Bitcoin desire sentiment has fallen to an eight-year low, a contrarian signal that historically aligns with market bottoms rather than tops.

Michael Sullivan, an engineer and author, applies machine learning to individual X accounts to track granular Bitcoin emotions and moods over time.

He examines how entry eras shape lasting narratives, why pro-BIP 110 cohorts show strikingly low conviction, how individual tracking avoids bot pollution, and why boredom plus infighting often mark optimal accumulation zones.

Timestamps:

01:44 — Conviction Isn't Bullish or Bearish

07:05 — Why Individual X Tracking Beats Bots

09:53 — Desire Peaks Flag Bull Market Tops

11:49 — Bitcoin Desire Hits 8-Year Low

16:27 — New Bitcoiners Angriest Right Now

21:00 — Bitcoin Entry Era Shapes Your Views Forever?

22:48 — BIP 110 Backers Show Strikingly Low Conviction

25:33 — Pro-BIP 110 Group Lives in Its Own Bubble

28:39 — BIP110 Brigading Creates Fake Consensus

31:57 — OGs Optimistic, Plebs Stay Angry

37:13 — X Algo Shift Sparks Bitcoin Optimism

39:57 — Why Sentiment Metrics Fail for Trading

41:55 — Boredom and Infighting Signal Bitcoin Bottom

Links: 

• Michael's X: https://x.com/SullyMichaelvan

• Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly on Substack: https://sentimentsully.substack.com

• Michael’s novel, Blood of the Bourgeoisie: https://www.amazon.com/Blood-Bourgeoisie-Michael-R-Sullivan-ebook/dp/B0FRZTM49Y

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack