The Final Bell

 Russia Ukraine tension

 Trump policy on trade

 New lows in soybeans

 South American growing

 China, hogs & the funds

 Live cattle struggled while feeders saw a positive trade

 Russia Ukraine tension

 China agreement with Brazil

 South American growing

 Supply demand fundamentals

 FEDS fewer rate cuts?

 Retail data for the month of October

 Russia Ukraine tension

 Weekend headlines pulling attention

 Geo politics vs. trade issues

 Does the trade care?

 South American progress

 Dollar trade

 Seasonality’s of the markets

 South America weather

 New administration

 Strong U.S. dollar

 Russia Ukraine situation geo political

 Cattle hold onto some positives

The recovery in the corn, soybean, and wheat markets today appears to be driven by several factors, including improved export activity and some technical buying. Market sentiment may also be influenced by shifts in global weather patterns, particularly in South America, and by updates on U.S. harvest progress.

Key Points:

NOPA Crush Numbers: The latest crush report showed strong soybean processing, indicating healthy domestic demand for soy products. This could bolster market confidence in soybean fundamentals.

Corn and Soybean Export Demand: Export sales for corn and soybeans have been robust, with particular interest from key markets like Mexico and China. These positive signals may encourage traders to adjust their outlooks. As always, reassess your marketing plans based on export trends and price opportunities.

Corn Demand for Ethanol: Ethanol demand remains steady, with production maintaining levels that support corn prices. However, fluctuating crude oil prices can influence ethanol profitability, which might impact future demand for corn.

Mississippi River Levels: Water levels have seen slight improvements in some areas due to recent rains but remain a concern for grain transportation. This continues to add logistical challenges, which may pressure basis levels.

The markets remain on edge with election expectations shaping the forward outlook. Weak prices continue to dominate conversations as the "elephant in the room," causing concerns across the agricultural sector. In the cattle market, midday trading saw a noticeable breakdown, signaling cautious sentiment. Meanwhile, the hog market faced its own pressures, with shifts leaving traders analyzing the potential causes and broader implications for livestock markets overall.

The market is adjusting to a complex mix of factors this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been a focal point, adding to broader global expectations across markets. Flash sales activity remains a driving factor, with an eye on Brazilian growing conditions, which have been generally favorable. Additionally, the impact of elections continues to weigh on traders' minds, creating a level of uncertainty in pricing movements. For cattle, heavy weights and slower cash sales are contributing to cautious sentiment as the industry assesses near-term demand and pricing prospects.

The grain markets are watching several pivotal factors this week, with money management strategies potentially being the biggest influence. Last week, China purchased about half of its grain needs from the U.S., underscoring the ongoing influence of the Chinese economy on commodity trade. South American weather is improving, leading to favorable growing conditions that may support their yields and impact global grain supply.

In livestock, both live and feeder cattle have seen interest from large buyers, helping support prices in recent days. However, questions remain about the durability of this rebound; a shift in fundamentals could put pressure on prices if it were to turn negative. The cattle market’s next steps will largely depend on whether this momentum can hold.

The grain markets started the week off sluggishly after an overbought Friday, leaving traders to wonder if this trend will spill over. The dollar strengthened significantly, adding further pressure to commodity prices. Meanwhile, wheat remains attractively priced, but political discussions and uncertainty continue to weigh on market sentiment. In the soybean complex, soyoil movements and political factors play significant roles, while traders may need to pause to reevaluate before making further moves.

The latest WASDE report brought some mixed reactions, with overall production numbers closely aligning with expectations but a few regional surprises in state-level yields. The corn balance sheet reflected steady demand but highlighted some adjustments in exports and feed usage, keeping stocks relatively tight. Soybean numbers appeared slightly more bullish, with yields revised in key states, reinforcing a tighter supply outlook. The market response was interesting—corn remained stable, while soybeans saw an uptick, possibly fueled by traders' positioning ahead of global demand cues. Technically, both corn and soybean markets show resilience, with soybeans holding key support levels and corn testing resistance, suggesting some upward potential in the short term if demand holds strong.