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0:00 USDA and Corn Rally
6:10 The Funds
8:26 US/China Talks to Resume
9:39 USDA Reporting Problems
11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale

🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & Soybeans
US corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19.

For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%. 

📉 Funds Add to Shorts
CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers:
Corn: -4k contracts
Soybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August)
SRW Wheat: -10k contracts

🤝 US–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year.

🇨🇳 Export Sales Twist
Last week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season.

🛢 Soybean Oil Surprise
USDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand.