The Final Bell

The market feels the tension of election season, with much of the trade remaining quiet as it watches for signals. While crude oil has seen some action, grains are capturing attention, potentially setting the stage for tomorrow’s market shifts. With key reports like the WASDE and updates from the Federal Reserve on the horizon, traders are also monitoring developments in China and assessing the latest progress out of South America. In the livestock sector, fat cattle movement continues to trend, though technical uncertainties in live cattle keep market watchers cautious.

The main highlight this week has been export activity, especially with Mexico's demand for corn. On Friday, they purchased 716 million tons of old-crop (OC) corn from the U.S., underscoring their ongoing need for future imports.

Drought remains a concern in several regions, though there are signs of potential replenishment in some areas.

Fall basis prices are also influencing decisions as we move into the November 1 grain marketing window, which is an important date for managing grain contracts and forecasting the market's direction.

As we head into the end of the month, markets are keeping an eye on several key developments, starting with election prep in the U.S., which could bring more volatility across agricultural and financial markets. A potential divergence in the soybean complex is also taking shape; factors like South American weather and Chinese demand may pull soybean oil and meal prices in different directions, creating varied impacts within the broader soybean market.

Meanwhile, cattle contracts are seeing intense trading activity, with "fireworks" as traders position themselves ahead of the month's close. The cattle market has been dynamic, with price fluctuations driven by concerns over cattle supplies, packer demand, and shifting trade expectations

The wheat market is facing some unique pressures as Russia's export taxes and variable weather continue to impact trade flows. In Brazil, weather remains a central focus as growers look for favorable conditions to support crop progress. Outside markets, including energy, are adding another layer of volatility, especially with ongoing global shifts in supply and demand. With elections around the corner, political uncertainty is weighing on market sentiment. Meanwhile, in the livestock sector, pork prices are being closely watched, with recent fluctuations adding to the complexity of market planning.

Jeff Peterson of Heartland Farm Partners recaps the factors that shaped today's market activity.

Corn closed 1 to 4 cents lower.

Soybeans closed 10 to 13 cents lower.

Wheat closed mostly 10 cents lower.

All three livestock complexes closed higher.

- Why do you think corn and soybeans are starting the week of weaker?

- Are the funds playing much of a role in the corn and soybean markets at this time?

- Do you think we will continue to see the strong corn and soybean export sales like we had last week?

- How were export inspections this morning?

- What is the latest on the Mississippi river level?

- What would it take to get corn and soybean prices to move higher from here?

- How do you think corn and soybean future’s spread trade from here?

- What do you think will happen to corn and soybean basis levels?

Export sales have been strong this week for both corn and soybeans, providing some support to the market. All eyes are on the upcoming Chinese stimulus meeting in early November, which could influence demand and pricing. However, uncertainty remains regarding South American crop outcomes, as well as the impact of dry conditions in the U.S.—though it may still be too early to raise alarms on that front. Politics continue to weigh on the ag sector, while depressed soybean prices add additional pressure. Meanwhile, balance sheets for corn and beans are increasing, adding further complexity to market dynamics.

Export sales are in focus, while election jitters are starting to impact market sentiment. Soybeans faced some pressure, with key factors dragging the market down. There's still a question of what's not supporting broader trade action. Meanwhile, anticipation builds for tomorrow’s Cattle on Feed report, and winter wheat is being eyed for pasture use as ranchers look for options in the face of evolving market conditions.

The basis continues to firm up as farm selling picks up momentum, contributing to market activity. Reinflation is becoming a significant part of the equation, influencing various sectors. In Brazil, much-needed rain is finally arriving, which is beneficial for crops. Export demand remains steady, but political uncertainties are adding a layer of complexity to the market. Dryness in key wheat-growing regions of Russia is causing concern, while the cattle market experienced a sell-off, leading to added pressure on producers.

The market saw positive action in both corn and beans, with corn pushing higher on the back of large option spreads. Export demand for grains remains strong, helping to support the upward momentum. However, winter wheat planting is facing some delays, causing concern in the wheat market. Meanwhile, cattle traders are eagerly awaiting the Cattle on Feed (COF) report, which could further influence market direction. The cattle market has shown higher movement, bolstered by commercial buying activity, but the industry is cautious, waiting for more data before making bigger moves.

The corn and soybean markets are currently signaling a mixed story, with export levels remaining a key focus, particularly as concerns grow around the low Mississippi River levels impacting grain shipments. Funds have had a noticeable effect on market volatility, influencing price movement, especially in soybeans. Exports for both corn and soybeans are progressing but face challenges from logistical issues. In South America, weather patterns and planting progress will be closely watched, with favorable conditions potentially altering global supply expectations. Technically, the corn market shows some weakness, while soybeans present a more stable outlook. This may be an ideal time to evaluate and potentially adjust marketing plans, particularly with technical factors and global weather conditions playing a significant role in upcoming price movement.