This week, we’re examining how key economic indicators, policy changes, and market trends are influencing everything from interest rates to housing affordability. Inflation has officially returned to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, but what does this mean for the direction of interest rates heading into 2025? 

The Bank faces a delicate balancing act with inflation on target, GDP revisions upward, and the U.S. economy remaining strong. Projections suggest we’ll see modest rate cuts early in the year, stabilizing at an overnight rate of 3% by March. Homeowners renewing mortgages in 2025 should plan accordingly, as this will still translate to higher payments compared to the historically low rates of recent years.

On the international front, the potential effects of a Trump presidency loom large over Canada’s economy. Historically, Canada has avoided recessions during periods of U.S. growth exceeding 2%, suggesting some economic resilience. Trump’s focus on energy infrastructure could revive projects like the Keystone XL pipeline, boosting Alberta’s energy sector, while a weak Canadian dollar might attract foreign investment into commercial real estate. Additionally, changes in U.S. immigration policy could prompt an influx of skilled workers into Canada, potentially offsetting recent adjustments to our own immigration targets.

Closer to home, the housing market is facing mounting pressures. Despite ambitious governmental promises to build 3.9 million homes over the next seven years, housing starts have dropped sharply—down 12% nationwide and 30% in British Columbia year-over-year. 

Compounding this, delayed projects and developer insolvencies, like THIND’s high-profile collapse, are exacerbating the supply crisis. THIND’s troubles have halted thousands of planned units, underscoring the strain that rising interest rates are placing on even established developers. This ongoing shortfall in housing starts signals a grim future, with significant shortages expected in completions by 2027-2029.

Mortgage renewals are another pressing issue, with 23% of all existing Canadian mortgages set to renew in 2025 and 31% in 2026—above the typical annual renewal rate of 20%. For Vancouver homeowners who locked in rates as low as 2% in 2020, the shift to today’s rates could mean monthly payment increases of nearly 30%. However, the average 21% appreciation in home values over the past five years offers a potential safety net, allowing homeowners to downsize while preserving some equity and solvency.

From inflation and interest rates to housing starts and developer challenges, this episode covers the critical issues shaping Canada’s real estate future. Stay tuned as we break down what it all means for you, whether you’re a homeowner, investor, or industry professional.

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Ryan Dash PREC

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