Grain Markets and Other Stuff

China Drone Ban: Big Deal for Ag? + Soybean Purchase Update


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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🚁 Drone Industry Shock
A new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry.
On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market.
The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future.
U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left.

🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition)
USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday.
Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior week
China was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total sales
Corn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmt
Japan was the largest buyer
Wheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchases
Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt.
USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th.

🌱 Grain Market Update
Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday.
The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop.
While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside.


🇺🇸 U.S. Economy Update
The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter.
GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending.
Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth.

🥇 Precious Metals Explosion
Precious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday.
Silver surged past $70/oz
Gold climbed above $4,490/oz
Platinum and palladium also moved sharply higher
The rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.

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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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