BM Talks

We asked:

• How has QE evolved since the financial crisis?
• What are we to make of increased borrowing by governments?
• What is the major source of systemic risk today?
• What is causing wobbles in the bond market?
• How far can we make a comparison between 2020 and 2008?
• What will happen to the US Dollar?
• What is the outlook for stocks, bonds and alternative assets?

We asked:

• What is the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol?
• What happened over Article 16 and why?
• What are the immediate implications for NI businesses? 
• How much friction is there between EU vs UK, UK vs ROI etc?
• Will we see a United Ireland and Independent Scotland in 10 years?
• Will we return to violence?

Our speakers are from either side of the debate. 

We asked:

• What is going to happen to inflation, interest rates and volatility?
• What will the Fed do?
• What measure of inflation is the best one to follow?
• What is the risk from investing in mortgage securities?
• What part does convexity play in interest rate markets?
• How did you trade last March?
• Where is there now value in the markets?

We asked:

• What does the post pandemic world look like?
• What sectors will struggle and which will not
• Was the massive intervention of March 2020 a massive bail out?
• What advice would you give the Fed?
• What will happen to Europe with leadership changes?
• Britain after Brexit?
• What will Biden achieve?

We asked:

• Are stockmarkets bubbly?
• What next in UK politics after Brexit?
• What sectors will outperform and which will struggle?
• How has technology changed the markets? 
• How will The City adapt to the new normal? 

We asked:

• What are the challenges facing the fund management industry? 
• Is ESG a bubble or is it here to stay? 
• What does Brexit mean for the City?
• Has the government done enough to save small businesses?
• How do music rights work as an alternative asset?
• What advice would she give investors?

For a full breakdown of the half hour podcast, see below:

01:00 - What challenges face the fund management industry?

02:57 - Passive management has seen the rise of mega firms, can boutiques survive?

03:49 - Is ESG a bubble or here to stay?

05:40 - What challenges does Brexit pose to fund management?

08:00 - Looking back at when we entered the EU in the 1970s, how politically active were you then?

09:33 - Will you always be active in politics?

10:10 - Small businesses are in dire straits, are they able to get the financing they need?

11:31 - Would it have been better for the government to take equity stakes?
 
14:31 - Are banks getting money out there?

16.44 - How do these specialist areas, like lending litigation and funding for music rights, work?

19:32 - Aren't young people rediscovering vinyl?

19.46 - If we can describe it as an alternative asset, can the man on the street get involved in music rights?

21.23 - Where do you see growth in the next few years, is there anything else on your horizon

26.11 - GameStop, do you have any thoughts on that?
 
28:28 - What advice would you give to millennials starting out on their investment journey

We asked CJ Mahoney, the former Deputy United States Trade Representative under Robert Lighthizer in the Trump Administration:

• Will China tariffs be renegotiated?
• Will the UK or EU get a trade deal with US?
• What will Biden’s flagship policy be, given a 50-50 Senate?
• What was the Trump administration’s greatest achievement?
• What happens to the Republican Party post-Trump?
• What is the biggest geopolitical risk out there?

In response, he discusses the outlook for relations with China, the chances of a UK/US trade deal, the potential future leaders of the Republican Party, the key Senators to watch, and what the Biden Administration is likely to achieve. 

In this episode of BM Talks we are joined by Sir Paul Tucker who reveals: 

1. Why central banks are struggling to communicate their actions
2. What QE is doing needs to be examined
3. How QE works must be better explained
4. Debt needs to be termed out
5. How Shadow Banks remain a significant risk to the market
6. How fiscal policy can coordinate but not dominate monetary policy

"We should be relying on the central banks to do what they definitely can do and using the fiscal authority to do something that they can more certainly do than the central bank, which is to get spending going"

"Some MPC members now talk as if QE is mainly a signalling device. If they do, then their votes for the scale of QE are completely inexplicable"

"The extraordinary "Non-QE" QE in March.... It’s pretty hard to make sense of the March and April interventions... without thinking that this is price support"