Swan Signal Live – Episode Recap (May 17, 2025)
Title: “All-Time High Week: Bitcoin Blasts to $111K, LBE Stocks Surge, and the Debt Train Rolls On”
Guests: Brady Swenson, Alex Stanczyk, Steven Lubka, John Haar (Swan Private)

After a five-month wait since January, Bitcoin breaks through to a new all-time high of $111K.

Optimism surges among the Swan Private team as they reflect on the market momentum and macro backdrop.

Traditional markets remain volatile amid tariffs and economic uncertainty, but Bitcoin shines.

Meta Planet stock surges over 100% in a day, only to drop ~50% the next.

Discussion focuses on the new trend of Leveraged Bitcoin Equity (LBE) stocks:

High volatility

Small float

Potential for massive upside—but also high risk

Advice: Stick with Bitcoin as your core holding; allocate cautiously to LBE stocks if desired, and buy-and-hold long term is still the best strategy.

Update on BTC in DC—Swan is working with George Washington Institute to host a unique policy-focused Bitcoin conference in D.C.

Emphasis on realpolitik: “You can hate politics, but policy will impact Bitcoin adoption.”

Bitcoin values (sovereignty, decentralization) must be reconciled with pragmatic policymaking to enable mass adoption.

UTXO Management + Bitwise estimate $425 billion in institutional Bitcoin inflows by end of 2026.

Segments include public companies, wealth management platforms, sovereign wealth funds, and U.S. states.

Public companies like MicroStrategy and Meta Planet leading the charge; next phase could include giants like SoftBank, Strive, and Tether.

Moody’s downgrades U.S. debt as deficits grow.

Discussion of the “Nothing Stops This Train” meme popularized by Lynn Alden and Luke Gromen.

Takeaway: No administration can or will stop the debt spiral.

Both parties share blame.

Spending is up across the board.

Austerity is politically impossible.

Elon's recent capitulation tweet: “Radical productivity is the only way out.”

Global M2 money supply continues to rise—historically predictive of Bitcoin price surges.

Bitcoin lagged slightly behind M2 but now appears to be tracking it upward again.

Macro picture: Expansionary policy = bullish for Bitcoin.

Texas passes SB 21, establishing the first major U.S. state Bitcoin reserve.

Allows the Texas comptroller to buy and manage Bitcoin—a milestone in public Bitcoin adoption.

Only assets with $500B+ market cap qualify—i.e., Bitcoin only.

Celebrating Laszlo Hanyecz’s historic 10,000 BTC pizza purchase—the first real-world BTC transaction.

Debate sparked by Saylor’s tweet that MicroStrategy used USD to buy their Pizza Day pies.

Hosts argue in favor of spending and replacing Bitcoin:

Drives real-world adoption

Signals demand

Reinforces Bitcoin’s use case as money

Bitcoin ETFs crushing gold ETFs in inflows year-over-year.

Despite institutional barriers and late adoption, Bitcoin has seen ~$40B+ inflows vs gold’s ~$1B in year one.

Huge signal of growing demand and conviction.

Jamie Dimon reverses course: JP Morgan will now allow clients to buy Bitcoin.

After years of criticizing BTC, Dimon’s reversal is yet another mainstream surrender to Bitcoin’s inevitability.

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“Colonizing Mars is easier than stopping the debt train. Buy Bitcoin.”

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