Bloomberg Surveillance

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 19th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Stuart Kaiser, Head: US Equity Trading Strategy at Citi, discusses political uncertainty weighing on US equities and whether the market will see a bounce back this week as it awaits tariffs on April 2. It comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the underlying economy is healthy and there’s no reason for the US to see a recession, while rejecting the idea of assuring there cannot be a downturn. Economists have warned there’s rising risk of an economic downturn thanks in part to uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff hikes.
2) Joumanna Bercetche, host of "Bloomberg Horizons," on the broken ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Israel launched airstrikes across Gaza, killing hundreds of people, and shattering a nearly two-month ceasefire with Hamas. The airstrikes were in response to Hamas' refusal to release remaining hostages, with Israel demanding the release of around 60 captives and Hamas' disarmament and withdrawal from power in Gaza. The conflict has led to a surge in gold and oil prices.
3) Cam Harvey, professor at Duke University, joins for an extended discussion on gold, the Fed, and a potentially slowing US economy. Fed Chair Powell faces a tricky task of reassuring investors about the economy while conveying the Fed's readiness to act if necessary, amid trade war uneasiness and market volatility just as this month's FOMC Meetings get underway.
4) Skylar Montgomery-Koning, FX Strategist at Barclays, on the bear and bull cases for a US dollar and a reshaping global FX landscape. Amid German rearmament, Germany’s DAX benchmark touching a new record high, and the euro firmed to a new five-month high versus the dollar.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including Warren Buffett changing rules for Berkshire's March Madness bracket, and why you shouldn't pick Duke.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Julia Coronado & Eric Balchunas.

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- Lotfi Karoui, Chief Credit Strategist at Goldman Sachs
- Stephen Trent, Director: America Airlines Research at Citi
- Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners
- Neil Dutta, Head: US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research

Lotfi Karoui with Goldman Sachs discusses opportunities in emerging markets during the recent US market selloff. Stephen Trent of Citi discusses the state of the US consumer as airlines express concern about outlooks. Veda Partners' Henrietta Trezy talks about recent headlines out of Washington including the near-government shutdown. Neil Dutta, Head: US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, discusses why he believes the US economy could experience a growth slowdown.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 18th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, talks about why she lowered her S&P call and talks about her outlook for US equities. Calvasina says the new estimate takes into account a drop in the US GDP target by the brokerage’s economics team. Still, the target represents a ~10% upside from the S&P 500’s Friday close.
2) Mike Green, Chief Investment Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins for an extended discussion on the equity market correction and whether it's time to lean into active management, consumer sentiment, and divesting from the US. Equity futures dropped after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed recent declines as healthy, telling NBC News he’s not worried by the slump in US stocks, after about $5 trillion was wiped from the S&P 500’s value and the index tumbled into a correction.
3) Julia Coronado, founder and president at MacroPolicy Perspectives, talks about the potential for a slowdown in the US economy and outlook for markets amid tariff uncertainty. President Donald Trump announced that he would impose both broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2.
4) Julie Norman, professor at University College-London, discusses the US ramping up attacks on the Houthi rebels in Yemen as President Trump turns his focus to Putin and Ukraine. President Donald Trump ordered military attacks on Houthi militia sites in Yemen in response to maritime attacks on vessels sailing through the Suez Canal and southern Red Sea. It comes as Trump said he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss ending the fighting in Ukraine.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including Disney's succession plan and kids using AI to cheat.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with John Stoltzfus & Doug Irwin.

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- Christopher Verrone, Head: Technical & Macro Strategy at Strategas
- Ed Yardeni, President at Yardeni Research
- Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General
- Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo

Christopher Verrone of Strategas breaks down the fundamentals behind equities entering a technical correction and whether stock could continue their decline. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research talks about why he's lowering his 2025 S&P year-end target. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte joins for a discussion about the US repositioning itself on the global stage and how it's reshaping the world order. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, on the outlook for rate cuts and a recession in 2025.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 14th, 2025
Featuring:
1) John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., discusses equities entering a correction and whether now's the right time to buy. the S&P 500 has fallen into its first 10% correction in almost two years, with concerns over President Trump's trade war and its impact on the economy. the market is pricing in a recession risk much bigger than credit markets.
2) Matt Diczok, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Chief Investment Office for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, on signals from the bond market regarding broader economic concerns.
3) Doug Irwin, professor at Dartmouth and global trade expert, talks about his Foreign Affairs piece on trade policy and tariffs. In a sign of a trade-war escalation, Trump threatened to enact a 200% tariff on European wine, champagne and other alcoholic beverages. Also on Thursday, Trump said he would not repeal tariffs on steel and aluminum that took effect this week, nor back off plans for sweeping reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners set to start as soon as April 2.
4) Sheila Kahyaoglu, Managing Director: Equity Research at Jeffries, breaks down airline earnings this week. American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have slashed their financial forecasts, citing a rapid reversal of demand trends and a broad weakness in consumer spending. Grim updates from airlines and retailers have added to market sentiment.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Geoffrey Yu & Bob Hormats.

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- Howard Lutnick, US Commerce Secretary
- John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.
- Bill Dudley, former President of NY Federal Reserve

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick joins Jon, Lisa, and Annmarie to discuss the latest on the Trump administration's tariff and economic policies. John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., talks about the downswing in equities and whether the market is just in a correction or if there are actual policy concerns weighing on stocks. Bill Dudley, former President of NY Federal Reserve and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, discusses his latest Bloomberg commentary.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 13th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Geoffrey Yu, Senior EMEA Strategist at BNY, joins for an extended discussion on the path for US rates and the American economy, as well as equities, amid mounting policy uncertainty. The risk of a US government shutdown comes at a moment when financial markets are hyper-sensitive to new disruption from Trump-led tariffs, with equity strategists recently tempering their expectations about the US market.
2) Julia Pollak, Chief Economist at ZipRecruiter, reacts to jobless claims and talks about the state of US labor. Despite the January improvement for US job openings, recent reports indicate a labor market slowdown, and investors expect the Federal Reserve to make interest-rate cuts this year.
3) Bob Hormats, Vice Chairman of Kissinger Associates and former Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment, joins to discuss conversations he's having with allies overseas, and why there's so much confusion over tariffs and our interactions with allies. President Trump said the US would respond to the European Union's countermeasures against his new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, raising the risk of further escalation in his global trade war. The EU launched "swift and proportionate countermeasures" on US imports
4) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, on the US economy, US growth, and whether tariffs could actually help the economy. Companies worldwide are planning for the worst amid President Donald Trump's tariff barrage, with many setting up "tariff task forces" to mitigate the impact on sales, profits, and market shares. Companies are exploring alternative production locations, such as Vietnam, and adjusting their business models to minimize the impact of tariffs.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including vaccinating poultry to bring down egg prices, the Grateful Dead's 60th anniversary commemoration, and the newest cruise offerings.

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