BM Talks

In the latest episode, Helen Thomas and Ben Ashby ask:

1. Will Burnham call an early election before the economic storm hits?
2. Can the bond market stomach Burnham's economic plans?
3. Why is France's bond crisis escalating now?
4. Could the ECB really rescue France?
5. Is Britain's energy policy heading for disaster?
6. Are we on the brink of a systemic financial crisis?
7. Could the US midterms bring Trump's agenda to a halt?

PART TWO of our Bond Market special is here! Having listened to "For Your Eyes Only" you'll be ready for "Quantum of Solvency" where we consider how politicians can stop being in hock to the bond markets. We are joined once again by market expert, and friend of the show, Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe.

We discuss:

• Being “in hock to the bond markets” mistakes the messenger for the constraint - markets are pricing underlying economic and political choices, not inventing them.
• Britain sits inside a global financial system - international trade and capital flows affect UK borrowing costs, asset prices and ultimately the shape of the economy.
• The important question is not simply how much government borrows or spends, but what it gets for the money - spending labelled “investment” is only useful if it raises productive capacity.
• Credibility comes from arithmetic, not persuasion - governments can change fiscal rules and institutions, but they cannot abolish the need for investors to believe the numbers add up.
• The ultimate constraint is real resources, not money - sustainable growth comes from creating more productive capacity; as Ben puts it, “the problem isn’t creating another pound, it’s creating another thing worth buying with it.”

++ Emergency Podcast Klaxon ++

It's happening! Bonds are selling off again! What's going on? Can politicians afford to go to party conferences when fiscal plans may be in tatters as soon as they're announced? Do you know your swap rate from your Bank Rate? What even is "The Bond Market"?

We have recorded a two-part podcast special on Bonds with market expert, and friend of the show, Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe to discuss all this and more. In Part One we cover:

• A bond is simply a tradable IOU - and why bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
• There is no single “interest rate” - Bank Rate, two-year rates, mortgage rates and thirty-year gilt yields can all move differently for different reasons.
• “The bond market” is not one entity - it is a collection of pension funds, insurers, banks, hedge funds, central banks and others, all acting for different reasons.
• Bond markets are part of the economy’s plumbing - they underpin government borrowing, mortgages, corporate finance, collateral and the wider financial system.
• The market prices both cost and credibility - not just how much it will cost to borrow, but how long investors are willing to lend.

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks for a Q3 update from our regular guest Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe.
 
We asked: 

• Are energy prices going back up? 
• How long will the AI boom last?
• Does Brexit matter?
• Will there be a UK snap election?
• Should the UK Treasury be divided up?
• What will Andy Burnham do?

We are joined once again by Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science at Manchester University and co-author of the definitive "The British General Election of 2019 (Bible of General Elections)" to discuss the Makerfield by-election. He is also the new Elections Analyst for Sky News and his Substack is The Swingometer.

We asked: 

• Who is likely to win the Makerfield by-election?
• Who are the Makerfield voters? 
• What is the path to victory for Labour and for Reform?
• What role will Rupert Lowe's Restore play? 
• Has there ever been such a consequentual by-election in British political history?  

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Kallum Pickering. He is Chief Economist at Peel Hunt and a columnist for The Telegraph.

We asked: 

• What is the economic outlook given the Iran war?
• How do we monitor the air pockets that might show up when the rubber hits the road and the supply shortage manifests in the markets?
• What would a US/Iran deal look like? 
• Is the Chinese Yuan going to replace the US Dollar as the reserve currency?
• Why do you see no Bank of England rate hikes this year in your central scenario?
• How could the BOE improve its communications?
• How worried are you about UK fiscal sustainability? 

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks for a Q2 update from Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe.

We asked: 

• How long will the energy shock last?
• How is the conflict in the Middle East part of the US National Security Plan?
• How does this compare to the Tanker Wars of the 1980s and the Oil Embargo of the 1970s?
• How will interest rate markets respond?
• Could we see a currency crisis and capital controls?
• What is happening to market liquidity? 
• Have we seen the top in US stock markets?
• What happens to Gold?

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks once again by Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe. 

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science at Manchester University and co-author of the definitive "The British General Election of 2019 (Bible of General Elections)".  

We asked him:

- Who is likely to win the Gorton & Denton by-election?

- What is the path to victory for the Greens, Labour and Reform respectively? 

- What would be a good result for Keir Starmer?

- What would be a bad result for the Labour Party?  

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Bill Dinning. He is Chief Investment Officer of W1M, the UK wealth and investment manager formed in 2024 through the merger of Waverton Investment Management and London and Capital Group. Bill was previously Head of Investment Strategy at Coal Pension Trustees and prior to that at Kames Capital in Edinburgh.

We asked: 

• Are marketd underestimating the inflationary impact of tariffs?
• Is there still value in the US markets given the meteoric rise of the MAG7?
• Why do you see more rate cuts from the Bank of England?
• Is Japan's renaissance real this time?
• Why do you still recommend holding Gold?
• What does McCarthy-era America tell us about Trump 2.0?