Every year, we make real estate predictions knowing full well they’re as much a reflection of the moment as they are a guess about the future—and 2025 proved just how quickly the ground can move beneath your feet. In this episode, we hold ourselves accountable and revisit the bold calls we made last January: what we nailed, what we completely missed, and what actually unfolded in Canada’s economy and housing market along the way. We start with the big economic drivers that were supposed to shape the year. 

We debated recession risk, population growth, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, mortgages, arrears, and government policy. Some calls landed squarely—like inflation finishing near 2.2% and the Bank of Canada settling close to where we thought. Others, like population forecasts and recession timing, were blown apart by an unexpected demographic reversal, stronger-than-anticipated labour resilience, and policy shifts few saw coming. The population story alone flipped every expectation: instead of adding hundreds of thousands, Canada actually started shrinking by Q3—something unprecedented in modern history—and that shock flowed straight into housing demand, pricing power, and sentiment.

From there, we turn to housing fundamentals, where reality humbled just about everyone. We recap how sales volumes fell instead of rising, how inventory surged far beyond expectations, how the pre-sale market nearly froze, and how price performance told a very different story than most forecast. Rental markets softened, luxury retreated, and Greater Vancouver’s “winner” markets were fewer and far more nuanced than anyone predicted. 

We didn’t shy away from calling our misses what they were—some wildly optimistic, others too conservative—but each reveals something important: this market continues to behave in ways that challenge even the most experienced economists, analysts, and practitioners. Along the way, we contrast our calls with prominent bank forecasts, highlight the global and political developments that no one had on their radar a year ago, and show how quickly “consensus” can turn to fiction.

This episode isn’t about pretending foresight; it’s about learning in hindsight. It’s a candid, data-driven reflection on a year where expectations collided with reality, where economic resilience defied narrative, where policy failed to align with planning, and where Canada’s housing story took another unexpected turn. If you enjoy a mix of humility, humour, uncomfortable truth, and meaningful takeaways, this is one of those episodes that reminds everyone—industry pros included—that predicting real estate is far from easy. 

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

As we head into 2026, population is no longer just another economic talking point — it has become one of the single most powerful forces reshaping Canadian real estate & the economy. For the first time in modern history, Canada’s population is shrinking, and the effects are immediate and profound. Ontario and British Columbia — the country’s largest and most expensive markets — are now posting negative annual population growth for the first time ever. After years of record inflows, the pendulum has swung sharply in the opposite direction. 

Non-permanent residents are leaving in record numbers, permanent residents are quietly exiting the country at near-historic highs, and government targets suggest this outflow may continue for the next two years. The last time Canada experienced a demographic shock, it was driven by rapid population acceleration — and it rewrote housing dynamics overnight. Now we are watching the same type of historic shift, only in reverse, and the consequences are every bit as significant.

Those consequences are already showing up in the housing market. Canada is delivering the largest volume of purpose-built rental construction in history at the exact moment demand is softening. Rental inventory is surging, vacancy rates are climbing, incentives are returning, and the national market is clearly moving toward cheaper, more competitive rents. 

That may temporarily make renting feel like the smarter financial move, but history is unequivocal: the long-term wealth gap between renters and owners remains enormous, and demographic shifts don’t change that reality. 

Nowhere is this more evident than in Toronto, where the condo market has all but stalled — sales have collapsed from record highs to generational lows, new project launches have effectively halted, and completed but unsold units are stacking up at levels never recorded before. It is the clearest example of what happens when the wrong kind of supply finally outruns broad market demand in an economy built on perpetual growth assumptions. Currently, dwellings under construction is running at 500% more than the population growth rate when the historical average is 50%.

And yet, the broader economy still sends mixed signals. Mortgage growth has recently ticked up, supported largely by first-time buyers stepping in where investors and move-up purchasers have stepped back. Retail spending shows households remain cautious. Sentiment readings are improving - considerably in the business sector but insolvencies in places like B.C. are quietly hitting new records. At the same time, household net worth is sitting at all-time highs, driven by financial markets that reward those already positioned at the top. 20% of Canadians own 70% of Canadian Assets! 

Affordability, meanwhile, has “improved” — but only relative to a crisis peak. Even after seven quarters of easing, ownership costs are still near the worst levels Canada has ever seen, and with rates likely holding into 2026, further progress may need to come from unpopular but necessary price declines rather than overall policy relief. In this weeks podcast, we break down this critical demographic turning point — what a shrinking population truly means for housing demand, pricing power, rental markets, developers, mortgage holders, and anyone trying to make a disciplined real estate decision in the year ahead.

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Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

As we close out 2025, the data coming across the wire is some of the most consequential Canada has seen in decades—and it is quietly rewriting the playbook for real estate in 2026. For the first time in modern history, Canada’s population is shrinking, not growing. At the same time, rental vacancy rates are climbing to multi-decade highs, rents are falling, developers are pulling back, and interest rates are no longer clearly on a path down. And yet, in what feels like a contradiction, headline employment, GDP, and inflation continue to beat expectations. In this episode, we unpack how these cross-currents collide—and what they mean for housing prices, investors, homeowners, and anyone facing a buy, sell, or mortgage renewal decision in the year ahead.

The most important shift begins with population. Canada’s population fell by roughly 76,000 people in Q3, a 0.2% quarterly decline and the largest contraction on record outside of pandemic border closures. Annual population growth has slowed to just 0.2%, the lowest level ever recorded. This reversal is almost entirely driven by non-permanent residents—foreign students and temporary workers—who accounted for nearly all population growth between 2022 and 2024. That trend has now flipped. 

Canada lost 176,000 non-permanent residents in a single quarter, bringing their share of the population down to 6.8%, with federal policy targeting closer to 5% by 2027. For housing, this is seismic. The demand tailwind that drove rents, prices, and pre-sales for years has disappeared just as housing completions and rental construction approach record levels. The result is straightforward: softer rents, rising developer inventory, and growing caution among investors—a dynamic that may not fully bottom out until 2027.

Rental data confirms the shift. Vancouver one-bedroom rents are down 8% year-over-year, national rents have fallen to their lowest level since mid-2023, and vacancy rates have surged. Vancouver’s purpose-built vacancy rate reached 3.7%, the highest since 1988, while Toronto hit 3% for the first time since the pandemic. Importantly, the largest wave of rental completions is still ahead. While falling rents offer short-term relief, they also widen the monthly gap between renting and owning—pushing some Canadians toward renting longer. Yet the long-term wealth divide remains stark when comparing long term outcomes between homeowners’ median net worth (on average 10 to 19 times higher than renters’) - depending on age group. Short-term affordability and long-term wealth creation are moving in opposite directions.

Housing supply tells a similar story of imbalance. National housing starts are uneven, single-family construction is shrinking, and major B.C. markets—including Vancouver—continue to slow. National home prices have fallen 21% from their 2022 peak, returning to 2017 levels in real terms. In Greater Vancouver, benchmark prices are set to fall for a tenth straight month, ending the year near three-year lows.

Taken together, this is not a crisis—but it is a reset. 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined less by momentum and more by discipline, selectivity, and long-term strategy. And for those paying attention, the data isn’t just noise—it’s a market signal.

Join the webinar:  www.laidlercapital.com/emptynesters?ref=thevancouverlife

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

It has been just 18 months since British Columbia launched Bill 44—the Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing (SSMUH) initiative—and already the landscape of urban development in the province has shifted in ways few could have predicted. Hundreds of multiplex permit applications have been submitted across B.C., the first wave of completed projects is beginning to emerge, and municipalities that once resisted density are now formally adopting the provincial framework. Just this week, the City of North Vancouver officially passed its zoning amendments, opening the door to multiplex development across one of the most land-constrained communities in the region.

On paper, this all signals momentum. But in practice, the path to delivering “Missing Middle” housing has proven far more complex.

Nowhere is that tension clearer than in Burnaby—one of the earliest and most enthusiastic adopters of Bill 44, and now one of the loudest voices pushing back. Residents have raised concerns about scale, height, setbacks, and parking. And in response, the city has revised its bylaws, reducing allowable height, shrinking lot coverage, expanding setbacks, and increasing parking requirements. These changes may soothe neighbourhood discomfort, but they also directly affect the number of new homes that can realistically be built. We also get into a new, one of a kind single family project launch in Burnaby that is uniquely suited for downsizers and/or growing families.

To help us understand what all of this means—not just for Burnaby, but for housing supply across the entire Lower Mainland—we’re joined by someone at the forefront of multiplex development: Bill Laidler. Bill is a leader in the Missing Middle space, with more than 400 homes in development. He is a developer, educator, and one of the most articulate advocates for creating generational housing—helping grandparents live near their grandkids, while unlocking attainable ownership for young families. His previous two appearances on this channel are among our most viewed ever.

Today, Bill walks us through the real impacts of Bill 44 so far: what’s working, what isn’t, and how recent municipal pushback could reshape the next decade of housing supply. We discuss the political friction between provincial goals and municipal authority, examine the Burnaby bylaw changes in detail, and explore whether multiplexes can meaningfully improve affordability—or risk becoming another high-priced, low-yield form of stratified ownership.

We also dive into the biggest challenges affecting feasibility today: high construction costs, stricter parking requirements, and the difficulty builders face securing financing for small-scale multi-unit projects. Bill offers candid insight into which barriers matter most—and what practical solutions could unlock real progress.

Finally, Bill shares a behind-the-scenes look at some of Laidler’s upcoming multiplex communities and how they aim to set a new standard for livability, design, and family-oriented density.

If you're wondering where the future of multi-family real estate investment is going and you want to understand where Missing Middle housing is truly headed—this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

Vancouver home prices have fallen for the 8th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in 33 months. The December data confirms what many have felt for weeks: the market is cooling faster than most anticipated. Sales are slowing, inventory remains elevated, and both developers and institutional investors are feeling the strain. In this week’s report, we break down what’s driving this latest leg down — from stalled projects and falling rents to REIT dividend cuts, mortgage renewal pressure, and what to expect from the Bank of Canada next week.

Let’s start with development. One of Vancouver’s biggest stories comes from Landa Global Properties, whose two-tower West End project was approved seven years ago but still hasn’t broken ground. Originally slated for 129 market rental units and $75 million in community amenity contributions — about $169,000 per home — the proposal has since been reworked to include 51 social housing units, fewer market rentals, and no Passive House certification, in an effort to make the project financially viable. Despite its prime location, the developer says rising costs, high interest rates, and market softness have made the numbers impossible to pencil. It’s a stark example of what’s happening city-wide: pro-formas no longer work, lenders are pulling back, and the result will be fewer new homes hitting the market in the years ahead.

The arrears rate, however, remains surprisingly stable. At 0.24%, it’s unchanged month-over-month — meaning 99.76% of mortgages are still being paid on time. Ontario saw a small uptick to 0.25%, but B.C. held steady at 0.21%. Despite six months into the “renewal wall,” Canadians are holding up better than expected. The real stress test arrives in 2026, when nearly one-third of all mortgages will reset at higher rates. Still, arrears remain 32% below their 30-year average, suggesting that for now, borrowers are managing the pressure.

An intriguing shift is showing up in the banking data: for the first time in 35 years, the total number of active mortgages is falling — down nearly 2% year-over-year. Normally that number rises 2–5% annually. Some of the decline may stem from mortgage payoffs during the pandemic’s liquidity boom, a slowdown in purchases, and the movement of lending to credit unions (which aren’t included in the national data). It’s another sign that both buyers and lenders are becoming increasingly cautious.

Turning to the data, Toronto’s prices are down 25% from the 2022 peak, and Vancouver’s aren’t far behind. December sales in Greater Vancouver fell 22% month-over-month to 1,844 units — the slowest pace in 25 years — and remain 21% below the 10-year average. Inventory dropped 12% from November but still sits 36% above the decade norm. The sales-to-active ratio fell to 13% (9% for detached, 14% for townhomes, 15% for condos).

Prices followed suit. The HPI benchmark slipped another 0.3% to $1,123,700 — down 5.5% from  March’s annual high — bringing values back to February 2023 levels. Median and average prices also declined, to $950,000 and $1.24 million respectively.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada is building homes at a record pace, but a closer look reveals a growing disconnect between what’s being constructed and what Canadians actually need, want, or can afford. While total units under construction sit at all-time highs, homeowner-oriented housing tells a very different story. Single-family home starts have fallen to levels not seen since 2009, even dipping below those of 25 years ago when adjusted for population growth. Over just three months, single-family starts are down more than 9%, condo starts are down over 11%, and yet purpose-built rental construction is up more than 30%. Building permits, the clearest leading indicator show Ontario and British Columbia at a 40-year low for single-family approvals, all but guaranteeing a future shortage of that housing type. The trajectory is clear: fewer Canadians will live in single-family homes, not by choice, but by supply design.

That supply shift is already reshaping the rental market. Canada now has roughly 180,000 purpose-built rental units in the pipeline, including an extraordinary 16% of British Columbia’s entire rental stock currently under construction. Contrast that with 2012, when fewer than 2,000 rentals were being built nationwide. Today, that number exceeds 35,000 annually. Vacancy rates, which hit a historic low near 1.5% in 2024, have already climbed to roughly 2.5%, with growing evidence they could push into the 4% range over the coming years. Rents are responding quickly. In Metro Vancouver, average one-bedroom rents fell in November to roughly $2,164 — down 9% year-over-year — with similar declines now seen across 17 of Canada’s largest metro areas. For investors, particularly institutions that piled aggressively into rental housing, this is an inflection point worth watching closely.

Against this backdrop, Ottawa has rolled out its latest housing intervention: Build Canada Homes, a new federal agency aimed almost entirely at affordable rental and social housing. The program brings long-awaited clarity around income-based definitions of affordability and outlines a three-pillar strategy focused on financing, building, and industrializing housing production. But it also exposes critical blind spots. The program does not target market-rate ownership or middle-class housing. Its standardized design catalogue emphasizes low-rise, low-density buildings, often with small unit sizes, at a time when cities are short family-sized homes and need density. Innovation is championed rhetorically, yet without a clear plan to reconcile higher upfront costs with housing volume or to modernize zoning and building codes that frequently block new construction methods before they scale.

Absorbing this supply would normally rely on strong population growth. That engine is stalling. Telecom data tracking mobile phone additions shows population growth slowing sharply, with 2025 on track for one of the weakest increases in over 70 years — and federal policy aimed at slowing it further.

Taken together, the picture is sobering. Canada is producing housing but increasingly rentals instead of ownership, volume instead of suitability, optics instead of outcomes. Until supply aligns with real demand, regulations match ambition, and confidence is restored, the housing crisis is unlikely to ease. The question isn’t just what Canada is building it’s who it’s being built for, and whether that answer still works.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada’s housing market is being pulled in more directions than ever. Court cases, collapsing construction, political battles, and rising costs are all converging at once — and the result is a level of uncertainty we haven’t seen in years. This week, we’re breaking down what’s making headlines, what’s just noise, and what could materially reshape housing across B.C.

We start in Port Coquitlam, where a decade-long Kwikwetlem land claim has resurfaced, putting major institutional sites from the Riverview lands to Gates Park, back into the legal spotlight. The case is currently paused while provincial negotiations take place, but after the recent Richmond ruling and new cases in Kamloops and Sun Peaks, municipalities are bracing for more challenges. With 95% of B.C. land unceded, these decisions could set the tone for years of litigation.

Cross-border tensions are rising too. Several Alaska tribal nations have now petitioned the B.C. Supreme Court, arguing they should have a legal voice in Canadian resource projects including the Red Chris Mine, a federally fast-tracked, nation-building development. Their claim builds on the 2021 Desautel ruling, which recognized U.S.-based tribes as Aboriginal peoples of Canada. If the courts agree again, the implications for Canadian sovereignty, consultation rights, and investor confidence could be enormous.

Meanwhile, housing supply is weakening. Starts are falling across B.C., with multi-family projects in larger centres down sharply. Calgary is considering reversing its citywide rezoning, Burnaby has scaled back Bill 44, and pre-sale markets continue to collapse — all of which point to even lower starts ahead. But there is one major outlier: the Heather Lands proposal has returned with towers as tall as 46 storeys, driven by a massive attainable-housing initiative involving the Province and the MST Partnership. If approved, 85% of the 4,200 homes on site would be below-market — a scale almost unprecedented in Vancouver.

Demographics are shifting too. The median homebuyer age is rising rapidly, especially in the U.S., where it has surged to 59. Wealthier, older buyers are dominating the market, while first-time buyers shrink to record lows. Canada hasn’t seen the same extreme jump yet, but affordability constraints suggest we’re heading in that direction.

On the financial side, the fallout from “Condo Day” continues as the Belvedere project in Surrey enters creditor protection, revealing just how fragile pre-sale economics have become. 

Nationally, CREA reports modest price increases and slightly higher sales, but Ontario’s downturn continues to drag the national average lower.

And finally, inflation cooled to 2.2%, but not for the reasons that matter most to homebuyers. Gas prices did the heavy lifting, while shelter costs — rent, insurance, and mortgage interest — continue pushing inflation higher. Core measures remain sticky, meaning cheaper mortgages aren’t coming anytime soon.

Policies, courts, construction, demographics, and financing are all colliding at once. Understanding which forces are temporary and which are structural has never been more important. 

This week, we break it all down — and what it means for your next move in B.C.’s housing market.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

For years, one of the driving narratives in Canadian real estate was deceptively simple: population growth equals home-price growth. Between 2021-2023, that tailwind was unmistakable — massive immigration, booming temporary residents, and a swelling demand for housing fueled price rises across the country. But that story is now changing. The latest federal budget from Ottawa projects zero population growth for the first time in modern history — a signal that the era of “Demographic Alpha” may be over.

In British Columbia, the October numbers underscore the shifting landscape. Home sales across the province dropped by 10% year-over-year, with only 6,370 units sold, yet the average price ticked up to $987,600 (a modest 0.8 % increase). At first glance, that may seem counter-intuitive—especially given the drop in the Greater Vancouver region, where prices actually fell 3.4%. What it reveals is a province where local dynamics are diverging: outside the Lower Mainland some markets are still inching up.

Nationally, every province except Ontario is showing year-over-year price increases. Ontario is down about 2.9%, even though pockets within have seen drops of 30 % or more. Two regions — Newfoundland and the Northwest Territories — are up more than 10%. So while the broader narrative remains “prices rising,” it’s the hyper-local story that matters.

Let’s go back to population. For decades, Canadian real estate bulls pointed to one immutable fact: we kept growing. New people meant new renters, new buyers, new demand — the structural scarcity argument. But Ottawa’s policy shift is turning the page. Between 2020 and 2024, population growth was arguably the strongest single driver of housing returns: it boosted rentals, shortened vacancy, supported pre-construction profits. Now the federal government’s reduced intake of permanent and temporary residents is removing that force. Growth dropping from 3% to near zero rewrites the math of valuations.

The consequences are broader than real estate: GDP growth in recent years has largely been powered by population expansion. With shrinking labour-force growth and rising youth and newcomer unemployment already flagged by the Bank of Canada, housing demand will be impacted. In effect, immigration policy is now acting as a rate hike — cooling demand without touching interest rates. For investors and developers, the easy “demographic premium” is gone.

Condo starts continue to collapse. New sales of condo units have tanked, and about 18 months later condo starts follow that trajectory. We’re seeing new-home construction at 15-year lows, fewer jobs in building trades, fewer units coming to market. And then there’s the demographic domino effect.

So what does this all mean for you—or for anyone who’s betting on real estate? The thesis of perpetual population-driven housing demand is under threat. Scarcity is no longer guaranteed. The fundamentals are shifting: slower growth means slower demand, longer lease-ups, muted appreciation. For developers, investors and agents alike: adaptation is key. The era of demographic tailwinds is fading. The question now is: who will stay ahead in the new chapter?

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

Vancouver home prices just dropped for the seventh straight month,  and the November stats paint a clear picture: momentum is fading, listings remain high, and the winter slowdown is now colliding with a wave of economic and policy turbulence. In this week’s episode, we break down everything from the federal budget fallout to land title uncertainty in B.C., and what all of it means for prices heading into 2026.

Let’s start with Ottawa. The latest federal budget was pitched as a housing plan, but for many Canadians dreaming of ownership, it landed more like a broken promise. Funding for the Build Canada Homes program was cut nearly in half, the MURB tax incentive was quietly shelved, and the much-hyped “development charge relief” was watered down. 

Instead, the lion’s share of new spending targets rentals and supportive housing — not ownership. Worse, the government has committed to running the largest deficit in Canadian history over the next five years. With Ottawa already paying $55 billion annually just in interest, that figure could easily double if rates stay higher for longer. For context, in the 1990s, when interest payments hit 33% of total revenue, the government faced a full-blown fiscal crisis. Today we’re at 10%, but trending up — and if that number hits 20% or more, markets, rating agencies, and mortgage rates will all start reacting. The key takeaway: Canada isn’t in crisis yet, but it’s walking a thinner line than most realize.

Meanwhile, jobs data surprised to the upside, with 67,000 positions added in October — nearly all of them part-time. Private sector hiring picked up for the first time in months, but construction jobs fell again, particularly in B.C., where the slowdown in new builds is clearly visible. In Metro Vancouver, employment dipped 0.3%, and the unemployment rate edged up to 6.3%. Economists now expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady into the new year. It’s a signal of cautious stability — the economy isn’t collapsing, but it’s far from thriving.

And then there’s the land claim shock. A recent B.C. Supreme Court ruling recognized Aboriginal title for the Cowichan Tribes over a section of southeast Richmond — an area including roughly 150 private parcels — and struck down parts of the law that made land titles “indefeasible.” The decision, now on appeal, effectively allows two forms of ownership to co-exist on the same land — something that no lender or insurer can practically underwrite. 

And finally, the November housing stats. Sales rose 21% month-over-month to 2,257 — the second-strongest month of 2025 — but still sit 14% below last year and 14.5% under the 10-year average. Inventory, at 15,797 active listings, is up 13% year-over-year and sits 36% above the decade norm. The sales-to-active ratio now rests at 14%. Detached homes sit at 11%, townhomes at 19%, and condos at 16%. The HPI benchmark price dropped again, down 0.8% month-over-month and 5.1% from the March peak to $1,132,500 — the lowest level since March 2023.

By the end of this episode, you’ll understand where prices are heading next, how the budget’s deficit math could affect mortgage rates, and why land titles — not just listings — are suddenly the biggest wildcard in B.C. real estate.

Foreclosures Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feD5v2ByQQc&t=5s  

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

This week on The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast — the Bank of Canada cuts rates again. But are we at the bottom of this cycle, or is another surprise still coming? As Ottawa gears up to unveil its massive 2026 federal budget, we break down how an $80 billion deficit could completely reshape Canada’s interest rate path and keep borrowing costs higher for longer. What does that mean for homebuyers, investors, and renters? We’ll unpack it all — from a slowing economy to a shifting housing pipeline that’s seeing record rental construction, collapsing building permits, and an alarming wave of cancelled condo projects.

The Bank’s latest 25-basis-point cut brings the overnight rate to 2.25%, right at the bottom of its neutral range. While that offers a small reprieve for variable-rate holders, economists warn we’re nearing the end of this easing cycle. With GDP growth projected at just over 1% for the next two years, and the Bank declaring that U.S. trade tariffs are “fundamentally reshaping Canada’s economy,” we’re entering an adjustment phase — not a boom. At the same time, the government’s expected fiscal stimulus could actually push rates higher over time, as bond markets demand more to finance record-level deficits.

Meanwhile, Canada’s housing pipeline is starting to fracture. New single-family and condo starts are plunging while rental construction surges to all-time highs. Over 110,000 rental units are now underway — half of all new housing starts in the country — even as student demand collapses and rent incentives pile up. In contrast, homeowner-driven construction is at its lowest since 2009, setting the stage for tighter resale supply in the years ahead. The collapse in new condo sales, record cancellations, and vanishing launches in the GTA only reinforce what’s coming — a short-term freeze that could sow the seeds for the next supply crunch.

Mortgage renewals continue to bite, with payments rising roughly $105 per $100,000 borrowed — the steepest increase since the early ’90s. Most borrowers are opting for three- to four-year fixed terms, betting that rates will be lower by mid-decade but perhaps discounting the inflationary pressures that could come with a massive budget. But with consumer confidence now at levels last seen during the financial crisis, Canadians are hesitant to make big moves — even as mortgage affordability improves to its best point since 2021.

And while October’s housing data shows signs of life — with sales volumes and prices at their highest levels of 2025 — the real question is whether this marks a turning point or just a temporary blip. Between fiscal stimulus, trade uncertainty, and a fragile job market, Canada’s housing story is once again at a crossroads. By the end of this week's episode, you’ll know exactly where this market is heading next — and how to position yourself before the next cycle begins.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com