October 25, 2023

Bank Of Canada Holds Rates - Hikes May Be Over

25 minutes

Today's recent announcement that The Bank of Canada has opted to maintain interest rates at 5% marks the fourth instance of holding rates during the ongoing rate hike cycle. The decision comes in the wake of a press release highlighting several concerns, including the weakening global economy, the surge in oil prices, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and persistent inflationary pressures. Today we unpack that decision with Mychal Ferreira, Bank of Montreal's number 1 mortgage broker in the country.

Despite the apparent stability in rates, the Canadian economy continues to grapple with the aftermath of previous rate hikes, as evidenced by lower consumer spending and critical shifts in the housing market. Indicators suggest that the balance between supply and demand is gradually stabilizing, but the overarching concern remains the sluggish progress towards achieving price stability and the escalating risks of inflation. As a result, the door remains open for the possibility of further rate increases, emphasizing the cautious stance of policymakers.

Interestingly, markets had accurately anticipated the decision to hold rates, corroborating the notion that the current cycle of rate hikes might be reaching its culmination. Observing the larger picture of 2023, the year has witnessed a modest 0.5% increase in rates, providing some semblance of cresting rates considering the year before. However, for many Canadians, this minimal respite fails to offset the substantial impacts of the staggering 475 basis point hike experienced over the past 19 months and what it will do as mortgages terms mature.

With approximately 70,000 mortgages up for renewal every month and individuals increasingly resorting to lines of credit and credit cards to navigate the high rates, the strain of the elevated rates is palpable. The imminent renewal of 331 billion Canadian mortgages in 2024, originating from an era of relatively lower rates, will further underscore the real impact of the persistently high rates on households.

To shed light on the current mortgage landscape, Mychal highlights the significant impact of the rate hikes on those with 5-year fixed mortgages. With an average overnight rate of 1.75% when these mortgages were initially obtained, the current 5% rate implies a substantial increase in mortgage payments and the dynamics that Banks may need to offer to keep people in their homes.

There's growing sentiment that the trajectory of rates in today's marketplace are peaking for this cycle and are expected to hover around 4.5% by the end of 2024. Barring a black swan event, there's growing potential for a rate cut in the summer of 2024, followed by gradual adjustments to achieve a neutral rate over 2025.

Pre-sale valuations are also an area of concern, with many builds completing today. There are those who are experiencing valuation deficits and qualification issues because they did not pursue financing options at the time of their pre-sale purchase. We touch on how to avoid this and how folks are taking possession of their new builds today, with 30yr amortization periods at a 2.5% interest rate!

Contact Mychal: