Cannabis Investing Network

After an extremely positive start to 2021 we find ourselves asking - should we be excited for what's ahead or nervous of the recent rally we've had?

In this episode we discuss:

- The democrats winning both senate seats and flipping the senate

- The state of the market: should investors be worried by the speculation?

- How investors are moving from "the middle to the edges" across the market

- What is still to come for US cannabis

- How values can evolve over time and how investors have to adapt

- The various capital raises by Jushi, Columbia Care, Curaleaf, Planet 13 and more

- Why what worked in the past for cannabis may not work in the future

- The importance of the MSOS ETF and why it is just getting started

- What happens as institutions start to come in the space

- How to position yourself incase a correction comes

- Why "this time is different" for cannabis investors

In this episode we have some fun and share forecasts and ideas for what we expect to see in 2021

1) Multiple Ways to Win - there will be many different wants for companies and investors to profit in the new year

2) 2021 will be the "Year of Catalysts"

- Potential for new states like New York to flip to rec (also RI, CT, NM, VA)

- Markets transitioning to adult-use: AZ & NJ

- Existing markets having organic growth: MI, FL, IL, PA

- Medical markets opening up or issuing lics: GA, TX, MS

- Potential for political tailwinds if Dems win both senate seats: SAFE and uplisting

3) Volatility + Exercise Caution

- Investors have been spoiled by this bull market

- Keep some cash, stay hedged and be prudent

- Expect bumps along the way

4) Stay Flexible - things change quickly

- investors will need to learn on the fly as the market evolves

- your 2020 playbook that succeeded may need to change for 2021

- higher valuations mean investors need to be more selective and smarter

5) The Great Separation Continues

- Which markets will continue to outperform and why?

- Why will losing markets continue to struggle?

6) The Big 4 is no more

- The big 4 MSOs is an antiquated concept

- Introduction of Verano creates a big 5

- But in reality there is a big 10 already: AYR, Columbia Care, Ascend Wellness, Jushi & TerrAscend

- Investors will have to adapt to these new names which will create opportunity

- Where we see value and what we like

7) Scale will be more important 

- As capital is readily available and legalization accelerates the game has changed

- Shift from pure focus on profitability to having the footprint to be a significant player 

In this episode we reflect on what we've learned in 2020, why it is important and how we plan to improve our game going into 2021. Happy new year everyone!

Discussed in this episode:

- Humility: how this year humbled us and taught us that "no one knows"

- How 2020 was a break out year for cannabis

- What would we have done differently?

- Things change quickly - how perception (and reality) shifted in 2020

- The Big 4 MSOs were the big winners of 2020; who will be the winners of tomorrow?

- How the Fed helped prevent a financial disaster and propelled the markets to record highs

- The AYR and LHS acquisition - what we think and how it went down (and why AYR/LHS could be a win-win)

- Keep refreshing your thinking - don't get stuck on old perceptions of the market (or a company)

- Back to the Future! How you can understand what will happen next

- The information advantage - the 3 tiers of cannabis investors

- Taking risk and making hay while the sun shines

- The value of IR in a company's brand to investors (eg. Trulieve)

- Winning Big, Losing Small: swing big at fat pitches

- The importance of MSOs achieving scale going forward

- A big thank you and new years message for our listeners

Happy 2021!

In this episode we are joined by a special guest and friend of ours, Alex Gastevich. Alex's family office (VGI Investments) has deep experience investing in cannabis since their first investment in GTI in 2014. He joins us to discuss how he and his family think about picking a winner in the cannabis space.

In this episode:

- How VGI first invested in the cannabis space in 2014

- How do you define a "winner"?

- The importance of long term thinking and "intangible fit" 

- Private investments in cannabis - how does decision making differ?

- Private MSO Ascend Wellness (AWH) and how we decided to invest

- Understanding the fundamentals of a limited license market to pick a winner

- How to become a better investor in this space

- Why the Verano IPO will be one of the hottest in the space and why you should pay attention

- Valuation - why it matters and how to think about it

- Trading vs Investing with WeedMaps, Verano and SOL as examples

- The importance of having an investing network and discussing opportunities from many viewpoints

Thanks to Alex for joining us and sharing some great insights, you can connect with him below:

VGI Family Office - https://www.vginvests.com/

Alex on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-gastevich-088a6043/ 

Back by popular demand we have Alan Brochstein joining us! Alan is known across the industry as "the leading cannabis analyst" and joins us today to share his insight on why he is so bullish on the future of the Cannabis industry. "The Maven" knows this industry and its players inside and out and his 420investor service (https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/) is our favourite resource for making money in cannabis investing, especially in this bull market.

In this episode we discuss:

- Post-Election thinking and the Cannabis Bull Market 

- 4 Reasons why Alan is so bullish on cannabis (the 4 legs of the stool)

- Technicals, Fundamentals, Valuation and Sentiment - which of these points to future upside?

- Names that AB has liked this year and what he likes going forward

- Why investing is "not a beauty contest" and what that means

- How to invest in cannabis if you're afraid of a market pullback

- Why Alan thinks cannabis investors shouldn't ignore Canada

- How California is turning a corner and why The Parent Company could be interesting

- IPOs & New Companies: Verano, The Parent Company, WeedMaps and more

- Shifting from the Big 4 to the Big 10-15 MSOs - what will this mean for the market?

- Revisiting the MSOS ETF and how it is a "game changer"

- AB's big prediction for 2021 and what he's the most excited about

Thank you to Alan for coming on and sharing his valuable insights.

If you enjoyed this episode and want more of Alan's insights and picks, we highly recommend you look into a subscription for 420i @ https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/ 

We also suggest you sign up for AB's free weekly newsletter @ https://www.newcannabisventures.com/subscribe/

The balance sheet might not be the most reflective of how well a company is doing. 

 Today we are joined by an incredibly special guest, Patrick Smith, a special situations analyst from Bay St.  

Patrick shares with us some great insights and tips on how to quickly analyze financial statements and why the Income Statement and Statement of Cash Flows are a better gauge of where the company is headed.  Patrick put together a comprehensive powerpoint to follow him during this episode.

Please click here for 4 Front financial statements

Please see our Google Drive here for the PowerPoint (and other episode files): 

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/180DITZc5unsNnc-beUP8eOlHH_ANPq51?usp=sharing 

Please note we recorded this episode early Tues morning and the cannabis markets has turned ugly by close Tues night.

Which is the important theme of this episode - as hype and speculation return in force to the cannabis industry investors need to be careful and be fearful when others are being greedy.

In this episode:

- What the hell is going on?

- Explaining wild price action over the last few days

- Rally of the "others" not the big 4 MSOs

- ACB as a proxy for the wildness of this market and unsustainability

- How to protect yourself while taking advantage of the "risk on" mindset

In this episode we are joined by special guest Nick Gastevich. You may have seen Nick posting online under the name CannaVestments where he regularly shares financial analysis and commentary about US Cannabis companies. 

Nick has deep insight into the large MSOs and through his family office invested in GTI and Cresco as private companies.  

In this episode we cover Curaleaf, Trulieve, GTI & Cresco's Q3 results and for each company we discuss:

1. Top Line metrics and Growth 

2. Gross Margin and adjusted EBITDA

3. Cash Flow & Capital Expenditures

4. Footprint analysis - which states are driving revenue and profitability?

5. Future growth - which states represent the most future upside?

6. Valuation - what multiple does the company trade at? Do we view it as cheap or expensive?

This is an action packed episode - many thanks to Nick for joining us and sharing his insights

Please note: we had a technical issue and one of our mics somehow had the "witness protection" filter put on. 

In this episode we discuss how cannabis investors should weigh the potential risks associated with COVID and the broader markets

- Vaccine Optimism is pushing markets higher - is too much optimism priced in?

- Vaccine is much welcome news and provides a light at the end of the tunnel 

- However many risks remain as we head into a prolonged "dark winter"

- Lack of fiscal stimulus, lack of US federal COVID response and why a delayed transition is particularly bad this year

- Risk feels mispriced - from bonds to commercial real estate this remains a real overhang

- So what? Cannabis is performing very well but is not immune to broader markets

- Lack of stimulus hurts consumers; market correction will hurt weed stocks

- How do we plan around this? What measures can we take?

- Portfolio and cash management over 2021

- Discussion of MediPharm Lab's BRUTAL Q3 and a longer term outlook

- Thinking about B2B for Village Farms and Cresco Labs

In this episode we digest the results of the US election and discuss why we are bullish on the future of US cannabis

In this episode we discuss:

- Why investors should be careful with this "sugar high" rally on Canadian LPs

- What a Biden win means for US Operators

- Why this is good for future M&A

- How cannabis will fare under a split senate or under a republican senate

- Why "more of the same" is actually a win for existing players

- Why the NASDAQ remains the holy grail and how that impacts the current players

- How The Golden Age of Investing is likely to be prolonged 

We finish off with a few listener questions from Alex, Zachary and Ben D