Bloomberg Surveillance

US job growth was far less robust in the year through March than previously reported, adding to mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by a record 911,000, or 0.6%, according to the government’s preliminary benchmark revision out Tuesday. The final figures are due early next year.
Before the report, the government’s payrolls data indicated employers added nearly 1.8 million total jobs in the year through March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or an average of 149,000 per month. The revision showed average monthly job growth was roughly half that.

For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Scarlet Fu spoke with:

• Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist
• Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent
• Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research chief Economist 

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature a conversation with Steven Englander.

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- Ellen Zentner, Global Head: Macro Investing Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley
- Jim Bianco, founder at Bianco Research
- Eric Resnick, CEO at KSL Capital Partners
- Tobin Marcus, Head: Policy & Politics at Wolfe Research

Ellen Zentner, Global Head: Macro Investing Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley, joins to discuss her outlook for the labor market and a September rate cut. Jim Bianco, founder at Bianco Research, discusses whether the Fed is behind the curve as the labor market shows continued weakening. Eric Resnick, CEO at KSL Capital Partners, discusses consumer health and the outlook for travel. Tobin Marcus, Head: Policy & Politics at Wolfe Research, talks about the prospects of a government shutdown and President Trump's economic and political priorities.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneySeptember 8th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Steve Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and of North America Strategy at Standard Chartered, brings us into the market open and talks about a weak dollar, tomorrow's labor revisions, and his call for a 50bps cut in September. Meanwhile, strategists including David Kostin of Goldman Sachs and Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley expect further gains in US equities, with Kostin reiterating a year-end target for the S&P 500 of 6,600 points.
2) Mark Geller, Global Head of Bank Debt Capital Markets at Barclays, talks issuance trends for banks, global corporate debt, and the intersection of global corporate debt and ballooning government spending.
3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins to talk about tariffs and the prospects of a government shutdown in September.
4) Stephen Carroll, host of Bloomberg's "Daybreak Europe" in London, joins from Paris to discuss the possible collapse of the French government today. Political uncertainty in Japan and France adds to a torrent of US data this week that will help determine the Federal Reserve's policy path, with a September interest-rate cut fully priced in.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Rebecca Patterson & Claudia Sahm.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneySeptember 5th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy at RBC, and Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, react to the August jobs report and discuss the outlook for a rate cut. Money markets are fully pricing in a Fed quarter-point cut this month and see at least two by year-end.
2) Ken Rogoff, professor at Harvard University, former IMF Chief economist, and author of "Our Dollar, Your Problem," joins to discuss the US economy and jobs market, as well as his book on the dollar and recent Foreign Affairs article on Washington's spending crisis.
3) Rebecca Patterson, former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater, joins for an extended discussion on jobs, economic data, and Fed independence. It comes as Stephen Miran, President Trump's pick for the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, pushed back against Democratic concerns that he would do Trump's bidding at the central bank. His nomination has raised questions over Fed independence.
4) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Business Insider story on NFL fans streaming without cable, and Bloomberg's story on pizza-flavored vodka.

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- Howard Lutnick, US Commerce Secretary
- Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock
- Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research
- Michael Nathanson, Senior Analyst at Moffettnathanson

Howard Lutnick, US Commerce Secretary, joins to discuss President Trump's economic priorities. Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock, and Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, react to the August jobs report and discuss the outlook for a rate cut. Michael Nathanson, Senior Analyst at Moffettnathanson, breaks down the White House tech meeting Thursday night.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Anna Wong & Constance Hunter.

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- Omar Aguilar, CEO and CIO at Charles Schwab Investment Management
- Subadra Rajappa, Head: US Rates Strategy at Societe Generale
- Monica Guerra, Head: US Policy at Morgan Stanley
- Brooke Roach, Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Omar Aguilar, CEO and CIO at Charles Schwab Investment Management, joins to discuss his outlook for equities amid a weakening labor market and uncertain policy. Subadra Rajappa, Head: US Rates Strategy at Societe Generale, talks about the path for rate cuts should the jobs report for August show further labor weakness. Monica Guerra, Head: US Policy at Morgan Stanley, talks about President Trump's tariff regime and the latest on his economic and political priorities. Brooke Roach, Analyst at Goldman Sachs, talks about consumer and retail health.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneySeptember 4th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Stuart Kaiser, Head: US Equity Trading Strategy at Citi, joins to discuss his S&P target, the broadening of the equity rally, and opportunities in small caps. Wall Street strategists see signs that investors are becoming more concerned about Federal Reserve independence as President Donald Trump seeks to impose his will on the central bank and pushes for interest-rate cuts.
2) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, discusses recent eco data and what it portends about the path of rate cuts in 2025, not just September. Positioning in stock, bond and gold markets suggests that investors are preparing for a potential rise in inflation, according to the team at JPMorgan Chase.
3) Monica Guerra, Head of US Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, joins to discuss President Trump's economic and political priorities. President Trump asked the US Supreme Court to uphold his global tariffs, seeking review in a case that could affect trade and give him broad new leverage over the world economy.
4) Ben McMillan, CIO at IDX Advisors, talks about the record rise in gold and the return of the bond vigilantes. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group say that growing concerns regarding US institutional credibility are creating significant tail risks that could lead to commodity price spikes, including in gold.

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