The Betting 360 podcast is back in action and our special guest this week is Stephen from our AFL betting model.

We're 14 rounds into the season so it's a good time to discuss what has happened so far and of course what we have to look forward to over the next 3 months.

Punting Insights:

Why they believe the market is wrong on West Coast, Fremantle and Sydney

How West Coast's efficiency has helped them become this season's surprise packet

Why player ratings have been incorporated into the AFL model

How closing line value is used to measure the likelihood of long-term success

Some key things to consider when betting on the total points scored market

Today’s Guest:

Stephen from our AFL tips package.

Dave: How have you found the AFL season so far?

Stephen: It's been a season of ups and downs I guess in terms of looking at performance for the year in terms of betting results. It's definitely been an exciting one in which we've really seen a few teams coming to the fore that I guess we didn't expect at the start of the year, namely West Coast in particular, and obviously Hawthorn, the juggernauts of the competition who have performed strongly in recent weeks. They've dropped a few games, that not many people thought they would have earlier in the year, but the promising thing, I guess, is that we're confident going forward over this last third of the season of finals that we should be able to manage to find a bit of value is things have a lot of changes; injuries coming in and out and the stats kind of starting to get a bit more settled in our database. So looking forward to a good finish to the rest of the year at the very least.

Dave: So you mentioned West Coast as being one of the surprising teams. It's probably three or four weeks ago now, you sent out an alert to members to get on them for the flag at around $11. Since then there's quite a few more people that have jumped on the bandwagon, but what stood out at that stage is the West Coast being a genuine premiership threat.

Stephen: Yeah because we kind of try to get in the habit of running our future simulations every week but I think we let it go for a few weeks and we re-ran it and we had West Coast as sitting ranked second behind Hawthorn and couldn't believe our eyes when we saw the price they were offering on some of the bookmakers. So just looking at their stats and what they've done this year completely blew away our expectations at the start of the year but it just ... One thing we've around some of the measures that we create in terms to determine the strength and the form of the team is we use a couple of efficiency measures and by far and away West Coast are ranked the most efficient team on offence this year even higher than Hawthorn, which is a surprise, I guess, to most people.

So the measures that we use are inside 50s per goal and disposals per goal, so these measure how the team uses the ball around the field and the quality of their inside 50 entries. West Coast look dangerous enough up forward with Josh Kennedy leading the Coleman race and then they've got back Jack Darling and it makes them look even more unstoppable.

It's exciting stuff, and as you said, we tipped them I think in round 13, so a couple of weeks ago now, at $11.00 and now they've come in to $6.50, so obviously the market's responded a bit to their good form and also it moves a little bit after some followers got on, some money came for them, but they're still rated as only number 4 in the market behind Sydney and Fremantle, so the public still isn’t 100% sold on them being a real top contender this year.

Dave: So going by game and also for totals you have your assessed price, your rated price and then you look into your overlays. In the futures, the premiership markets, so the do you actually have a probability, an assessed price for them at the moment, like how much of an overlay that is at 6.50?

Stephen: Yeah,

Tony 'The Badger' Hargraves makes his living as a horse racing and sports trader on Betfair. He's on the podcast to give you some pointers on how to read the market so that you can get the best available odds more often than not.

Punting Insights:

The best market indicators to help you decide when to place your bets

How he helped a professional punter manipulate the market

Why anyone using the standard Betfair interface is at a big disadvantage

The reasons why the Betfair market is a far better guide than a bookmaker

Today’s Guest:

Tony Hargraves

Betfair App directory

Bettrader Evolution from Racing Traders

Bet Angel from Gruss Software

Get the Transcript:

Dave Duffield: Welcome back to the show, Tony. It's been a couple years now since we had you on.

Tony Hargraves: Yeah, thanks Dave. Good to be back. Still over in the UK doing my thing over here on the sports and racing.

Dave Duffield: One of the reasons I wanted to get you on today was basically we always get the common question is when they should be taking odds and it's not an easy task to have that experience in how to read the markets, so I wanted to cover that with you today. The Betfair market's very closely monitored by both bookies and punters locally. We wanted to get some indications from you on how to read that market and help guys out on when to bet.

Tony Hargraves: Sure. I think that the best way I can help your listeners out is just to explain pretty clearly what it is that I do. I look at Betfair, I look at the bookmakers and I use trading software, which I find is the key component which is the difference. Some of your people might not have heard of trading software, but it's all available and connected to the API. There's several options that you've got out there, but what they do that Betfair doesn't do is you have a ladder view. What you can do is rather than just look at your normal Betfair webpage where you've got three prices either side and you don't really get any information on the page, with trading software you can convert that to a ladder view so you can pretty well see every price from $1 to $1,000.

Say you've got a horse that's trading at $3, what you can do when you look at the ladder view is it clearly shows you where the top and bottom of that horse has traded since the market opened. Say I'm looking at a horse, the top of the range might be $3.70, and the bottom of the range might be at $3.00. I can go and look at that and I can see straight away the horse is trading at $3.10 so I know instantly well that's the lowest that it's been all day, so it's at the bottom of the market. I probably don't want to back that horse at the moment because I'm getting the worst value, it's the lowest price it's been all day.

Now one of two things is going to happen. That horse will either continue to come down in price, which in that case it means people are backing it, but you're still probably better off not betting at that point because you're taking the worst value. As you know, I'm sure you've told your members, betting is all about getting the value. I would find that I'd watch that and if the price rose up to $3.60 or $3.70 I would then back the horse at that price because it's at the top of where it's traded all day. It's unlikely to go any higher and I'm assured of getting the best value.

Dave Duffield: For the Australian market, it's obviously a lot less liquid than the UK, does that make it more difficult to read or can the volatility work in your favour?

Tony Hargraves: The volatility is a lot greater than the UK markets and it can work for you as much as it can work against you. Obviously if you get on at the right time and the volatility goes with you, you'll make good money; but if it goes against you it's bad.

That's also where this software helps me greatly. I can clearly see that horse that's trading $3.70 and a bottom range of $3.00,

Ben Krahe has been a very successful bookmaker and punter for a number of years now, so the big question is how can a solo operator consistently beat the market?

And over the course of many years how much do you have to adapt your approach? Or shoul...

Back on the podcast this week is Dan Weston for a betting preview of the 2015 French Open.

Dan is the founder of Tennis Ratings, a UK-based website with a stack of good information for tennis fans and especially those trading in-play. He is also an ...

The popularity of multi's has exploded in recent years and the bookies are focusing a lot of their advertising on pushing punters towards this bet type.

A key reason for that is the bookies advantage is so strong on multi's and to explain why we hav...

Michael Pryde is a full-time professional sports punter operating a data-driven model that finds value in the massive market that is US sports.

He joins us on the podcast this week to discuss how it all works for the Sports Predictor Model.

Punting Insights:

How a quant model can beat the market

Why baseball is such a good sport to bet on

Key team and player stats

The two best betting options

Today’s Guest:

Michael Pryde

Get the Transcript:

David Duffield: Good to chat again Michael. Just for the people that may have missed it last year can you run through the summary of how you go about it with the Sports Predictor Model.

Michael Pryde: Basically the Sports Predictor Model is a statistic driven analysis of each sport. Basically we just crunch the numbers into an algorithm and that spits out whether some bets are good bets. Or whether some bets have value or not, compared to the Vegas bookmakers. We've developed the system over 3 ½ - 4 years now which has proven to be quite profitable. It's going well.

David Duffield: So you do this full time and also with the help of some of your brothers?

Michael Pryde: Yes so I do it myself, and Matt. We do it full time now. I started full time about 2 ½ years ago. And he started full time about 12 months ago. So yeah, we're both full time.

David Duffield: Who's the boss?

Michael Pryde: Of course, me. I'm the one who's talking, so me.

David Duffield: So I wanted to get you on this time of year to talk baseball because pretty much anyone who's had a bet by now has probably heard of Moneyball and that whole approach that revolutionised things almost a decade ago now, I'd say. Things have really evolved since then but from what you do, why is baseball such a good sport to bet on?

Michael Pryde: I mean the baseball is quintessentially what our system is about. It's such a high volume of fixtures every year. And pretty much any stat is easily available. I mean, this year there's over 2400 fixtures. If you can imagine that's like 12 or 13 AFL seasons in six months. It's such a high volume of games and within those fixtures there's 3 markets we can bet on. Head to head, line and totals.

We've found over the last 2 seasons that on average we probably have a significant enough value to bet 1 in 10 markets and that's proved to be really profitable. That's also why baseball is so good, because of the profit.

The last 2 seasons we've had remarkably similar results. In 2013 we had 106 units profit at a strike-rate of 56% and last year we made 107 and a half units profit at a strike-rate just short of 55%. We've had about 1400 bets over those 2 years.

But in terms of developing statistical trends and an algorithm that's successfully sustained profitability in sports gambling, baseball is the ideal platform really. And the ideal sport.

David Duffield: So you mentioned the high volume of fixtures and the availability of stats. That's some of the positives, then one of the challenges can be in such a big market it tends to be more efficient. How have you gone about finding profitable angles and putting that together into the algorithm to find value bets?

Michael Pryde: Well, I almost look at it the other way and think there are so many markets and so many markets everyday that there's bound to be, not flawed markets because there's never a flawed market, but markets where you can get value in. I mean we only find about 1 in 10 markets but that's enough for us to have a bet.

They're putting out up to 45 markets a day, everyday for 6 months. Not every market is going to be as tight as it potentially could be. We believe anyway.

David Duffield: Are you looking mainly at team stats or is it player stats because I know that with baseball, one of the benefits is, as you mentioned before, the availability of stats but also the fact that although it's a team game but it's really a 1 on 1 battle, pitcher and batter.

Michael Pryde: Yeah,

Dean the Trial Spy employs a revolutionary approach to form assessment by focusing on barrier trials identify great priced winners and generate excellent long term profits.

He started the Trial Spy service with us in February 2013 and the consistent, long term success has been incredible, with over 460 units profit in just over 2 years. So we’re going to have a chat with Dean today about a variety of topics.

Punting Insights:

Why there is still a big edge betting on barrier trials

Some of the common mistakes most trial watchers make

What changes he's made over the last 2 years

How exotics are incorporated into the service

Today’s Guest:

Dean Trial Spy

Get the Transcript:

David Duffield: I want to talk about the Trial Spy service. It's one of the better known services we've got that's for sure and definitely one of the most successful ones. What is your process in reviewing the trials?

Dean: I go through the trials in an intense level of detail that I would say few, if any, do. I do the form for a trial like I do for a race and do the form across all of the trials on a day, and set a picture of where I expect horses to finish within each trial, but also looking across say a set of 10 900m trials at Rosehill.

Also looking to see which trials I'm expecting to run quicker times as opposed to others, and identifying the class and speed ability and characteristics of each runner so that I know what I expect. Then it's a case of often looking for what surprised me or wasn't expected, the sneaky trial that others missed. Watching each trial over and over again multiple times to view each runner individually. Knowing the form of each runner and utilising sectional data that isn't publicly available verifying across two independent sources. That enables me to do it at a level that others simply don't bother with. You get to know the horses and their ability level, their improvement levels from preparation to preparation, and their idiosyncrasies really well. It's then a case of taking into consideration the nuances of various trainers.

The trainers whose horses and good triallers are generally over-bet, versus those who are under-bet. The existing class of the horse, the times they ran, how much they were or weren't exerted, and where they're likely to head in their preparation. I then determine whether they fit the criteria of the horse that we want to follow for their preparation, which is essentially a horse whose speed or class isn't truly reflected in their existing form.

David Duffield: Most edges gradually disappear over time but that hasn't appeared to be the case with the Trial Spy. Why do you think there is still such a big edge doing barrier trials?

Dean: I think for a long time the performances in barrier trials were enormously undervalued. Very few people were watching them, and the ones that were probably weren't aware of the value of what they were seeing.

These days, most of the largest pundits in Australia are data-driven. That creates a great opportunity. Speaking with these guys directly or listening to them speak, they all admit that they simply can't find an acceptable way to incorporate trials into their figures. The horses aren't running for prize money. They aren't all trying. The jockeys are carrying different weights. They simply can't find a way in their data or rigid computer-driven calculations with little to no human intervention to incorporate trial performances into their numbers. They either don't incorporate it at all, or some databases or computer ratings try and incorporate it based on the times run without any additional input, which is clearly flawed, or they watch a trial once and try to fudge some sort of manual overlay in there, but probably they're not putting the relevant time and effort into it.

They're simply getting it wrong, either under-cooking or over-cooking the manual adjustment they should be placing in there.

Australian Bloodstock's Luke Murrell has been a regular podcast guest, most recently when he was celebrating the scintillating win of Protectionist in the Melbourne Cup.

A lot has happened since then so Luke is back to chat about Protectionist's disappointing autumn campaign and plans for the future, how the overseas horses went overall and what's next for finding imports.

Punting Insights:

Where to now for the dominant 2014 Melbourne Cup winner?

Why Hartnell and Contributer weren't nearly as impressive as most people thought

A simple but effective way to find horses looking for more ground

Why this year's 2yo crop is suspect

Luke's thoughts on the best horse in Australia and an up-and-comer for the Cox Plate

Today’s Guest:

Luke Murrell

Get the Transcript:

David Duffield: Thanks for joining us again Luke. Now you're probably a little bit flat because Protectionist never really hit his straps this time in, but what's your take on his four autumn runs?

Luke Murrell: Yeah he's always going to have a lot of pressure on him, that horse. To be brutally honest, I was absolutely gutted after Saturday. But on the flip side, on my ratings and how I measure horses and if I was buying horses, I've got him in the Australian Cup probably 2 lengths off his career best.

I thought his first up run was more than acceptable, so I was really happy with those 2. BMW run, really happy with, again. Something about this horse is he won't go around corners, hence those bigger Randwick and Flemington tracks are certainly his go.

He probably lost a little bit of momentum in the BMW and if he hadn't drawn 12, any other barrier would probably have 2 pairs closer, and he runs a place, and everyone says, "It's the flashing light".

I was really happy with the runs, up until that point. Then, the highs of the Melbourne Cup versus that on Saturday is a long way apart for me, and unfortunately, he's come out of the race ... He's injured himself during the race, which explains his performance.

Overall, I was happy enough with the horse. He's earned a hundred grand for the prep, and the horse showed to us that he was racing at his absolute ... Well, close to his peak. That's all positive going forward. The big thing for us is coming out of today. He goes and gets some dye through his system and it highlights any hot spots, or where he's actually hurt himself.

That's an unknown, whether it's a minor or serious, but we're not thinking it's career threatening, so that's positive, but yeah, it was very different emotions, I can tell you that.

David Duffield: So early in the prep, he had a fair bit of market support and was seen by some to be disappointing, but you're saying you were happy with those runs right up until Saturday?

Luke Murrell: Yeah, absolutely. I think what you've got to appreciate is that if you go yourself for a run out on the road, and we ask you to sprint from the moment you leave your door and sustain that for such a long period of time, there's very few athletes in the world that can do that.

A lot of people have got to remember that the 1800m and the Australia Cup were never his main aims, but if we have a look at the tempo of those races were run, they were run at suicide type speeds.

For a horse that hadn't raced for a while, to ask him ... And you've got to watch him in the run. The horse is, at his top speed, sort of 100m, 200m, once they've left the gates, so I think they were really credible to finish as close as he did, we were really thrilled with.

I could not believe the market support for the first ... Well, probably all runs this prep. Especially the first 2 or 3. It certainly wasn't sort of stable inspired. Look, the horse was going really well, but you only had to watch him pull up and come back to the yard.

He needed the runs, and we fully expected that. We didn't want to overtax him. He's got a big 12 months coming up. It was never a target,

Expert golf bettor and former touring pro Peter Fenton joins us on the podcast this week to preview the 2015 US Masters.

Peter combines his own golfing knowledge with stats analysis to come up with solid value selections and he is keen on the chances of Jason Day and Jimmy Walker this week.

Punting Insights:

The importance of course experience at Augusta

What to look for in terms of Driving, Iron Play and Putting

Why Jason Day and Jimmy Walker have the right profile to go well this week

Today’s Guest:

Peter Fenton Swingform

Get the Transcript:

Transcript not available.

Course Experience:

When attempting to pick the winner at The Masters, previous experience at Augusta should be the first consideration. In the last 14 years only eight players have managed to place (Top 5) on their Augusta debut, with none of these ending up as the winner.

Driving, Iron Play & Putting:

Generous fairways but ever increasing yardage at Augusta means length takes preference over accuracy from the tee. The last seven winners here, and 10 of the last 11, were all averaging 300yd plus from the tee at the time of winning.

The benefit of long drives means shorter irons into the greens, which are under average size at Augusta. The need to leave uphill putts, on the severely undulating surfaces, makes the ideal target smaller still and increases the need for pinpoint approach play. In the weeks leading up to the Masters the sharpest iron players are usually exposed near the top of the leaderboards at Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open 05/02/15), and Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro Am 12/02/15) both venues with very small greens.

A strong capability to control pace and line whilst putting on a fast, heavily undulating surface is another essential for competing at Augusta. Player’s who showed form at Waialae (Sony Open 15/01/15) and carry that through Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach (again), as well as Copperhead at Innisbrook (Valspar Championship 12/03/15) all severely undulating greens, will prove to have built the demon touch required for winning The Masters.

Two tips:

From the above information, the two names that keep cropping up are Jimmy Walker and Jason Day. Both are long enough from the tee averaging over 300yds each. Both have previous Augusta experience, Day with a 2nd and 3rd under his belt and Walker finishing 8th here last year on his debut. Significantly the pair also have wins this year from our key courses, Day at Torrey Pines, as well as a 4th at Pebble Beach and 17th at Waialae. Whilst Walker was triumphant at Waialae, as well as finishing 7th at Torrey Pines.

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This week on the podcast we're joined by an AFL betting expert who has developed a betting model good enough to consistently beat the bookies.

Dan's love of Aussie Rules football, experience as an actuary and also working with a large corporate book...