For 17 years, Deepak Shenoy has made annual Diwali predictions about markets, crashes, interest rates, and more. But how many were actually right? Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capitalmind to examine his prediction history from 2007 to 2024. He correctly called the 2008 crash and Trump's 2024 victory. But real estate and gold? Wrong almost every year. We break down why most predictions fail and what makes the rare successful ones different. Deepak explains the three elements of valid predictions (direction, magnitude, timeframe), why cash on sidelines signals crashes, how AI bubbles mirror 2000, and why interest rates are easy to predict but impossible to profit from. This episode breaks down crashes, bubbles, and market timing, offering honest takes that you can actually use. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more real insights on building wealth in Indian markets! Follow Capitalmind on Social Media: 📝

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction & 2024 Predictions Recap 01:00 Will There Be a Market Crash in 2025? 03:40 How AI Could Trigger the Next Crash 06:15 Why This Time Is Different from 2008 09:40 US Recession + Inflation = Stagflation? 12:10 Why Indian Markets May Keep Rising 15:00 The Real Estate Prediction Trap 20:20 Gold, Inflation & Interest Rate Outlook 28:20 Japan's 30-Year Debt Problem Explained 33:40 Can the Rupee Go Global? 40:20 Why Predictions Usually Fail 46:00 Don't Predict, Respond Instead 50:10 Deepak's 2025 Predictions Recap 58:00 Closing Thoughts

When Indian Equity Markets Go Sideways: Are Alternative Assets Worth It? Indian equities have been flat for over a year. So where should you actually put your money? Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capital Mind to break it all down. Silver just hit $50 for the first time in 45 years. Deepak explains the Hunt Brothers saga, the Thailand import drama, and why silver might only deserve 2% of your portfolio. Gold – it's outperformed. But should you buy now? Only 30% of the time has gold beaten Nifty over 10 years. We also discuss foreign stocks, why debt funds aren't just parking lots, and whether India at 21-22x earnings is still expensive. If you're confused about where to deploy capital right now, this episode is for you. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more insights on building real wealth in Indian markets! #investing #stockmarket #alternativeassets #gold #bitcoin #portfoliomanagement Follow Capitalmind on Social Media: Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/capitalmindwealth-pms/posts/?feedView=all Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/capitalmindhq?igsh=ZG9zYmVtbnBwemZr Twitter: https://x.com/capitalmind_in?s=21 Chapters:

0:00 - Intro 2:11 - Silver: What's Happening Right Now? 7:19 - Hunt Brothers: The Biggest Silver Bet Ever 11:58 - Should You Own Silver? 15:49 - Why Diamonds Are a Terrible Investment 17:38 - Gold: Why Deepak Was Wrong 21:14 - Gold as an Inflation Hedge 23:03 - When Gold Could Crash 40% 27:05 - Why We Treat Gold Differently Than Stocks 30:00 - Land Deals: How to Make 400% Returns 32:20 - Why Luxury Watches Beat Stocks 34:45 - Bitcoin: The Leverage Problem 41:32 - Bitcoin's Altcoin Curse 44:08 - Quantum Computing Could Kill Bitcoin 47:32 - How Much Bitcoin Should You Own? 50:22 - When Big Winners Become Too Big 52:01 - Foreign Stocks: The Smart Diversification 56:46 - Debt Funds: Beyond Just Parking Money 1:01:47 - Debt Market: Hidden Inefficiencies 1:04:06 - Why Debt Funds Deserve Your Money 1:06:07 - Why Bank FDs Are Ripping You Off 1:08:27 - Is India Still Too Expensive to Invest? 1:11:06 - Why 20x PE Actually Makes Sense 1:13:54 - Final Thoughts

What do DreamFolks, Dream11, JSW Steel, and Donald Trump's H-1B visa policy all have in common? Each shows how unexpected risks can reshape markets and investments overnight. Deepak Shenoy and Shray Chandra break down 5 types of risk you never saw coming from business model collapse and legal shocks to regulation, policy changes, and passive investing illusions. Chapters: 00:00 - Intro 01:53 - DreamFolks 16:19 - JSW Steel and Bhushan Steel & Power 30:41 - Dream11 & Crypto currency 41:56 - H1B Visa situation 52:10 - When money moves markets

ESOPs (Employee Stock Options) are one of the least understood parts of compensation in India. Are they wealth creators or just glorified lottery tickets? We break down everything you need to know, the trade-off between salary and ESOPs, the risks of taxation and dilution, and how exits, IPOs, and secondary markets really work. From early employee bets to Flipkart's game-changing Walmart deal, we explore stories that show both the pitfalls and life-changing rewards. If you've ever been offered ESOPs or are considering them. This podcast will help you make informed decisions about your financial future. Chapters: 00:00 - Intro 02:57 - Salary vs ESOP: the real trade-off 15:02 - ESOPs ≠ Shares? 28:35 - Should companies help you exit? 37:41 - Black-Scholes for expense 40:39 - Why not just give shares? 45:59 - Promoters/Directors rules in India 50:11 - What every employee must check in their ESOP package! 57:20 - After the payout: diversify & spend

What if money wasn't the goal… but the tool? Deepak Shenoy and Shray Chandra dive deep into how money can enable experiences, freedom, and meaning, instead of becoming an end in itself.

00:00 Intro 02:33 GDP, Good Life, and Getting Real About Returns 15:14 The Real Cost of Wealth (and the Price of a Good Life) 31:20 Planning for Joy, Not Just Returns 43:34 Compartmentalize to Live Fully 01:04:04 I have enough money, what do I do now? 01:13:23 Is winning in life all about money?

In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the SEBI allegations against global trading giant Jane Street and explore whether this is a case of shrewd arbitrage or market manipulation in India's underregulated options landscape.

In doing so, they reveal deeper structural issues. An outsized derivatives market, regulatory blind spots, tax inequities, and unchecked index power that favour global giants over domestic traders all act as leading factors to the outsized profits made by the firm. The episode ends with a call for reform: position limits, STT rationalisation, index oversight, and a level playing field to restore market integrity.

Indian retirement planning for long has been centered on your children being successful and them supporting you in your golden years. But, times are changing, with the rise of nuclear single child households, new pension options and easier access to capital markets, retirement planning also has to change.

In this conversation, Deepak and Shray discuss the various options you have to set up a retirement corpus. Be it investing in a pension scheme or managing your own investments, they provide the pros and cons as well as the steps you need to take to do so. They also suggest policies that if implemented, could make retirement planning simpler.

The earlier the better is the mantra for retirement planning and this conversation will help you get started.

00:00 - Intro 01:18 - Choosing Your Retirement: NPS or UPS? 15:36 - The real math behind the Unified Pension Scheme 22:33 - Can private sector employees build their own pension? 28:54 - Forced Savings: A behavioral take on long-term wealth 35:43 - Guarantees, gradually: structuring safer payouts as you age 39:33 - Tax efficiency and corpus optimization 44:17 - Managing Volatility: Behavior & long-term thinking 51:27 - The structural risk behind public pension guarantees 57:55 - Belief in the System: Will pensions and markets survive? 01:03:13 - Where do I even start? 01:14:52 - Why India needs its own 401(k) 01:19:36 - The roadblocks to retirement reform 01:23:44 - Will Equity Returns Moderate?

In this wide-ranging chat, Shray plays devil's advocate while Deepak unpacks why conflict often jump-starts economies, how India's defence binge could spill over into everything from lithium mining to 10-minute groceries, and why a 70-hour work-week isn't the villain Twitter thinks it is.

Returns—not patriotism—ultimately determine whether CapEx endures, a reality visible in the economics of fracking, rare-earth extraction, and the three types of "crazy" investors who fund long-shot bets: governments, bondholders, and VCs. India's manufacturing ambitions have long been stifled by outdated labour laws and missed opportunities, but we may now be staring at a rare, once-in-a-generation window of opportunity. While defence and industrial stocks might seem richly valued, there's still plenty of runway—especially if order books start to triple. That said, the journey is fraught with risks: a sluggish judicial system, bureaucratic inertia, and our national knack for fumbling promising leads. For investors, the challenge is knowing when to play defence and when to swing for the fences in a market that increasingly rewards conviction.

-- 00:00 - Intro 01:09 - Wars & the Economy 12:56 - Return on Investment - Driver of returns 25:28 - Does CapEx without justification work? 35:30 - Why don't we manufacture in India anyway? 47:33 - Labor laws - Why do they exist? 55:20 - Is the rally already priced in? 01:11:18 - What's the downside risk? 01:15:49 - Where do you invest now? 01:19:03 - Trump, 70 Hours & Self-Reliance! -- More about us: https://cm.social/pms Connect with us : https://cm.social/pms-connect Deepak's Twitter: @deepakshenoy Shray's Twitter: @shraychandra Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in

Mutual Funds are often seen as the McDonalds of the investment world. They are ubiquitous and convenient, and yet, they are seen to lack the prestige of a fine dining experience aka Private Equity et al.

In this episode, we take on the big question: Are mutual funds only for the salaried middle class, or is there a bigger story here? Deepak and Shray dive deep into the history and perception of mutual funds, from their once-exclusive status to becoming the go-to vehicle for SIPs and forced savings.

But why don't you hear family offices or the ultra-wealthy proudly boasting about their mutual fund holdings? We explore this through the lens of economic class distinctions (India A, B, and C) and unpack how perceptions of exclusivity and quality affect investment choices.

Whether you're planning for retirement, your child's education, or just wondering if your portfolio is too "plain vanilla," this is a conversation that will make you rethink how you view mutual funds.

-- 0:00 – Intro 3:29 – Choosing Exclusivity Over Simplicity 7:34 – Volatility Laundering 20:32 – Liquidity in University Endowment Funds 31:49 – Alternative Investments 38:58 – Mutual Funds vs Other Investments 44:12 – Why not hire a personal fund manager? 48:04 – Advantages and Disadvantages of Mutual Funds 1:12:26 – Use cases for Mutual Funds 1:22:41 – Who are Mutual Funds not for?

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More about us: https://cm.social/pms Connect with us : https://cm.social/pms-connect Deepak's Twitter: @deepakshenoy Shray's Twitter: @shraychandra Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in

In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the ins and outs of international investing—why it matters, when it makes sense, and who it's really for. From rupee depreciation to political and geographical risks, they explore the key reasons to diversify your portfolio beyond India's borders.

They also discuss a crucial question: At what level of capital does it become meaningful to place your money outside? The conversation weaves in perspectives from investing greats—Peter Lynch, who believed in the power of consumer insight, and Devina Mehra, whose latest book "Money Myths and Mantras" emphasizes global allocation as a must-have strategy.

With fresh data on market returns (both in INR and local currency terms), the duo breaks down how different regions have performed—why Europe and China have struggled, and how the US tech boom, largely driven by the Nasdaq, has outshone the rest. But can the US continue to dominate, especially in light of Fed Chairman Powell's recent remarks on tariffs?

They also touch upon an important side of global investing: taxation. From the complexities of capital gains to the lesser-known estate tax, and how investment vehicles like UCITS can help navigate these issues.

Tune in for a comprehensive, no-fluff guide to international investing—what works, what to watch out for, and how to do it right.

0:00 - 2:10 Introduction 2:11 - 8:27 Why should you invest abroad? 8:28 - 10:53 Economic growth ≠ Shareholder returns 10:54 - 19:35 How to select international investments? 19:36 - 27:31 Regular international investments 27:32 - 32:17 Commodity Diversification 32:18 - 40:50 Managed International Investment Solutions 40:51 - 43:37 Good time to global? 43:38 - 47:17 Domestic vs. International Brokers 47:18 - 50:34 Tax on Foreign Equity 50:35 - 54:17 Tax Collected at Source 54:18 - 56:38 U.S. Estate Taxes 56:39 - 59:50 UCITS

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More about us: https://cm.social/pms

Connect with us : https://cm.social/pms-connect

Deepak's Twitter: @deepakshenoy

Shray's Twitter: @shraychandra

Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in