Bloomberg Surveillance

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature a conversation with Abby Joseph Cohen.

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- Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist at EvercoreISI
- Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James
- Everett Eissenstat, Former Deputy Director for the National Economic Council
- Kit Juckes, Chief FX Strategist at Societe Generale

Julian Emanuel of EvercoreISI discusses his S&P target and how the market could be reshaped by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty. Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James, joins to discuss the severity of President Trump's economic and trade policies. Eerett Eissenstat, Former Deputy Director for the National Economic Council, talks about how tariffs could affect the US and global economies and whether President Trump could change course. Kit Juckes at Societe Generale talks about currency moves amid a US-led trade war.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 4th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Brendan Murray, Bloomberg News Trade Tsar, joins to discuss the economic fallout of the US-led trade war. President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican imports and raised the charge on China to 20%, affecting roughly $1.5 trillion in annual imports. Canada and China have retaliated with their own tariffs as Mexico weighs what it's next move will be.
2) Barbara Reinhard, CIO: Multi Asset Strategies & Solutions at Voya Investment Management, discusses why she believes it's time to buy equities and why European fundamentals look positive. Stocks in Europe retreated due to concerns over potential US tariffs, with investors watching for hints on future trade steps in President Trump's address to Congress today, as well as China's response to US tariffs.
3) Abby Joseph Cohen, professor at Columbia Business School, joins for an extended discussion on the economic policies of a second Trump administration and the risks of cutting government research funding. New levies mark President Trump’s biggest push to remake global trade, and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reshaping government spending with unclear economic consequences.
4) Jean Boivin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, talks about how his group is navigating market and geopolitical uncertainties amid a market selloff. It comes with the US yield curve steepening as President Trump's tariff threats came to fruition.
5) Lisa Mateo breaks down the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including what could get more expensive under Trump tariffs, vendors advertising tariff-free products, and Chipotle announcing it'll foot the bill on tariff hikes.

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President Donald Trump delivered on his threat to hit Canada and Mexico with sweeping import levies and doubled an existing charge on China, spurring swift reprisals that plunged the world economy into a deepening trade war.     

This podcast brings you the latest details and analysis, from Nathan Hager and Karen Moskow on Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition.     

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The US new tariffs — 25% duties on most Canadian and Mexican imports and raising the charge on China to 20% — impact roughly $1.5 trillion in annual imports, an expansive move signaling to markets that the Republican president is committed to wielding import duties to obtain fresh revenue and create domestic manufacturing jobs. 
Canada hit back with phased levies on $107 billion worth of US goods while China imposed tariffs of as high as 15%, mainly on American agricultural shipments. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said her government would await Trump’s decision before reacting with any retaliatory measures and is expected to address reporters on Tuesday morning local time. 
The moves mark a new phase in Trump’s broadening economic and diplomatic reset of America’s place in the world. Confirmation of the levies lays to rest doubts the US president would actually follow through on his repeated threats to upend global economic ties to counter what he casts as imbalanced trade. 
“We are in a new era where the mantra is to protect markets and the US is leading in this,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis. “China retaliated focusing on Trump’s staunchest voters in the agriculture sector. But that is not going to stop him.” 
The tariffs bring American import levies to their highest average level seen since 1943, according to the Budget Lab at Yale. That would lead to as much as $2,000 in additional costs for US households. It also will mean significantly slower economic growth in the US, especially if other countries retaliate, according to a report published Monday. 
And Trump has indicated more tariffs are to come, including in April reciprocal tariffs on all US trading partners that have their own levies or other barriers on American products, as well as sectoral taxes of 25% on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Those tariffs are also poised to be cumulative — in addition to any across-the-board tariff on a particular nation. 
Trump has also said a 25% tariff is in the works for the European Union and is investigating levies on copper and lumber imports. Steel and aluminum tariffs are also set to take effect on March 12, further impacting Canada and Mexico.
Financial markets largely took the moment the tariffs came into effect in stride — with Chinese stocks even climbing intraday. In the run-up to the deadline, though, US equities tumbled the most this year, while Treasury yields earlier fell to the lowest in four months and oil dropped to a three-month low. 
The Canadian government late Monday announced it will proceed with a sweeping package of counter-tariffs against US-made products. The first stage is 25% tariffs on about C$30 billion ($20.6 billion) worth of goods from US exporters to go into effect at the same time as the US levies. A second round of tariffs at the same rate will be placed on C$125 billion of products in three weeks — a list that will include big-ticket items like cars, trucks, steel and aluminum. 
“Canada will not let this unjustified decision go unanswered,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a statement. The retaliation plan is the same as the one he announced in February after Trump signed his executive order for broad tariffs. 

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Peter Trubowitz & David Bahnsen.

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- Mohamed El-Erian, President at Queens' College, Cambridge
- Tobin Marcus, Head: Policy & Politics at Wolfe Research
- Liz Young Thomas, Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi
- Steve Ricchiuto, Chief US Economist at Mizuho

Mohamed El-Erian, President at Queens' College, Cambridge, discusses slowing US growth as President Trump readies to place tariffs on key allies and China. Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research talks about reciprocal tariffs and what levies could actually look like. SoFi's Liz Young Thomas discusses how equities will fare amid slowing growth along with tariff and inflation fears. Steve Ricchiuto, Chief US Economist at Mizuho, discusses how policy could ripple through markets and previews upcoming eco data.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 3rd, 2025
Today's Podcast Features:
1) Peter Trubowitz, professor at London School of Economics, joins for an extended discussion on tariffs and geopolitics. It comes as President Donald Trump is planning to impose new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as doubling a levy on China, which would apply to roughly $1.5 trillion in annual imports.
2) Jack Devine, founder and Chairman at the Arkin Group, joins to discuss Friday's Oval Office meltdown and what's ahead for the US Trans Atlantic alliance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says he is willing to meet with President Trump again if invited. Zelenskiy signaled that Ukraine is ready to accept a natural resources deal with the US, and European leaders are trying to mend the break between the US and Ukraine.
3) Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, joins to discuss the outlook for equities amid uncertain US growth and incoming tariffs. Markets are bracing for a looming March 4 tariff deadline, with potential levies of 25% on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on China.
4) Lisa Mateo breaks down the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including Oscars Backlash, the Yankees' decision to lift its beard ban, and a rare coffee bean that could impact climate issues.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Michael Darda & Frances Donald.

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- Steven Major, Global Head: FI Research at HSBC
- Kelly Ann Shaw, Former Deputy NEC Director
- Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at Citi
- Michael Kushma, CIO: Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management

Steven Major, Global Head: FI Research at HSBC, discusses signals from the bond market on outlook for the US and global economies. Kelly Ann Shaw, Former Deputy NEC Director, discusses President Trump's trade proposals. Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst and Michael Kushma of Morgan Stanley Investment Management react to the latest PCE data.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyFebruary 28th, 2025
Featuring:

• Neil Dutta, Head of US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, Ian Lyngen, Head of US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets, Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, react to PCE and discuss the outlook for US economic growth
• Jordan Rochester, Head of FICC Strategy at Mizuho EMEA, on USD strength and his note on the Japan cyclical story
• Mick Mulroy, co-founder at the Lobo Institute, on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visiting President Trump at the White House
• Lisa Mateo on newspapers

Eric Mollo

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