Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Garrison Lovely, journalist and author of Obsolete: The AI Industry's Trillion-Dollar Race to Replace Us and How to Stop It, to map the three-sided debate over AI risk and why the arguments keep talking past each other. 

They then turn to what cheap cognition does to surveillance that already exists: FinCEN receives roughly 4 million suspicious activity reports a year and reads almost none of them, ICE agents run about a million queries against that database annually, and every podcast ever recorded is now transcribable for approximately nothing. The conversation covers capabilities denialism, ablated open-weights models, the fraud supply chain, and why AI is also unusually good at writing the Regulation E letter that gets your bank to fix your problem.

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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/cheap-cognition-and-the-end-of-practical-obscurity-with-garrison-lovely/

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Links:

• Obsolete: The AI Industry’s Trillion Dollar Race to Replace Us―and How to Stop It: https://www.amazon.com/Obsolete-Power-Profit-Machine-Superintelligence/dp/1682196305 

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Timestamps:
(00:00) Preview
(00:43) Intro
(01:51) The three-sided debate over AI risk
(05:32) Power, politics, and the tech backlash
(09:49) Capabilities denialism and AI tells
(14:54) The obsoleting machine
(17:09) The Turing test is dead
(18:56) Languages for free, then software engineering
(22:37) Sponsors: Mercury | MongoDB
(25:09) How high up the stack do the models decide?
(29:11) Surveillance and cheap cognition
(32:38) Podcasts, FinCEN, and the end of practical obscurity
(38:35) Section 702 and the data broker loophole
(39:35) Sponsor: Chainguard
(40:55) Section 702 and the data broker loophole (cont’d)
(47:23) Institutional friction and a million ICE queries
(53:29) Security through obscurity no longer works
(54:54) Scams, fraud, and ablated models
(1:00:20) Personal utility versus societal backlash
(1:02:16) AI as a tool for redress
(1:06:34) State capacity and regulating what you understand
(1:12:37) Tobacco, nuclear, and AlphaFold: strangle it or steer it
(1:18:37) Where to find Garrison and the book
(1:20:32) Wrap