The special votes have confirmed a "worst case scenario" mélange à trois comprising National, Act and NZ First. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas assess the state of coalition talks. What are the, as Christopher Luxon's puts it, "big rocks", "additive things" and "things we've got variance in"? Plus: Te Pāti Māori triples its caucus, Chris Hipkins faces a leadership vote, and our predictions on when the new government will be announced.

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