BM Talks

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Mike Bell. Mike is an independent macro strategist who spent a decade at JP Morgan Asset Management where he led international investment teams and advised institutional clients on the economic outlook across asset classes. He studied Social and Political Sciences at Cambridge University and is a CFA Charterholder.

We asked: 

• Why do you think the Bank of England will cut rates further?
• What drives the difference between UK and Eurozone inflation?
• Where should investors put their money for the long term? 
• With the collapse of First Brands causing question marks over just how exposed everyone is to private credit, how should allocators think about non-public markets?
• Should fund managers spend more time on history and politics than economics these days?

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Silvana Tenreyro. Silvana sat on the Bank of England's MPC from 2017 until 2023 and is a professor of Economics at the LSE. 

We asked: 

• What is the biggest lesson from her time on the MPC which covered the aftermath of the Brexit vote along with Covid and the war in Ukraine?
• Is central bank credibility at risk?
• Does the Bernanke Review of the Bank of England go far enough?
• How should we think of the "neutral rate" of interest?
• How useful is forward guidance?
• How will the balance between monetary and fiscal policy evolve?

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Mark Mcvitie, Director of the Labour Growth Group. With around 100 Labour MPs as members, the group is 'committed to tearing down the barriers to growth'. Mark worked in communications in the financial services sector before moving into political campaigning. 

We asked: 

• What is the Labour Growth Group's core mission? 
• How does it work with other Labour factions? 
• Is it a "pro-Starmer" group? 
• In the lead up to the Budget, what tax reforms would you recommend to unlock growth?
• Does the OBR need reform to help bring growth?
• Can any government create growth given the fiscal constraints?
• How does the Labour Party respond to an electorate looking for political disruption?

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Dame Harriett Baldwin, MP for West Worcestershire who served as Chair of the Treasury Select Committee and is now Shadow Business and Trade Minister. Prior to joining parliament she was Head of Currency Management at JP Morgan Investment Management.

We asked: 

• How do you assess the UK's fiscal risks right now?
• Do the current fiscal rules command credibility in the markets?
• Do you think UK gilts retain safe haven status?
• Should the Treasury Select Committee have a beefed up role in fiscal oversight?
• Did the Bank of England get it wrong on QE and QT? 

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Alex Patelis, who served as Chief Economic Adviser to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis between 2019-2024. Alex also worked in investment banks including as Managing Director of Global Research at Merrill Lynch and studied under Ben Bernanke for his PhD from Princeton. 

We asked:

• Ten years ago, Greece voted No in a referendum to a bailout, only for the new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to perform the exact opposite three weeks later. What happened?
• Greece is now running a primary budget surplus with investment grade debt. How was this achieved? 
• What lessons can the rest of the world take from this?
• What does the German "Zeitenwende" mean for the EU?
• Is this the end for the dominance of the US Dollar?
• What advice do you have for Scott Bessent, who also moved from the world of finance into politics?
• What do you think of populism? 

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights. She is an expert in sanctions and trade policy with a focus on oil markets in the Middle East. Her substack has the ever-more relevant name of "Weaponized Economy".     

We asked: 

• What happens to the oil price given the Iran/Israel conflict?
• What will be the response of the GCC countries and China?
• How will Trump's trade policies affect GDP? 
• Can sanctions ever really work? 
• Would China dump US Treasuries? 
• Will Russia come back into the fold? 
• Is Trump the strongest strongman?

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Dr Nigel Bowles, who taught American politics and history at Oxford and Edinburgh universities, along with authoring many books such as "Government and Politics of the United States".   

We asked: 

• Does the US Constitution prevent an authoritarian President?
• Can the US President remove the Federal Reserve Chair? 
• Are tariffs the exclusive power of the executive branch?
• Is Trump a genuine threat to the rule of law?
• Are Americans more polarised than at any time in history?

We talk to Meyrick Chapman, Principal and Founder of Hedge Analytics Ltd, about: 

• How should we look at the US trade balance?
• What was the "glitch" in The Matrix on Liberation Day?
• What does the Moody's downgrade mean for US debt?
• Where could systemic risk emerge?
• Why does the market respond dramatically to known unknowns?

We asked Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe:

• What next for the S&P500?
• What is the Eurodollars market and why does it matter?
• Is Trump trying to accelerate a long term rebalancing of the global economy?
• Where could systemic risk emerge?
• What countries are vulnerable in a new era for foreign policy?

Rob Ford, Professor of Politics at Manchester University and co-author of Brexitland, talks to us about:
- What will happen in the 3 by-elections
- What this means for the UK General Election
- The new division between voters
- Why Nigel Farage isn't done yet
- The outlook for UK politics