Housing inventory is surging across Canada, with cities like Vancouver and Toronto seeing multi-year highs in new listings—Vancouver up 33% YoY (a 13-year high) and Toronto spiking 49% YoY (a 16-year high). This sudden jump in supply is driven by a mix of record completions, stricter tenancy laws, and struggling investors selling off properties due to rising mortgage costs and softening rental markets. 

Buyers, however, are staying on the sidelines, hesitant amid economic uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and the looming threat of tariffs, setting up a volatile 2025 housing market. In this episode, we break down these trends and explore whether demand will rise enough to absorb the flood of new listings—or if prices will continue their downward trajectory.

At the same time, Canada’s job market data is sending mixed signals. While official reports show strong job growth, deeper payroll data indicates three consecutive months of job losses, raising questions about the real state of employment. Long-term unemployment has doubled, permanent layoffs are climbing, and wage growth is slowing—all signs that economic hardship may be more widespread than headline numbers suggest. Historically, unemployment and mortgage arrears have moved in lockstep, and while arrears remain low for now, any continued weakness in employment could push more homeowners into financial distress, impacting the market further.

Despite today’s inventory surge, new home construction is already slowing dramatically, which could set the stage for a supply crunch in the coming years. In Toronto, new housing starts just hit a 30-year low, with only 51 new units (not buildings—units) started last month. In Vancouver, new home construction declined by 3% in December, the largest drop in three years, and detached home building permits are at their lowest level in 45 years. While today’s market feels oversaturated, this drastic slowdown in development could lead to a severe housing shortage in 2026–2027, potentially driving prices back up just as they are starting to cool.

With consumer insolvencies rising, job data inconsistencies, and supply declining in the long run, we could be witnessing the beginning of a major market shift. Will today's housing surplus be short-lived? Could government policies or economic conditions unexpectedly swing the pendulum in the opposite direction? Tune in as we break down the latest trends, challenge the mainstream narrative, and explore what’s next for Canada’s real estate market.

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