The Canadian housing market is experiencing one of its most dramatic shifts in recent history, as the gap between government promises and market realities continues to widen. While policymakers have focused on demand-side measures like home-flipping taxes, actual housing starts have declined significantly. Meanwhile, an unprecedented number of rental units are entering the market, leading to falling rental prices.

Despite political rhetoric about increasing housing supply, overall housing starts have dropped 19% since their peak in 2021, now sitting at 239,000. However, rental unit construction is surging—up 44% year-over-year—comprising nearly half of all new starts. A record-breaking 144,000 rental units are currently in development, which is already having a profound effect on the market.

Rental rates, which had been rising for 38 months straight, have now fallen for four consecutive months, with national averages dropping from a peak of $2,196 in January 2024 to $2,100 today. Shared accommodation listings have surged 42% year-over-year, with rates declining 7.6%, signaling a shifting dynamic in the rental market.

While rental construction is booming, single-family home (SFH) completions tell a different story. In January 2025, only 3,800 SFHs were completed—the lowest monthly total since 1997. This ongoing supply crunch suggests that SFH prices may hold firm, even as the condo market weakens.

Inflation in Canada remains relatively stable, sitting at 1.9% in January, marking six consecutive months at or below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. However, the vast majority of inflation—1.3%—is being driven by shelter costs. Mortgage interest costs, a key driver of inflation, have been slowing, with the most recent increase at just 0.2%, the weakest since April 2022.

Employment Insurance (EI) claims are rising at an alarming rate. Nationally, claims increased 14% year-over-year, from 245,000 to over 280,000, while Ontario saw a 29% jump, from 76,000 to 98,000. These numbers suggest weakening economic conditions, which could drag down GDP growth in the months ahead.

On the mortgage front, December saw a staggering 90% year-over-year surge in mortgage originations, largely due to renewals. Many homeowners who locked in ultra-low rates five years ago are now facing a 35% payment shock, putting additional strain on household finances.

At the same time, housing inventory is surging. January saw an 11% month-over-month increase in new listings—the largest ever recorded. BC led the way with a staggering 29% increase. Pre-sale condo inventory in Greater Vancouver has nearly doubled from 7,000 to 12,000 units, pushing total available homes in the region above 25,000. This supply surge is making price increases unlikely in the near term.

February data indicates a shift in market momentum. After months of year-over-year sales growth, February saw a 12% annual decline in sales activity. Prices are also softening, with median home prices in Greater Vancouver dropping $20,000 to $900,000—a 10% decline from peak values.

_________________________________

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📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

Housing inventory is surging across Canada, with cities like Vancouver and Toronto seeing multi-year highs in new listings—Vancouver up 33% YoY (a 13-year high) and Toronto spiking 49% YoY (a 16-year high). This sudden jump in supply is driven by a mix of record completions, stricter tenancy laws, and struggling investors selling off properties due to rising mortgage costs and softening rental markets. 

Buyers, however, are staying on the sidelines, hesitant amid economic uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and the looming threat of tariffs, setting up a volatile 2025 housing market. In this episode, we break down these trends and explore whether demand will rise enough to absorb the flood of new listings—or if prices will continue their downward trajectory.

At the same time, Canada’s job market data is sending mixed signals. While official reports show strong job growth, deeper payroll data indicates three consecutive months of job losses, raising questions about the real state of employment. Long-term unemployment has doubled, permanent layoffs are climbing, and wage growth is slowing—all signs that economic hardship may be more widespread than headline numbers suggest. Historically, unemployment and mortgage arrears have moved in lockstep, and while arrears remain low for now, any continued weakness in employment could push more homeowners into financial distress, impacting the market further.

Despite today’s inventory surge, new home construction is already slowing dramatically, which could set the stage for a supply crunch in the coming years. In Toronto, new housing starts just hit a 30-year low, with only 51 new units (not buildings—units) started last month. In Vancouver, new home construction declined by 3% in December, the largest drop in three years, and detached home building permits are at their lowest level in 45 years. While today’s market feels oversaturated, this drastic slowdown in development could lead to a severe housing shortage in 2026–2027, potentially driving prices back up just as they are starting to cool.

With consumer insolvencies rising, job data inconsistencies, and supply declining in the long run, we could be witnessing the beginning of a major market shift. Will today's housing surplus be short-lived? Could government policies or economic conditions unexpectedly swing the pendulum in the opposite direction? Tune in as we break down the latest trends, challenge the mainstream narrative, and explore what’s next for Canada’s real estate market.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

Vancouver home prices took a sharp dive in January, hitting a two-year low, while Canada’s GDP shrank in November, signaling potential economic trouble ahead. Adding to the uncertainty, looming tariffs could push housing costs even higher, leaving both buyers and sellers wondering what’s next. If you’re planning to enter the market in 2025, this episode is essential as we break down the data and what it means for you.

The market is facing some serious headwinds and the threat of Tariffs is ever present. The potential for a 25% Tariff on key building materials like windows, drywall, and appliances would drive up construction costs, making new homes even more expensive. While a temporary 30-day pause has been put in place, tariffs could still take effect at any time. Earlier this week, when they seemed imminent, BMO’s chief economist projected 0% GDP growth for 2025, 8% unemployment, and aggressive interest rate cuts down to 1.5%. The Canadian dollar briefly hit a 23-year low, and the 5-year bond yield dropped to a 30-month low, signaling lower mortgage rates ahead. In fact, 5-year fixed mortgage rates are already available at 3.89%, a sharp decline from last year.

The BC Real Estate Association has painted a stark picture of what could happen if tariffs are imposed and Canada retaliates. They predict home sales could drop 30%, while active listings could rise 40%, leading to a more prolonged buyer’s market. Mortgage rates could climb to 6% by 2026, and while prices are still expected to rise, they would increase at a much slower pace. With so much uncertainty, many buyers and sellers may wait on the sidelines, similar to the early days of the pandemic.

At the same time, Vancouver’s housing market is seeing some surprising shifts. January sales were up 9% year-over-year, marking the strongest January in three years. But new listings surged 46% compared to last year, reaching one of the highest January levels on record. Inventory is climbing quickly, hitting 11,100 active listings, a 33% increase over last year. The last time inventory was this high in January was 2019, a year when prices declined slightly. The sales-to-active listings ratio now sits at 14%, confirming that we remain in a balanced market, but momentum is shifting.

Perhaps the biggest red flag is price movement. While the HPI benchmark price showed a slight increase in January, more immediate indicators tell a different story. Median prices dropped by $80,000, the largest single-month decline in 18 months, while average prices fell by $70,000, hitting their lowest level in two years. These sharp drops suggest that sellers may be adjusting expectations, while buyers hesitate to make moves in an uncertain environment.

So, what’s next? With sellers eager to offload properties and buyers waiting for more clarity on tariffs and interest rates, the spring market could be weaker than expected. Early February sales trends suggest a slower start, but as we approach the peak season, things could shift. Will prices stabilize, or are we heading into a prolonged downturn? Tune in as we analyze what’s happening in Vancouver real estate and where the market might be headed next.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

In this special episode of the Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast, we welcome Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Financial Group, to provide unparalleled insights into Canada’s economic landscape. With over 30 years of experience and a proven track record as one of the top economic forecasters in North America, Doug shares his expert analysis on the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut and its potential ripple effects across the economy, financial markets, and the Canadian housing sector.

We dive into hot-button topics like the impact of immigration policy changes on housing affordability, the long-term economic consequences of tariffs, and the evolving lending landscape in Canada. Doug also unpacks how the so-called “mortgage renewal cliff” may not be as alarming as it sounds, highlighting how Canadians are adapting to higher interest rates.

From analyzing regional housing trends—like Vancouver’s surprising resilience compared to Toronto’s cooling condo market—to exploring the broader implications of geopolitical tensions, this episode is packed with actionable insights for homeowners, investors, and anyone curious about Canada’s economic outlook.

Doug’s practical advice for buyers, his predictions for interest rates, and his views on what Canada must do to foster economic stability make this an episode you don’t want to miss. Whether you're planning your next real estate move or simply want to understand the forces shaping Canada’s financial future, this conversation will leave you informed and inspired.

Tune in now and gain a deeper understanding of the market trends that matter most.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

The final numbers for Canada’s housing market in 2024 are in, and they've revealed some unexpected trends. Despite challenges such as high interest rates and declining housing starts, national home prices rose by 2.5% last year, bringing the average home price to $676,640. Every province and territory saw price increases except for Ontario, which experienced a modest 1.7% decline. The Northwest Territories led the nation with a remarkable 34.8% price increase, followed by New Brunswick at 15.5% and the Yukon at 12.8%. British Columbia also performed well, with home prices rising by 5.9%, while Alberta saw solid growth of 9.4%.

Ontario’s slight decline, however, masks significant issues in the pre-construction condo market, particularly in Toronto, where sales hit a 28-year low in 2024. Newly constructed condos flooded the market, driving prices down by 10-15% or more in some cases as sellers undercut each other. Yet, when viewed at the provincial level, Ontario’s overall housing market showed resilience, with a decline that remains manageable by most standards.

Meanwhile, inflation continues to ease, as the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in at 1.8%—the second-lowest reading in 46 months. This marks a slight decline from December’s 1.9% and the 16th consecutive month of cooling mortgage interest costs, which dropped from 13.2% to 11.6%. Rent inflation also eased, falling from 7.7% to 7.1%. 

Inflation has now remained within the Bank of Canada’s target range for 12 straight months, with the broader CPI reading excluding mortgage interest costs coming in at just 1.3%. These metrics, coupled with a strong employment report, suggest the Bank of Canada may lower interest rates at its next meeting, with markets currently pricing in a 0.25% cut that would bring the overnight rate to 3%, its lowest level since August 2022.

This data reinforces the importance of understanding how hyper-local real estate markets operate. For instance, in Vancouver’s Mount Pleasant East neighborhood, half duplexes reached their highest prices ever in 2024, climbing 7% above the 2022 peak. By contrast, condos in the same area are 3% below their peak prices, and detached homes are down 9%. These variations emphasize the need for precise, localized market insights when making real estate decisions.

Next week we have Mr. Doug Porter, the Chief Economist for the Bank of Montreal coming back on the show to discuss how he sees the Canadian economy shaping up for 2025

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

This week’s episode is packed with crucial updates and insights that could directly affect your real estate decisions in 2025.

A much stronger-than-expected jobs report has thrown a wrench into predictions for interest rate cuts, potentially keeping the Bank of Canada on hold this January. With Canada adding 91,000 jobs last month, (far exceeding expectations) compounded by labour market strength is complicating the case for lower rates. However, not all is as it seems: 62,000 of those jobs went to workers over 55, and a significant portion came from public sector growth (44%!). We break down what this could mean for mortgage rates and why the 5-year bond yield is already climbing.

In Vancouver, affordability continues to be a challenge as recent policies are expected to push home prices higher. On the flip side, there’s good news out of Burnaby, where one of the first multiplex building permits has been approved. The timeline, fees, and offsite costs surprised even the developer—and might give hope to those exploring small-scale development opportunities.

We also tackle the ongoing affordability crisis, exploring how the ban on natural gas in new construction and new net-zero mandates are inflating the cost of homes. For example, a fourplex project now have an additional $150,000 for electrical upgrades, adding roughly $40,000 to the cost of each unit. These policy changes are a stark reminder to “watch what they do, not what they say” when it comes to government claims about building affordable housing.

Meanwhile, mortgage arrears are also starting to climb, with delinquency rates hitting a 9-year high in Toronto. Yet even as the headlines grab attention, the data tells a different story—arrears remain well below pre-pandemic levels, and the overall risk of panic is low. However, with 50% of mortgage holders set to face higher payments over the next two years (in excess of 30+%), it’s clear that financial strain is building for many Canadians.

We also take a closer look at the nearly 30% of homes listed for sale that are vacant. Are they former Airbnbs, second homes, or properties listed to dodge the vacancy tax? It’s a fascinating trend that raises more questions about the current state of the market.

And to cap it off, we’re excited to showcase a stunning family home on Vancouver’s prestigious Golden Mile in Kitsilano. Located on West 1st Avenue, this property boasts breathtaking ocean views, over $1 million in renovations, and one of the most luxurious primary suites you’ll ever see. Don’t miss this incredible listing—check it out at www.3262W1st.com

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

In this episode, we explore our predictions for the 2025 Vancouver Real Estate Market, diving deep into the economic and financial trends that will shape the year ahead. With Canada’s GDP growth expected to remain moderate, driven by immigration and resource exports, the potential for a mild recession looms if elevated interest rates continue to slow consumer spending and business investment. We analyze the possibility of economic turbulence while discussing key signals in sectors like housing, manufacturing, and retail. Meanwhile, Canada’s population growth is expected to drop considerably from before but will still be pushing the annual growth, to what extent remains to be seen. This sustained influx will fuel housing demand but could strain infrastructure and services.

On the employment front, the unemployment rate, currently at 6.8%, is projected to remain somewhat stable within the 6.5%-8% range. While population growth could create new job opportunities, sensitive sectors like construction and tech may see some challenges. Inflation, sitting at 1.9%, is anticipated to close the year between 2.0% and 2.5%, assuming stable monetary policy and limited disruptions in energy prices or supply chains. This outcome largely depends on US trade policy which has yet to be sorted out. 

The Bank of Canada’s interest rate, currently at 3.25%, is forecasted to ease slightly by year-end if inflation targets maintain and economic growth softens. In tandem, mortgage rates are likely to decline as well, with variable & potentially fixed rates dropping too. Despite these adjustments, Canada’s mortgage arrears rate, historically low at around 0.15%, may see a slight uptick as households adjust to higher payments on renewals.

Turning to real estate, we predict a steady recovery in sales volumes, with activity returning near the 10-year average, barring any significant rate fluctuations. The sales-to-active listings ratio which is currently signaling balanced market conditions may tick up into a Seller's market with more interest rate fluctuations. Inventory levels may see modest growth too as many who did not sell in 2024 will return to the market to try again. In the pre-sale market, developers are projected to cautiously release new projects, reflecting a gradual increase in buyer confidence. After an 8% decline in rental rates during 2024, the rental market is expected to stabilize though this will largely depend on immigration levels and the overall performance of the economy.

In this episode we also highlight the top markets poised to outperform the Greater Vancouver region in 2025. We look at Surrey and Langley as they continue to attract buyers with affordability and infrastructure investment among a list of other locations that we strongly endorse. Tune in and find out which areas those are!

This episode provides a comprehensive roadmap for navigating the opportunities and challenges of Vancouver’s 2025 real estate market. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor, these insights will help you stay ahead in a shifting landscape. Tune in to learn more about what to expect and how to make informed decisions in the year ahead or book a one-on-one exploratory call with us and we'll help guide you through this recovering marketplace.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

Welcome to the first episode of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast for 2025! As we kick off the new year, we start this year by reflecting on an intriguing 2024 in Greater Vancouver real estate. 

Today, we’re unpacking December’s freshly released market stats, analyzing how 2024 wrapped up, and exploring what’s on the horizon for 2025.

This is a special double-header episode where we’ll revisit our 2024 real estate predictions to see where we were right, where we missed the mark, and what new trends are setting up 2025 to be a dynamic and potentially surprising year.

Highlights from December reveal some fascinating trends. Sales reached their highest December total in three years, up 32% year-over-year, though still 15% below the 10-year average. New listings surged 26% year-over-year, marking the highest December total in three years. Inventory remains elevated, with December’s levels the highest since 2018 and 25% above the 10-year average•

The Sales-to-active ratios show balanced market conditions for the eighth consecutive month, with townhomes and apartments pushing us into the upper limits of a Balanced market.

In terms of pricing, Vancouver’s housing market defied more pessimistic predictions, with all three price metrics—HPI, median, and average prices—rising year-over-year. Notably, median prices climbed 4.5%, just 2% shy of the all-time high.

As we dive deeper, we’ll also compare Vancouver’s performance to Toronto’s market and national trends. While BC lagged behind the national average home price increase of 7.4%, it still holds the title for the highest average home price in Canada. Tune into the rest of the episode and find out where we right and where we went wrong as we review the predictions we made for 2024.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

Welcome to a special holiday edition of The Vancouver Real Estate Podcast! As we wrap up 2024, we’re thrilled to celebrate a major milestone—our channel hitting 5,000 subscribers on Christmas Day, doubling in size over the past year! This achievement means the world to us, especially for such a niche channel, and it’s all thanks to you—our viewers who have tuned in, shared our videos, and subscribed. As we move into 2025, we’re committed to improving the channel, fostering open conversations about Vancouver real estate, and connecting 1-on-1 through our Calendly link.

 Looking back, 2024 was a year of housing promises from all levels of government. Initiatives like Bill 44, which aimed to densify single-family neighborhoods, faced hurdles like municipal pushback and high taxes & community contribution fees. The federal Housing Accelerator Fund & Trudeau promised over 3.9 million homes but has yet to deliver any completed builds. 

 CMHC raised its mortgage insurance limit to $1.5 million, which helps buyers access more expensive homes but doesn’t address affordability. Meanwhile, policies like the anti-flipping tax are unlikely to curb rising prices but may reduce the supply of renovated properties, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

 The market also saw significant struggles, with pre-sale projects shelved, developer insolvencies up 36% year-over-year, and building permits near all-time lows. On the brighter side, 2024 marked the first-interest rate cuts in over four years, which has started to provide relief for buyers and developers alike. 

 
 Inflation remained below 3% throughout the year, though maintaining this stability amidst global uncertainty will be a challenge, particularly with political shifts like the return of Trump and Canada’s federal leadership changes. The Airbnb ban disrupted short-term rental markets, while stricter renters’ policies continued to deter smaller investors, limiting rental supply.

 
 As we head into 2025, the focus must shift from adding more policies to addressing the root issue: increasing housing supply by removing red tape and, ideally, reducing government fees and taxes. 

 Thank you again for helping us reach 5,000 subscribers, and we look forward to continuing this journey with you. Join us next week for a recap of December’s stats, and don’t miss our 2025 predictions episode on January 11. 

 
 Happy Holidays, and we’ll see you in 2025!

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

You’d think the housing world would quiet down by mid-December, but this week has been packed with significant developments. Inflation data showed a continued cooling trend, with November’s rate at 1.9%, marking four consecutive months below 2%. The shelter component also eased, but rents defied expectations, rising 7.7% year-over-year nationally despite sharp declines in major cities like Vancouver, where rents are down 10%. 

Rate cuts are back on the table, with the Bank of Canada expected to lower rates incrementally in early 2025, while variable-rate mortgages are regaining popularity. South of the border, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25%, signaling caution amid strong GDP and persistent inflation. 

The move widened the gap between Canadian and U.S. rates to levels not seen since 1997, weakening the Canadian dollar to under $0.70 USD and highlighting diverging economic paths between the two nations.

Canada’s labor market continues to struggle, with unemployment hitting a seven-year high and job vacancies plunging to a four-year low. Companies are hiring fewer workers, creating a troubling imbalance with less than one job available for every two job seekers. 

This dynamic reflects a worsening economic downturn, with nearly 20% of unemployed Canadians classified as long-term unemployed. The construction sector, a key pillar of the workforce, faces additional challenges as housing starts have declined significantly over the year, despite a recent monthly uptick. 

Large-scale building permits, which indicate future supply, are also falling sharply, particularly in Ontario. These trends raise concerns about the future of housing affordability and employment in an already strained economy.

Compounding these issues is political upheaval, with both Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Housing Minister Sean Fraser stepping down. Freeland’s tenure ended amidst criticism of Canada’s record deficits, with the Fall Economic Statement revealing a $62 billion shortfall—50% over budget. 

Meanwhile, B.C.’s 2024-2025 budget projects a staggering $9.4 billion deficit, the largest in provincial history. Fraser, who oversaw record immigration levels that strained housing and healthcare systems, has faced sharp criticism for his policies’ long-term impacts. With mounting government debt, declining investor confidence, and slowing immigration, the outlook for 2025 appears unpredictable. 

This perfect storm of economic uncertainty, housing struggles, and political shakeups underscores the challenges and potential opportunities that Canada faces heading into the new year.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com