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0:00 Brian's 'Stache
0:40 Another Farm Bailout
7:35 Argentina Update
9:36 Corteva Split
11:34 Soybean/Corn Rally
15:54 Yield Estimates
17:17 Drought Update

💰 Trump’s New Farmer Aid Plan
President Trump is weighing a $10–$14 billion bailout for US farmers, likely funded by tariff revenues. Payments could start in the coming months, with soybean producers as the main beneficiaries since they’re expected to lose about $100 per acre this year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says details may be announced as soon as Tuesday. For comparison, the 2018–2020 MFP program totaled $23 billion, with soybeans seeing the largest support ($1.65–$2.05/bu). Rough math suggests something around $10 billion could be realistic this time.

🌍 US–China Soybean Trade & Argentina Tensions
Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping later this month to push for more Chinese soybean purchases. Any deal could affect the size of the aid program. Meanwhile, the US confirmed support for Argentina via a $20 billion swap line, not direct investment. Farmers are frustrated, as Argentina has recently undercut the US with large soybean sales to China.

🌱 Corteva Breakup News
Corteva will split into two separate companies:
Seed unit → expanding beyond corn and soybeans into cotton and wheat.
Pesticide unit → focusing on cost-cutting as Chinese generics gain ground.
The move is planned for the second half of next year, but shares are already down 15% since September.

📈 Soybean Futures Rally
Soybean futures gained for the second straight day, with the Nov25 contract up nearly 11 cents Thursday, adding to Wednesday’s rally. Optimism is tied directly to Trump’s announcement about the Xi meeting.

🌽 Crop Outlook Cuts
S&P Global cut its forecasts:
Corn yield → 185.5 bpa (down from 189.1)
Corn production → 16.71 bil bu (vs. 16.77)
Soybean yield → 53 bpa (vs. 53.8)
Soybean production → 4.26 bil bu (vs. 4.31)

🔥 USDA Drought Monitor Update
Improved moisture helped Ohio, Kentucky, and parts of Indiana, but conditions worsened in Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa.
Current US drought coverage:
Corn → 28%
Soybeans → 37%
Winter Wheat → 45%
Spring Wheat → 13%
Cattle → 24%

👉 Stay tuned—the coming days could bring big announcements on farm aid and trade. Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments so we can talk through it together.