This week Will and Ben breakdown U.S. wheat conditions and improved Argentinian soybeans.
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):
- March 2024 corn down $0.08 at $4.55
- December 2024 corn down $.09 $5.89
- March 2024 soybeans down $.28 at $12.45
- November 2024 soybeans down $.20 at $12.02
- March soybean oil up 0.48 cents at 47.81 cents/lb
- March soybean meal down $11.00 at $368.50/short ton
- March 2024 wheat down $.10 at $5.96
- July 2024 wheat down $.09 at $6.17
- March WTI Crude Oil up $.20 at $71.09/barrel
Weekly Highlights
• Last week's State Stories Report showed a mixed bag for winter wheat conditions rated good to excellent: Colorado was reported at 61% down from 67% last year, Kansas at 43% up from 33%, Missouri at 73% up from 44%, Ohio at 71% up from 49%.
• It was reported the US economy added 216,000 jobs in December besting forecasts of 170,000. The US unemployment rate ticked down to 3.7%. Hourly wages increased 0.4% as expected and increased 4.1% on the year.
• US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down 231 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 457.80 on a 13% reduction in gasoline demand.
• US ethanol production pulled back to 308 million gallons after nearly setting the all time record at 325 million gallons the week before. Even with the lower production, the softer use built ethanol stocks 3 million gallons.
• Argentina’s grain belt in 2023 had its wettest December since 2009 at 33% more rainfall than average. 3% of Argentina’s soybeans were in bad conditions compared to 30% last year.
• Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were very weak with corn, soybeans, and total wheat all coming in below pre-report trade expectations and very bearish to the market.
• Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed. Corn, grain sorghum and total wheat shipments were all up week over week while down for soybeans. Soybean inspections were bearish- below all pre-report estimates, while wheat inspections were bullish coming in above all expectations.
Topics:
- Market recap
- Winter wheat conditions
- Small grain acreage expectations
- Midwest snow and rainfall
- South American weather
- South American crop conditions
- Reports to watch
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