%. In 2024, retail sales increased in only one month and have been flat since 2022, despite a 6% increase in the population. This stagnation suggests that Canadian consumers are financially stretched, likely due to high mortgage payments.

 Housing starts provide further context to the economic challenges. In April, Prime Minister Trudeau promised to build 3.87 million homes by 2031. However, housing starts fell by 9% month-over-month in June and are down 14% from the same month last year. To meet Trudeau's target, housing starts would need to double from last year’s levels, but they are currently 114% below the required mark. The situation is particularly dire in British Columbia, where starts fell by 12% and are 38% below June 2023 levels. In Toronto, new condo sales, a leading indicator for housing starts, are at their lowest since 1997. 

This decline contradicts the government's promises, with little incentive for builders to increase housing supply due to rising taxes, fees, and restricted access to affordable credit. The government's efforts have only expanded the size of the government by 42% since 2015, without noticeable improvements in efficiency.

The Prime Minister and parts of his cabinet have also been flirting with the idea of a primary home equity tax with a government-funded think tank, Generation Squeeze. This proposed tax aims to address housing inequity by adding a surtax on homes valued over $1 million, supposedly affecting only the top 12% of high-value homes. Critics argue this approach is politically motivated and overlooks the real issues driving housing prices, such as immigration, development costs, and availability of credit - plus in markets where the average house price exceeds $1mil are many. 

Market updates indicate that housing prices fell in June for the first time in 2024 and are expected to drop further in July. As of July 29th, average prices were down by $68,000, and median prices by $10,000. Sales volumes are slightly lower than last year, indicating a slow market. The rest of the summer is expected to see a gradual decline, with potential market stimulation in the fall if there is a third rate cut and an increase in inventory. 

Overall, the Canadian economy is facing significant challenges with inflation, housing,

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com