Bloomberg Businessweek

The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.

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President Donald Trump ramped up pressure on Iran as Vice President JD Vance traveled to Pakistan for talks to end the war, with Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz’s effective closure looming over diplomatic efforts.

Trump posted on social media Friday that Tehran’s only leverage is “short term extortion of the world by using International Waterways” — a reference to Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for oil and natural gas that remains largely shut, raising global energy prices. Trump declared that the “Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards.”

While the two-week ceasefire was broadly holding across the Middle East, the situation with the strait and continued fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon threatened to complicate negotiations due to begin over the weekend in Islamabad.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf insisted in a social media post that a ceasefire in Lebanon is one measure that “must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.” The other is the “release of Iran’s blocked assets,” he added, without being more specific.

This episode features:

• Jeff Mason, Bloomberg News Washington and White House Correspondent
• Humayun Tai, McKinsey Global Energy & Materials Practice Senior Partner & Leader
• Todd Gillespie, Bloomberg News Banking Reporter on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell convening an urgent meeting with Wall Street leaders on the latest AI model from Anthropic
• Drive to the Close with Jed Ellerbroek, Argent Capital Management Portfolio Manager

Hosted by Tim Stenovec and Emily Graffeo, in for Carol Massar

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Of all the prevailing media narratives around Gavin Newsom, the one that is most conspicuous by its absence is how under its two-term governor California became the top performing economy not just among its 49 siblings but also any developed nation. No wonder Elon Musk quietly sought Newsom’s help when the world’s richest man sought to move a bunch of Tesla Inc. engineers back to the state after relocating them to Texas. Amid the thousands of headlines referencing California failings with wildfires, droughts, floods, mass transportation, aging roads, education, homelessness, unaffordable housing, widening inequality and poverty along with the exodus of billionaires, corporate headquarters and longtime residents -- never mind the “slick” label whenever the betting favorite for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is mentioned in the press – the Golden State (population 39 million people), just supplanted Japan (123 million) as the fourth-largest economy.

Matthew Winkler, Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief Emirtus discusses how California's economy has grown faster than either China or Germany... And picking up steam.

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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Intel Corp., trying to promote the use of its technology in data centers, said Alphabet Inc.’s Google has committed to using future generations of its Xeon processors and other chips.

As part of the multiyear agreement, announced Thursday, the search engine giant will customize Intel’s IPUs, or infrastructure processing units. These chips handle functions such as networking, security and storage. The companies didn’t disclose financial details or purchase commitments.
The deal is part of a push by Intel to better capitalize on the build-out of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Getting a bigger slice of data center spending is critical to a comeback bid under Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan.Intel’s stock rose as much as 3.6% in New York trading, adding to a rally of about 20% this week. The shares have also benefited from an announcement that the chipmaker will help Elon Musk’s long-shot effort to develop semiconductors for Tesla Inc., SpaceX and xAI.

Xeon once commanded a market share of more than 99%, making it the chief source of profit for what was then the world’s largest semiconductor maker. In the last few years, Intel has lost ground to rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and in-house efforts by customers — including Google.

One trend is working in Intel’s favor: Central processing units, its hallmark product, are increasingly seen as critical to artificial intelligence computing. Though Nvidia Corp.’s AI processors are still the workhorses of this infrastructure, there’s growing demand for general-purpose CPUs to help everything run smoothly.

Today's show features:

• Ian King, Bloomberg News US Semiconductor Reporter
• Ed Fishman, Columbia University Senior Research Scholar and Professor
• Jeff Mason, Bloomberg News Washington and White House Correspondent
• Michael McKee, Bloomberg TV and Radio International Economics & Policy Correspondent
• Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist

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Following Bloomberg Intelligence's list of 50 Companies to Watch in January, Tim Craighead, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior European Strategist and Director of Research-Content discusses 10 names you should know—for better or worse—in the second quarter. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have identified the most interesting names from their group of high-confidence Focus Ideas. Spanning sectors and regions, each scenario outlines a catalyst in the next few months that supports our case.

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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

A growing number of Federal Reserve officials worried the Iran war could further stoke inflation and wanted to make clear following their March meeting that the central bank may have to consider raising interest rates.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 17-18 meeting, released Wednesday in Washington, showed policymakers wrestled with starkly differing scenarios for the US economy following the outbreak of the Iran war, and the policy reactions that might follow.
Most officials worried a protracted war could hurt the labor market and warrant lower interest rates. At the same time, many policymakers highlighted the risk to inflation that might ultimately warrant rate increases.

Officials in the latter camp appeared to become more strident, urging their colleagues to consider adding language to their post-meeting statement that raised the scenario of hiking rates under certain conditions.

“Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the committee’s future interest-rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels,” the minutes said.
Echoing those concerns, the minutes noted the “vast majority” of officials thought it may take longer to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% goal.

At the meeting, officials held the Fed’s benchmark policy rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at that gathering.

Today's show features:

• Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, breaks Fed Minutes
• Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist and Head of US Economic Research
• Dr. Ed Husain, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
• Michelle Gass, Levi's President & CEO on Levi Boosts Outlook as Direct-to-Consumer Strategy Pays Off

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DraftKings and FanDuel are thriving—but lax regulations, understaffed “responsible gambling” departments, and lack of resources for gambling addicts can make sports betting platforms uniquely insidious. For many users, this new 'vice' has cost them thousands, sometimes millions, while other profit. Danny Funt, Sports Journalist and author of 'Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling' discusses the unsettling truth about America's sports betting boom and how it can cost people everything they have.

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The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that’s expected to halt the American-Israeli military campaign in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump announced the agreement Tuesday on social media hours after Pakistan, a mediator in talks, implored the US leader to back off his deadline to unleash massive devastation on Iran if it did not meet his demands. The deal buys time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis.
Trump said he had agreed “to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” as long as Iran agrees to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”

For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Radio host Doug Krizner speaks with:

Bloomberg State Department and Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin
Bloomberg This Weekend co-host Christina Ruffini
Bloomberg White House and Washington correspondent Jeff Mason
Terry Haines, founder of Pangea Policy
Daniel Byman, Director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center

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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

President Donald Trump has threatened “all Hell” will rain down on Iran if it doesn’t agree to a ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern time on April 7. Is this a bluff intended to push Tehran to the negotiating table, or a credible threat?

With the deadline nearing, Iran rejected the latest US proposal for a deal to end the war and continued regional strikes. Trump intensified his threats — warning a “civilization will die tonight” — and the US reattacked Iran’s Kharg island. Further escalation appears more likely than negotiations. That’s consistent with our base case that the war will see a sharp escalation followed by a shift to lower-intensity fighting.

Treasuries fell amid mounting oil prices in the run-up to US President Donald Trump’s late-Tuesday deadline for Iran to agree to terms for ending American attacks.

The declines lifted yields by as much as five basis points, with long-maturity tenors rising most. Ten- and 30-year yields reached session highs against an array of conflicting signals about whether Trump’s threats of mass destruction are likely to come to pass.

Oil prices — a principal driver of Treasury yields since the US assault on Iran began Feb. 28 — rose, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures by as much as 4.6% from Monday’s multi-year high close. Yields reached year-to-date highs in late March as energy prices mounted, however they retreated from those levels amid mounting fears the oil shock will hit economic growth.

Today's show features:

• Jennifer Welch, Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst
• Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Portfolio Solutions Group CIO
• Michael Gross, SLR Capital Partners Co-Founder 
• Sastry Durvasula, TIAA Chief Operating, Information and Digital Officer

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Meet Mrs. Meyers: the 93-year-old woman who gave birth to nine children in ten years and inspired a legacy line of household cleaning products. One of her children decided to reinvent the tired, toxic, and boring category of household cleaning products by creating her own competition, in her mother's inspiration.

Monica Nassif, is founder of Mrs. Meyer's Clean Day and author of the new book, 'I Bottled My Mother: The Mrs. Meyer’s Story: Grit, Grime & Growing a Business'. She discusses tips of building a startup, the challenges of raising money as a woman in business, and daily meditations from Mrs. Meyers.

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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

President Donald Trump ramped up his threats ahead of a deadline he’s imposed for Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks on civilian infrastructure, while Tehran rejected a ceasefire proposal.

“The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” Trump said in a press conference Monday at the White House, in an apparent reference to his ultimatum to Iran that expires at 8 p.m. on Tuesday.

“Every bridge in Iran will be decimated, by 12 o’clock tomorrow night,” Trump said. “Every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again,” he added, noting that “it’ll happen over a period of four hours, if we wanted to. We don’t want that to happen.”
Trump told reporters earlier on Monday that it was “highly unlikely” that he’d move the deadline again. Iran, meanwhile, reportedly passed to mediator Pakistan a rejection of a ceasefire proposal. 

The regime demanded a permanent end to the war, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction efforts, in addition to protocol for safe passage through Hormuz, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency. The rejection is the latest blow to efforts to end the month-long war that has triggered a global energy crisis.

US allies are reportedly pressing for a last-minute deal with Iran, as Trump extended his deadline to Tuesday for Tehran to reopen the vital waterway. Trump during his press conference noted that free traffic of oil in Hormuz must be part of any deal to end the war.

Today's show features:

• Dan Williams, Bloomberg News Middle East Reporter
• Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute
• Will Kubzansky, Bloomberg News Refined Products Reporter
• Drive to the Close with Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, Global Investment Strategist at Hartford Funds

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