This week Will and Ben preview the top three crop market factors to watch in 2024.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
- March 2024 corn down $0.02 at $4.71
- December 2024 corn down $0.01 $5.03
- March 2024 soybeans down $.09 at $13.07
- November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $12.45
- March soybean oil down 1.22 cents at 48.18 cents/lb
- March soybean meal down $5.60 at $386.00/short ton
- March 2024 wheat up $.13 at $6.28
- July 2024 wheat up $.12 at $6.45
- January WTI Crude Oil down $1.97 at $71.84/barrel
Weekly highlights:
- US economic updates were light between Christmas and New Years. Initial jobless claims were at 218,000 were fractionally higher week over week and slightly higher than expectations.
- US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve and gasoline stocks decreased 299 and 28 million gallons while distillate stocks were up 31 million gallons week over week.
- US ethanol production increased to 325 million gallons produced on the latest week of data- up 10 million gallons from the week prior and 42 million gallons more than the same week last year. The weekly volume nearly matched the all time record set December 1, 2017.
- Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were up week over week for corn, soybean meal, and total wheats, but down for soybeans and soybean oil. Soybean sales were well below pre-report expectations.
- Argentina experienced some heavy rains in the northern crop areas last week. Brazilian rains were light and confined to the south and the northeast. Better rain coverage was expected over the New Years weekend.
- Open interest of futures and options contracts increased for Chicago wheats and cotton while falling for corn, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, and rough rice.
- Managed money traders sold off 2,986 positions of Chicago wheats increasing the net short and 5,499 contracts of Chicago soybeans decreasing the net long. Traders increased Chicago corn positions 3,098 positions decreasing the net short.
Top 3 things to watch in 2024:
1. The resiliency of US grain and oilseed demand with higher US production.
a. Even though the western corn belt experienced a drought in 2023- the US set a new corn production record exceeding the 2016 volume by 86.2 million bushels.
b. For beans this was the seventh highest volume.
2. Higher interest rates and expenses.
a. 2024 Cost of Production is expected lower on lower seed, fertilizer and chemical costs more than offsetting higher machinery, labor and interest expenses.
3. Weather concerns heading into 2024 planting season
a. Some relief expected in the western US, but drought maintains in Missouri and Iowa while extending into the eastern corn belt. History would tell us that dry planting conditions increases corn acreage in the US.
Topics:
- Market recap
- Winter dryness expected to continue
- Low Panama Canal water levels redirect shipments
- 2024 input price expectations
- Global conflict and political climate discussion
- Reports to watch
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