Politics Central

Charles Croucher: US preparing for mid term elections


Listen Later

LISTEN TO ABC AUSTRALIA'S CHARLES CROUCHER TALK WITH THE WEEKEND COLLECTIVE ABOVE
More than 30 million Americans have cast early ballots ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections, eclipsing the 2014 early totals nationally and suggesting a high overall turnout for contests that could define the final two years of President Donald Trump's term.
At least 28 states have surpassed their 2014 early votes. And perhaps even more indicative of the unusual enthusiasm this midterm cycle, some states are approaching their early turnout from the 2016 presidential election.
Here's a look at some highlights:
MASSIVE TURNOUT
The 30.6 million ballots includes data from 48 states, with several of those still collecting absentee ballots and welcoming in-person early voters. The total early vote in 2014 was 28.3 million in an election where more than 83 million Americans voted. That was a low turnout (about 36 percent) even by usual standards of a midterm, when there's an expected drop off from presidential elections.
Forecasters aren't predicting that overall turnout this year will hit 2016 levels (137.5 million; more than 60 percent of the electorate), but Democratic and Republican analysts, along with independent political scientists, say turnout could approach 50 percent, levels not seen for a midterm since the turbulent 1960s.
BOOMS IN STATES NOT USED TO EXCITING MIDTERMS
It's one thing to see Virginia more than doubling its 2014 early turnout. Voters there showed their intensity last year in their governor's race, with record absentee ballot requests and returns and a solid turnout for both parties.
But then there's Tennessee. The state has settled firmly into Republican-dominated territory. In 2014, there wasn't a single statewide race that received national attention or a truly competitive House election.
But with an open Senate seat thanks to the retirement of Republican Bob Corker, voters are more than eager this year. Through Thursday, early turnout was 217 percent of what it was in 2014. It's even approaching early turnout from 2016, at 80 percent of that presidential-year mark.
Several other states with competitive Senate or governor's races — Texas, Nevada, Georgia, among others — are nearing double the 2014 early totals.
DEMOCRATS EDGING REPUBLICANS NATIONALLY
In states that require party registration, Democrats have cast 41 percent of the early ballots, compared to 36 percent for Republicans. Party strategists on both sides say they are far exceeding their usual numbers in key locales — urban strongholds for Democrats and more rural counties for Republicans.
A word of caution from prognosticators: The party analysis isn't always an indicator of final outcomes. There are crossover voters, even in this hyperpartisan era. And there are independents and third-party voters, as well. For the record, those latter groups account for about 23 percent of the ballots in party registration states.
For the scorekeepers, though, Virginia, among the states that doesn't have party registration, is replicating its 2017 voting boom — and Democrats swept the top offices last year even amid strong GOP turnout.
YOUNG VOTERS IN FLORIDA
Trends in Florida's early voting suggest a surge in young voters, a group that historically has low turnout in midterm cycles.
Of the 124,000 Floridians aged 18 to 29 who had voted in person at early polling stations as of Thursday, nearly a third did not vote in the presidential election in 2016, according to analysis by University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith. About half of those new voters were newly registered.  
"There are newly energized voters who sat out in 2016, or have registered since then, who are turning out. There's no question about that," Smith said.  
In contrast, for people 65 and older who had voted early and in person, about 7 percent didn't vote in 2016. 
NEW VOTERS IN...
...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

Politics CentralBy Newstalk ZB


More shows like Politics Central

View all
Morning Report by RNZ

Morning Report

22 Listeners

Mediawatch by RNZ

Mediawatch

11 Listeners

Focus on Politics by RNZ

Focus on Politics

11 Listeners

Nine To Noon Politics by RNZ

Nine To Noon Politics

3 Listeners

Gone By Lunchtime by The Spinoff

Gone By Lunchtime

22 Listeners

Saturday Morning with Jack Tame by Newstalk ZB

Saturday Morning with Jack Tame

1 Listeners

The Mike Hosking Breakfast by Newstalk ZB

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

52 Listeners

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive by Newstalk ZB

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

13 Listeners

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge by Newstalk ZB

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

4 Listeners

Weekend Sport with Jason Pine by Newstalk ZB

Weekend Sport with Jason Pine

4 Listeners

The Weekend Collective by Newstalk ZB

The Weekend Collective

1 Listeners

The Front Page by NZ Herald

The Front Page

15 Listeners

Smart Money by Newstalk ZB

Smart Money

1 Listeners

The Detail by RNZ

The Detail

55 Listeners

Matt Heath & Tyler Adams Afternoons by Newstalk ZB

Matt Heath & Tyler Adams Afternoons

1 Listeners

The OneRoof Radio Show by Newstalk ZB

The OneRoof Radio Show

5 Listeners

A Captain's Cup by Radio Sport

A Captain's Cup

1 Listeners

Newstalk ZB ANZAC Centenary Tribute by Newstalk ZB

Newstalk ZB ANZAC Centenary Tribute

0 Listeners

Election 2023: The Front Bench by Newstalk ZB

Election 2023: The Front Bench

0 Listeners

On The Front Foot by Newstalk ZB

On The Front Foot

4 Listeners

Holiday Breakfast by Newstalk ZB

Holiday Breakfast

0 Listeners

The Superior Sailor Series by Newstalk ZB

The Superior Sailor Series

0 Listeners

When the Facts Change by The Spinoff

When the Facts Change

9 Listeners

Rugby Direct by Newstalk ZB

Rugby Direct

7 Listeners

The Birmingham Bulletin by Newstalk ZB

The Birmingham Bulletin

0 Listeners

On the Tiles by NZME

On the Tiles

0 Listeners

Tova by Stuff Audio

Tova

1 Listeners

The Working Group - NZ’s Best Weekly Political Podcast by The Working Group

The Working Group - NZ’s Best Weekly Political Podcast

2 Listeners

Raw Politics by newsroom.co.nz

Raw Politics

2 Listeners

The Big League Podcast by Newstalk ZB

The Big League Podcast

3 Listeners

All Sport Breakfast Canterbury by NewstalkZB

All Sport Breakfast Canterbury

0 Listeners

Election 2023: Behind the List with Barry Soper by Newstalk ZB

Election 2023: Behind the List with Barry Soper

0 Listeners

News Fix by Newstalk ZB

News Fix

0 Listeners

Football Fever by Newstalk ZB

Football Fever

0 Listeners

Sports Fix by Newstalk ZB

Sports Fix

1 Listeners