- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com
- How Much Soybean Demand will the RVO Create
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc
Ag Markets with Greg Johnson
The recent USDA prospective plantings and grain stocks reports were largely neutral for corn and slightly friendly for soybeans. Currently, the market is being driven by geopolitical headlines, with money flowing out of commodities and into equities due to expectations that Middle East tensions may ease. Significant damage to Middle Eastern infrastructure for crude oil and natural gas, a key fertilizer input, will take years to repair. This damage is expected to keep transportation and input costs elevated, contributing to inflation and likely delaying any interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Because planted acreage is high enough to meet demand under normal yield conditions, future market movement will heavily depend on actual yields and the actions of investment funds, which are currently holding near-record long positions. Farmers are advised to consider pricing new crop soybeans in the mid-$11 range.
How Much Soybean Demand will the RVO Create | farmdoc
The EPA recently announced new Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) that will increase biomass-based diesel mandates by roughly 60% for 2026 and 2027. Meeting these new mandates will require between 50 and 60 billion pounds of feedstock, consuming approximately half of the world's total supply of fats and oils. This massive increase in domestic demand for soybean oil is expected to push US crush capacity to its absolute limit. Consequently, the US soybean market is pivoting away from exports, which are facing stiff competition from cheaper Brazilian supplies, toward domestic consumption. This transition is highly bullish for domestic pricing, supporting the farmdoc team's projection of an $11 season average cash price.
Ag Weather with Drew Lerner
In Brazil, the safrinha, or second crop corn, in the north is well-established but will rely heavily on existing soil moisture as the monsoonal rains wind down. Southern safrinha areas are currently dry but still have opportunities to catch rain from passing frontal systems. Meanwhile, in Argentina, a shift in weather patterns has brought heavy rain to previously dry areas. Parts of the country, particularly central Buenos Aires, are now too wet, stalling the sunseed harvest and creating potential quality issues. In the United States, the lower Midwest and northern Delta are expecting multiple waves of significant rain and cooler temperatures, which will likely delay early spring fieldwork. Conversely, dryland crop areas from Texas to Nebraska will see a break from extreme heat but are forecast to remain critically dry for at least another week to 10 days.