The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its key interest rate — for the fourth consecutive time — was no surprise. However, this time the central bank signalled that the discussion going forward won’t be about how high its key rate should go, but how long it will stay at 5%. 

Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault is back to break down the Bank of Canada’s latest decision and what factored into it, why inflation remains stubborn, when rate cuts could begin, and the risk factors that could push that timing back. 

For an up-to-date breakdown of the Bank of Canada's key interest rate and its change over time alongside inflation numbers, visit our interest rate page. 

Key moments this episode: 

1:24 — Why this announcement is a bit like Groundhog Day 

2:02 — The latest BoC decision wasn’t a surprise, but what’s the big takeaway? 

2:40 — What did BoC Governor Tiff Macklem say that signals there may be a cut before too long? 

3:21 — How did the December inflation numbers factor into the Bank of Canada’s decision? 

4:50 — Why has inflation been so stubborn? 

6:11 — Are geopolitical factors like the attacks in the Red Sea playing into inflation?  

7:44 — Is a potential surge in housing demand putting pressure on inflation? 

9:12 — What other factors might the BoC be watching to make their next decision? 

10:10 — Later this month we get the latest GDP numbers, what might those look like and how may they affect the BoC’s next decision? 

11:13 — Are we out of the woods in terms of recession risk? 

12:26 — The US economy has been doing very well, how does that factor into the performance of our economy and this latest decision? 

13:15 — Why is US inflation coming down faster? 

14:02 — Will the Fed’s upcoming decision have an impact on what the BoC does? 

14:40 — Is June still when interest rates are expected to come down? 

15:22 — What should a mortgage holder or would-be home buyer be taking away from this? 

16:12 — Three big takeaways for Canadians from this latest decision