The special votes have confirmed a "worst case scenario" mélange à trois comprising National, Act and NZ First. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas assess the state of coalition talks. What are the, as Christopher Luxon's puts it, "big rocks", "additive things" and "things we've got variance in"? Plus: Te Pāti Māori triples its caucus, Chris Hipkins faces a leadership vote, and our predictions on when the new government will be announced.
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Big rock energy and coalition talks

A New Zealand politics podcast hosted by The Spinoff's Toby Manhire with Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas.

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Six months in, and it's hardly been a honeymoon. A new poll would put National out of power and sees its leader, Chris Luxon, sliding in popularity. How much is it about policy, how much coalition management, and a how much just the persistent grey economic clouds. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas gather to stick their fingers in the wind.
Also on the agenda: the two Winstons entwine as the foreign minister takes aim at former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr, who responds with a threat to sue. Did Melissa Lee and Penny Simmonds deserve to be demoted? Plus, what the Waitangi Tribunal said about the decision to scrap Oranga Tamariki's section 7AA, and what the High Court said about children's minister Karen Chhour's refusal to turn up to talk about it.
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Luxon's mojo machine misfires

Winston Peters and Helen Clark are at loggerheads over New Zealand inching towards "pillar two" status in a pact geared against China. Is cross-party unity on our foreign policy status splintering, and what does "pillar two" really mean? Plus: public sector cuts are suddenly becoming very real. What are the implications for the public services and what is the political risk? How is Melissa Lee navigating the media inferno in a coalition cabinet? And a stirring defence of the history curriculum.
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Aukus ruckus: the scrap over NZ independence in foreign policy

In this special edition of GBL, the former finance minister and soon-to-be vice-chancellor at the University of Otago chats with Toby Manhire from the nosebleeds at the Basin Reserve. On the agenda: tax reforms lost, the Covid legacy, the lure of Dunedin, and which White Fern Robertson most identifies with.
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A conversation with Grant Robertson at the cricket

Despite a deteriorating economic outlook and inconvenient calculations, Nicola Willis and Chris Luxon insist that they can deliver promised tax cuts without new taxes or higher borrowing. Or that’s the intention, at least. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas chew over the fiscal predicament.
Plus: is the new fast-track consenting law, which concentrates immense power in the hands of Chris Bishop, Simeon Brown and Shane Jones, a necessary circuit breaker or a lurch towards Muldoonism? What to make of Winston Peters’ ramblings about Nazism, DNA and co-governance? And while Chumbawamba have urged New Zealand's veteran tub-thumper to cease and desist, is a better template for his contribution one of the Gallagher brothers?
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Numbercrunchawamba

Christopher Luxon can’t catch a break. His prime ministerial house is shabby. His prime ministerial plane is borked. But, ask Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas, how foreseeable was the blowback to his decision to take the $52k accommodation allowance to stay in his own mortgage-free Wellington apartment, how tin-eared was it to declare, repeatedly, that he was entitled to his entitlements, thank you very much, and the swift talkback-driven U-turn?
It came hot on the heels of a whiplash week in parliament, with legislation to bin the Māori Health Authority, roll back smokefree legislation and unban pseudoephedrine. Is the government stretching the use of urgency to its legitimate limit?
Elsewhere in a new edition of the Spinoff politics podcast Gone By Lunchtime: Warner Brothers Discovery has issued a death warrant for Newshub, all of Three’s news operations and a bunch of other local content. What does it mean for democracy, and how was the response from Melissa Lee and the rest? Plus: A word on Grant Robertson, who is leaving politics.
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Big rock energy and coalition talks

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