Jack Mitchell has shared his bets with us for monitoring purposes for the best part of a year and have been very impressed by his results.

He is on the podcast this week to talk about how he has gone from keen amateur to full-time professional in a ...

Robbie Waterhouse barely needs an introduction.

As well as his own career as a bookmaker he is the son of a legendary bookie, is married to one of Australia's greatest ever trainers and is the father of the CEO of one of Australia's biggest corporate bookmakers. So there's plenty to learn from someone with decades of experience in the racing industry.

Punting Insights

Why the basics of form study have remained the same throughout his career

The relative importance of various form factors such as sectionals, speed maps, weight, jockeys and trainers.

Why he doesn't watch race replays himself but does employ a consultant to do so

The best advice he can give to aspiring punters including recommended reading

Today’s Guest:

Rob Waterhouse

Dave Duffield: Hi, Rob. Thanks for joining us today. I want to have a chat about quite a few things, so we'll get stuck into it right away. In terms of doing the form, are you more from the data and analytical side or is it gut instinct and experience?

Rob Waterhouse: Look, I'm very old fashioned the way I do the form, a la Don Scott. It's the way I've always done it, and the way my father did it. So I'm very much a fundamental analyst, I suppose.

Dave Duffield: And so as new information comes along, how do you try to incorporate that into the way you do the form?

Rob Waterhouse: I'm not sure what you mean by new information. I suppose rider changes, of course you have to make the adjustments and gear changes you have to make adjustments. But I deliberately don't look at what anyone else thinks or what the markets are, virtually until I go to the races.

Dave Duffield: By new information I just mean, technological advancements. It might be speed ratings, sectional data that you can get now, anything like that.

Rob Waterhouse: I've always kept time ratings as well as class ratings, and I've always kept speed ratings. I sort of regard that as being a fairly normal thing to do, rather than the modern-day thing. For 30 years I've kept those three sets of ratings.

Dave Duffield: Quite a few people I've spoken to over the years have had to evolve the way they do the form. You haven't had to make wholesale changes in recent times?

Rob Waterhouse: If I looked back to what I was doing 30 years ago, I don't think it's changed much at all. Perhaps I think some factors are a bit less important than they used to be; other factors are a bit more important. I think I've been pretty constant in the way I've done it.

Dave Duffield: Okay. I'd like to run through a few of those factors then.

Dave Duffield: Sectionals on their own, how important are they in the form that you do?

Rob Waterhouse: I find them of little use to me. I know some people love sectional times, but if the overall race time is slow and the sectional is fast, I think it's of little use. If the sectional is fast and the overall time is fast, that's a good horse. I think the overall time is much more important than the sectional.

Dave Duffield: What about the speed maps themselves? From Gai's perspective, I know she likes them to be up on the speed. Are you the same from a punting or bookmaking perspective?

Rob Waterhouse: I think all analysts and all punters love their horses to be near the lead. The horse that leads wins 25% of races. The closer you are to the lead in a race the more chance you have of winning.

Dave Duffield: How much does that vary by track and just by race shape, say for example if there looks to be a hot speed?

Rob Waterhouse: Look, it does vary by track. At the long straight at Flemington, leaders have less chance than they do at say Moonee Valley. The point is this: you get a better price in the long straight for the leader at Flemington and a much worse price at Moonee Valley. From a punter's point of view, the advantage is always to be on the horse near the pace.

Dave Duffield: Trainers? What importance do they play when,

Jon Roberts has spent the best part of a decade fine-tuning his approach to the biggest betting market in the world - the English Premier League.

He's combined an extensive stats and trends database with a passion for the game, meticulous record-ke...

Sydney pro punter Nathan Snow is back on the show this week to review the year that was and to look forward to 2016.

Punting Insights

His thoughts on Sydney's leading trainers

Two jockeys he loves to back and two he feels are over-rated

Why he loves betting at Canterbury

A 2yo he believes is capable of doing the Magic Millions / Golden Slipper double

A 3yo he expects to run some big races at big odds

Today’s Guest:

Nathan Snow's NSW ratings.

Dave Duffield: G'day Snowy, I just wanted to get you on to have a bit of a chat about the year that we've had, and also look forward to next year. Talking about some trainers, jockeys and a few horses, but particularly some horses to follow for next year.

On the training front, obviously Chris Waller dominates. How do you approach what you do, in terms of rating a race, when he is such a dominant player in New South Wales?

Nathan Snow: He continues to take all before him. He’s come from nothing, 5, 10 years ago it was in New Zealand and here he is, the biggest trainer in Australia, just keeps getting bigger. He's now more focused on the Group 1s, and producing some real Group 1 horses, and he hasn't forgotten the run of the mill stuff either. It's easier to be with him than oppose him as a punter, because if you oppose him too often you're going to get burnt.

I think there are various scenarios you can oppose him, his training style doesn't seem to suit 2 year olds at this stage, you can oppose his 2 year olds up until about April or so with a bit of confidence. I think if you take the view that first and second up, the're not going to be fully wound up as they’re looking to build into their preparations, I think that's the best way to view him as a trainer, he's looking to get his horses racing consistently for longer periods, and if that sacrifices a run or 2 early, then so be it.

There's nothing nefarious going on, it's just not quite wound up. The riding tactics are usually to be conserved for 1 run late, and if the pace is on, and the map suits, they can still will first up. It's generally that you want to be against him at that stage.

Dave Duffield: Basically, best of the totes and SP Waller is close to a break even proposition for 2015, which is a pretty phenomenal performance just considering the amount of runners that he has each and every week.

Nathan Snow: Exactly, including the number of runners he has week in, week out, it's an amazing statistic.

Dave Duffield: Probably less on the easy to follow and positive side, we've got John O'Shea. Again, your rating individual horses, but you're also more than interested in the trainer and the jockey. How do you you assess O'Shea typically when you're rating a race?

Nathan Snow: There's 2 O'Sheas and 2 Darley as far as I'm concerned. There's Carnival Darley and then there's the rest of the time Darley, and being such a breeding empire that they are now, a lot of the stuff is focused on the Group 1s and making the good horses, they're happy to use the midweekers and their starting off point as a little education run, so that sort of thing. I think at this stage you're better off opposing our horses in mid weekers, I think they start gross unders most of the time. Rare occasions are when you want to be with them is when you think you can find a nice horse, but it could be on its way up, second up, third up, or even if 1 shows a considerable roundability, like the winner on Sunday at Kembla it was very soft in the market but that trialed well. I think it was 4 dollars out 6.50, it still won like a nice horse. They can defy the drift if the horses are nice enough, I think you just want to be with them at carnival time, because that's when the stable will be peaking.

Dave Duffield: What about Bjorn Baker, he seems to have gone from strength to strength this year.

Nathan Snow: Bjorn's a bit of a mystery many, he goes through a streak, where he just keeps winning,

This week's podcast guest has an 8 year track record of success in the sports betting world.

Matt is an English sports trader who combines his passion for cricket and NRL with the ability to find good value in the markets.

Punting Insights

His journey from novice to professional punter

Why he is focused on cricket and NRL

Why he despises bookies and now photographs every single bet

How lazy bookies create betting opportunities

Matt is launching a new sports betting package this week which allows members to make the same bets as a seasoned professional.

Today’s Guest:

Matt

Dave Duffield: Hi Matt and I wanted to introduce you to the guys and explain a bit about your background and what you've done over the last 8 years. So you might as well take us back to that time and just talk about the journey from keen to professional punter.

Matt: I guess when you're a young lad, most young lads are keen at gambling, which is what I was. Pretty good at maths, good with numbers and enjoyed a punt. Basically just took it part time, bet on basically everything in the world. Lost on most things, and found that I was quite good at cricket gambling. I had a really keen interest in cricket when I was a kid as well. Played for Lancashire up until the age of 15. I find that if you have a keen interest in something and you like punting they can go together.

I enjoyed that. Never really thought about it as a full time career. I don't think anybody does, to be honest with you. I think that everyone that does this full time falls into it accidentally. I was working for a bank as a mortgage advisor and a financial advisor and then the financial markets crashed and I basically got fired. Started working for any kind of sales jobs that I could get a hold of. Didn't really enjoy many of them, and I was punting in the background. A little bit more than the average sort of twenty quid here and there on a Saturday afternoon. I was profitable, I was making a few quid, but definitely not enough to pay the bills and go full time.

Then that built for 18 months or so and then I got an insurance payout from a car crash, some guy drove into me as you do. I just hated my job, and hated my life, and being on the phone to people all day telling them to settle their small debts and blah blah blah.

So I quit, and gave it a go full time. Started with very small stakes and started off with about 300 English pounds in Betfair and just tried to build it slow and steady. Didn't tell anyone what I was doing, so the family thought, still think, that I work for a bank which is ridiculous but it's one of those things.

8 years on, here we are.

Dave Duffield: Betting into cricket, you said you had some knowledge as a junior player, but from a betting perspective how did you find an edge in what is quite a big market, and they tend to be more efficient. So what was your edge?

Matt: Yeah, the thing was in England because you're legally allowed to bet in play, a lot of the stuff was Betfair related. I was always fascinated by Betfair. My first ever Betfair bet was a nil-nil bet on the Classico between Real Madrid and Barcelona at 1000-1. Which I thought was a very big price, until I realised I'd turned the tv on and started it had started 5 minutes ago and they had already scored. 1000-1 wasn't the best price for nil-nil and it was 1-nil to Real Madrid.

Betfair would fascinate me because their prices were so much bigger than everybody else. I always thought well, if their prices are so much bigger then obviously you get paid more if you win, so there's got to be an edge somewhere there.

Then, I guess my love of cricket and my love of betting sort of collided.

Also, I have this theory that in play, the more points are scored in a sport, the more fluctuations there are in the betting odds. In a football match, if the game could be settled 1-nil, then that price will go from one price to another price and that's it.

Byron Rogers was on the podcast in 2014 and it was refreshing to discuss his efforts in quantifying both breeding and type when identifying yearlings to purchase.

That discussion is well worth a listen, but if you want the super-simplified summary of how he tries to find Group performers:

(1) Young-ish sire and dam

(2) Fast dam

(3) Good heart, body type and DNA

(4) Raised on a suitable farm

(5) Sent to an excellent trainer

Byron is back this week to talk about all that's happened since then.

Punting Insights

Why breeding a stayer is so difficult

Why non-stayers can win the Oaks

How the trainer effect is often under-estimated

Why their success tends to be at the 'edges' of the horse population

How and why the model gets smarter every 6 months

The machine learning software he (and the NY Yankees) use

How some of this can be applied to the betting market

Today’s Guest:

Byron Rogers

Dave Duffield: I was chatting to you last week to come on the show, but you had a nice weekend.

Byron Rogers: Yeah we had the filly Indarra for Phil Sly we'd purchased as a yearling out in New Zealand at Karaka for 150 thousand and she broke her maiden in good style in a stakes race which is obviously the best way you want to do it with a Filly.

Dave Duffield: And so, we'll speak in general terms as we chat but specifically for her, what appealed when you're going through the yearling catalogue and then also doing the various tests and inspections that you do.

Byron Rogers: I think the main thing with her was, she’s by Stravinsky who obviously hasn't had a lot of good horses recently, he's been a very good sire but he hasn't in more recent times hasn't had a lot of good runners but when you physically looked at her and Phil Sly was pretty specific about wanting to get fillies that were going to run to ten furlongs.

He likes horses that can try and get a mile to ten furlongs and you know he has got a lot of luck with horses like Mosheen and those sorts of horses. So he was very specific about what he was trying to get to. When we looked at her physically she didn't look like a one dimensional horse. She was very much like her broodmare sire, like a Zabeel and you probably see that when she's at the races you know she does have that Zabeel attitude to her. But physically she's a well-balanced filly and we just thought she fit the bill and when... Obviously when we do what we do in terms of looking at the genetics, DNA markers in relation to muscle fibre type she had the right sort of balance for what we see to be a horse that would get the ten furlongs.

More importantly she also had the cardiovascular capacity. She has got a good sized cardio and so a Filly like her, for us, stood out. We did have to pay 150 thousand which was a decent price for a Stravinski filly at the time and she has worked out. I mean she was a bit unlucky, we probably thought she was going to be a Filly that would come to the races and be competitive in a VRC Oaks because what we find is that an early in their 3 year old year the genuine stayers are actually a little bit behind the horses that aren't genuine stayers in terms of…. You can win an Oaks with a filly that actually doesn't really sort of stay a mile and a half given a VRC Oaks. They can be milers that get there by the fact that they're more mature and more forward and we thought she was a filly like that but unfortunately she got an ulcer under her tongue we sort of had to back off her. It was a bit of a blessing in disguise we sort of got her going at the tail end but she's a filly that will end up getting to ten furlongs whether she gets to the mile and a half in the Autumn remains to be seen.

The other horses tend to catch up to you there so that's the new challenge, just to see how Robert Smerdon handles it.

Dave Duffield: So Indarra is one example, but just going back to the last time you were on the show,

Nick Aubrey is a former actuary who uses advanced mathematics, probability theory and market anomalies to find value as a punter.

He's been on the Betting 360 podcast previously to discuss his approach, quaddies and multi's.

On this episode we pose the standard questions of our form analysis and staking series. You will soon learn the most important factor in everything that he does.

Punting Insights

Why everything he does as a punter ultimately comes down to price

The winners will come along when they're good and ready

The 'sweet spot' price bracket to include in your exotics

Nick's analysis showing a 7/1 chance is just as likely to run 3rd as the 9/4 favourite

Today’s Guest:

Nick Aubrey

Dave Duffield: Good to have you on Nick. We're trying to get a cross-section of people for this series and you fit the bill as someone who doesn't do things the same way as a lot of other people.

Nick Aubrey: Yep, everybody's different I guess.

Dave Duffield: Of course. We'll get stuck into it and you can explain those differences.

In terms of form, are you someone that likes to sit down and do the form, per se? Or is it more about data?

Nick Aubrey: Well I must admit data tends to solidify ... I guess I got into racing because of my gut feel aspect so I thought, oh this is easy. I can work what the odds and form should be but data is a very clinical way of representing horses' performance. It's a bit less biased than perhaps the gut feel. For instance on Saturday, that freak run - maybe it is a freak, maybe it's not - of Winx to win the Cox Plate. That was fantastic and that'll never leave my mind, but what is probably not considered when you think of that was there track bias on the day? What a freak run that Hughie Bowman got to go up on the inside, because ... Was that a high-risk ride or low-risk? There's a lot of factors that only the facts and figures later on will tell.

Dave Duffield: Do you specialise in certain races or do you cover many?

Nick Aubrey: Many, because I get a data feed so therefore I can do as many as I like. The idea is to bet on as many races as possible to try and spread the risk and really betting is not so much about backing winners but getting the right price about them. The winners will come when they're good and ready. I try to do as many races and bet into as many races as possible.

Dave Duffield: I've heard you say that a few times, you might just want to touch on that briefly; "The winners will come when they're good and ready." That's always been your approach.

Nick Aubrey: Yes. I mean, at the end of the day depending upon your circumstances if you're a punter or a bookmaker but it's a zero sum game and bookmakers tend to charge a margin and to win on the punt you've got to overcome that margin.

Like for instance the Cox Plate. The margins there, you're not going to get 20/1 about Winx because the market's got it pretty right. Therefore, you've got to get the best price about Winx. People that took 6/1 about Winx the day before or whatever, they were laughing. People who just put on the TAB and took the $4.20 well, okay they got the winner but would that price if they got it all the time be sufficient to make a profit in the long term?

It is, sadly, all about the price you get. Of course, you need the winners as well but the winners will come when they're good and ready because nobody can predict what the next one is around the bend.

Dave Duffield: What about speed maps? How do they influence the way you price a race or the way you want to bet?

Nick Aubrey: Yes, well that is something that I've only ... Well I've always been interested in it but I've been, circumstances are I've been looking at that in a lot more detail of late. It's amazing that even in races where you don't think speed is that important, like more the staying races, backing an on-pace runner in terms of typically their value and their ability to win,

Our 'For and Against' series continues this week as we learn how our Kiwi analyst has found such an edge on the market.

FORM

Data vs gut.

Every race vs just a few.

Backmarkers vs on speed

Trainers and jockeys.

Barriers.

Weight.

Trials and first uppers.

Wet tracks.

Big vs small markets

Specialise vs diversified.

STAKING

Level staking vs proportionate.

Staking/confidence levels influencing bet size.

Market intelligence.

Early vs late betting.

Pre-post betting.

Faves vs long shots.

Each way vs straight out.

Exotics.

Static vs dynamic banks.

Profit on Turnover versus Profit only.

Today’s Guest:

Kiwi Chris

Dave Duffield: G’day, Chris. Thanks for joining us again. I wanted to get you on the podcast again to continue the for-and-against series that we've had. Just a run through how you do the form and how you start you stake your bets and basically to help people understand that there's many different ways of going about it.

Let's start off with data versus gut. Do you particularly use one or the other, or is it really a combination of both?

Chris: Probably a combination of both. I have the data here and then it's just getting across the field. Yeah, so a bit of both.

Dave Duffield: How do you incorporate gut instinct? You trust the data and you do your own sectional timing, so you want to be able to rely on that, but at the same time you don’t want to not be a slave to that data, so how do you balance that?

Chris: I guess I look at the race data first, and then I'll have a look at what type of race it is, the jockeys and trainers involved, and what sort of horses will more than likely be peaking for this race or improving from their last performance and sort of take it from there.

Dave Duffield: Some people we chat to, they're more on the data side and betting into almost every race. Then you’ve got quite a few others that specialise. Where do you sit?

Chris: I sort of pick and choose. I’m pretty choosy, as you've probably seen by the results. We don't bet in to many races.

Dave Duffield: How heavily do you penalise back markers?

Chris: Because a lot of the races I'm betting into are maiden races or races where there's horses who are only lightly raced, quite often a horse's pattern is not sort of set in stone yet. I don't really bother with speed maps for those type of races. For more tried horses I'll look at where they're probably going to settle but I think just about everyone these days has an idea of a speed map, so I don't get too carried away with them.

Dave Duffield: You're aware of them and you want to get an understanding of where the horse is going to settle, but it's not a big determinant in whether you want to bet into the race or how you price that horse?

Chris: It'll have some bearing. It will obviously all depend on the particular race we're looking at.

Dave Duffield: In the lower class of race, such as a maiden, is it any harder to make ground . Does it tend to favour the on speed types?

Chris: I couldn't say for sure. Generally, I'm looking for the best horse or the horse that's likely to improve the most and go with them.

Dave Duffield: Trainers and jockeys. What role do they play when you're doing the form?

Chris: They play a decent role, yeah. Obviously, some trainers in New Zealand really dominate the racing here, and they're quite well known. There's a few top-end jockeys as well, who, when you get the combination of both, it's normally a good sign.

Dave Duffield: For trainers and jockeys, are you looking at replays, the form that they're in there, or is it based on their stats, whether it's winning percentage or profitability?

Chris: I guess recent race form. I mean, in New Zealand, there's a group who are the top jockeys and the top trainers. They're reasonably well-known and I don't really look into the data so much. I'll check the tables but it's pretty standard, who the best are.

Luke Murrell from Australian Bloodstock is a regular Spring guest and he's back by popular demand in 2015.

As people have come to expect he is particularly honest and opinionated.

Punting Insights

A number of the imports and locals where he believes the price is plain wrong

Why he has some doubts about the Criterion form

One runner he believes is a very good Melbourne Cup bet

His (admittedly slightly biased) thoughts on Protectionist

Today’s Guest:

Luke Murrell

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Deane Lester is one of the very few media personalities whose opinions are widely respected by serious punters.

He has a big following from his work with RSN and Sky Channel and is widely respected as one of the best form analysts in the country.

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