Coffee & Cap Rates: Commercial Real Estate Podcast

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors; Michael A. Tortorici, Founding Partner; Christoffer Brodhead, Senior Director; and Howard Raber, Director, take a deep dive into Manhattan’s investment sales market on this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates. They discussed trends in Ariel Property Advisors’ Manhattan 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report and what to expect in 2026.

Highlights from the podcast include:

• Manhattan’s transactional dollar volume reached $22.77 billion in 2025, signaling strong investor confidence and positive growth trends across development, multifamily and office sectors.
• Driven by limited inventory and a high-performing condo market, development site sales totaled nearly $4 billion with pricing jumping 11% to $468 per buildable square foot—the highest level recorded since 2021.
• Accounting for 50% of Manhattan’s total dollar volume ($11.3 billion), the office market was fueled by high-value Class A transactions and a growing trend of Class B and C assets being repositioned for residential or boutique office use.
• Investors showed a clear preference for free market multifamily properties, which represented 84% of total multifamily dollar volume, as investors looked to capitalize on free market assets currently trading 18% below their 2017 peaks.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Sean R. Kelly, Esq., Partner, and Stephen Vorvolakos, Director, discuss trends in Brooklyn’s commercial real estate market and the findings of Ariel Property Advisors’ Brooklyn 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

Highlights from the report include:

• Brooklyn closed 2025 with $6.66 billion in total commercial real estate sales across 951 transactions, reflecting an 8% decline in dollar volume and 2% increase in transactions compared to 2024.
• The development market rallied in 2025 with 172 transactions totaling $1.8 billion, an increase of 25% and 41%, respectively, compared to 2024.
• Multifamily dollar volume dipped 3% year over year to $3.47 billion while transactions rose 7% to 582.
• Brooklyn retail saw 76 transactions totaling $523 million, representing decreases of 10% and 17%, respectively, compared to 2024. Boroughwide, transaction activity was largely driven by smaller, mom-and-pop retail sales.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Swerdlow, Senior Director in the Capital Services Group, discuss New York City’s multifamily market and the findings of Ariel Property Advisors’ Multifamily Year In Review New York City 2025.

Highlights include:

• Total dollar volume was relatively unchanged year-over-year, totaling $8.91 billion in 2025 compared to $9.1 billion in 2024.
• Free market buildings led multifamily sales citywide, accounting for 66% of dollar volume and 48% of transactions. Rent stabilized assets followed in deal frequency (47%) but trailed in value (20%), while affordable housing rounded out the market with 13% of the volume and 6% of transactions.
• Capital rewarded free-market housing with rising valuations, affordable housing remained active through strong public-private alignment and rent-stabilized assets traded at steep discounts as NOI eroded under policy and cost pressures.
• The rent-stabilized sector continued to grapple with regulations, rising costs and mortgage maturities at higher rates. 
• Many banks are focusing on free market transactions, office transactions, retail transactions, and assets that aren’t regulated.
• The multifamily market will see increased liquidity in 2026 as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will each have $88 billion to lend for a total of $176 billion.

To celebrate 15 years of Ariel Property Advisors, President & Founder Shimon Shkury sits down with Roxanne Donovan, President of Great Ink, for an exclusive conversation about the firm’s journey in New York City’s commercial real estate market.

From its founding in 2011 to growing into a 65-person team united by shared values and collaboration, Ariel has evaluated, sold, and financed billions of dollars of real estate in NYC while arranging financing for clients nationwide.

Listen to the episode to hear reflections on the past 15 years, the story of Ariel’s growth, its core values, the advisory-first approach, and more!

For more information about Ariel’s accomplishments, read the 2025 Annual Report.

 Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, provides an in-depth overview of New York City’s office, development, and multifamily markets. This presentation, “Behind the Sales: What’s Fueling Investment in NYC Real Estate?”, was delivered at the NYC Real Estate Expo on October 28, 2025, at the New York Marriott Marquis. 

Listen to the presentation on this podcast and click here to access the slides.

Ariel Property Advisors, together with Cozen O'Connor, recently hosted State of the Brooklyn Real Estate Market: What’s Ahead?—an exclusive commercial real estate trends conference and networking breakfast held on November 13. This discussion explored how Brooklyn’s CRE market is evolving and the forces shaping the borough’s future.

The event opened with remarks from Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, followed by a panel moderated by Sean R. Kelly, Esq., Partner at Ariel, and Kenneth K. Fisher, Esq., Member at Cozen O’Connor.

The expert panel featured:

• Alyssa Zahler, Managing Director of Commercial Leasing, Two Trees Management Co.
• Sergey Rybak, Principal & Founder, Rybak Development
• Ian Ross, Managing Partner & Founder, SomeraRoad
• Leon Goldenberg, CEO, Goldmont Realty

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Ben Schlegel, Director in the Capital Services Group, discuss New York City’s multifamily market and the findings of Ariel Property Advisors’ Q3 2025 Multifamily Quarter in Review New York City.

Highlights include:

• New York City’s multifamily market gained momentum in the third quarter, rising to $2.55 billion in sales, up 14% quarter-over-quarter and 17% year-over-year.
• Free-market assets are attracting significant investor interest due to strong fundamentals like growing rents and less regulation compared to rent-stabilized buildings.
• Nearly half of the dollar volume in the third quarter was in Manhattan where sales were dominated by well-capitalized investors targeting high-value free-market multifamily assets.
• There has been a significant increase in liquidity in the market over the last 6 to 12 months, with more banks, private lenders and debt funds entering the New York market.
•  Lenders are keenly interested in Manhattan, especially for office-to-residential conversions, due to low vacancy rates and strong demand dynamics.
• The team is expecting a strong close to the year with a flurry of transactions, primarily driven by free-market multifamily properties, supported by softening interest rates

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and his guests Barbara Blair, President of the Garment District Alliance, and Howard Raber, a Director in Investment Sales at Ariel, unpack the recently approved Midtown South Mixed-Use (MSMX) Plan, which replaces outdated manufacturing zoning with residential use. The Midtown South rezoning spans 42 blocks across four distinct quadrants—roughly between 23rd and 41st Streets and Fifth and Eighth Avenues—and is expected to create nearly 10,000 new homes, of which close to 3,000 will be permanently affordable.

Raber said that owners and developers are tremendously optimistic about the Midtown South rezoning plan because it will allow both office-to-residential conversions and ground-up residential developments. Blair noted that adding housing to the Garment District, when combined with the 54 existing hotels, will create a 24/7 live/work environment that will bring in better amenities and retail to the neighborhood.

Join Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Partner Sean R. Kelly, Esq., and Director Stephen Vorvolakos, for an in-depth discussion of the state of Brooklyn's commercial real estate market. They analyze the market's robust performance, including $3.25 billion in total investment sales in 1H 2025, trends shaping investment strategies across the borough and other key findings from Ariel’s Brooklyn 2025 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

Highlights include:

• In the first half of 2025, Brooklyn saw 282 multifamily transactions, totaling over $2 billion, representing a 10% and 14% increase respectively over the first half of 2024.
• Of the multifamily transactions, 51.45% were for buildings with fewer than six units, underscoring a consistent post-HSTPA (Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act of 2019) investment strategy of prioritizing smaller, tax class protected assets that primarily offer free-market, value-add opportunities, largely unburdened by rent stabilization regulations.
• Brooklyn’s development market was strong in the first half of 2025, with 68 transactions totaling $610 million and pricing that exceeded $300/BSF for the first time.
• City and state housing policies and rezonings, like in Gowanus and Atlantic Avenue, have created incentives for developers.
• Brooklyn saw a resurgence in the retail market, particularly in Williamsburg. Investments from entities like Acadia Realty and Empire State Realty Trust represent the most significant institutional investments in the Brooklyn retail market since before COVID.

In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses Ariel’s Bronx 2025 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report with the Bronx market experts Senior Director Jason Gold and Director Daniel Mahfar.

Key findings include:

• The Bronx investment sales market experienced a significant recovery in the first half of 2025 with dollar volume rising to $1.07 billion and transactions to 126, year-over-year increases of 106% and 18%, respectively.
• Multifamily sales totaled $565 million across 60 transactions in 1H 2025, driven by investors seeking low-basis, high-cash-flow opportunities in rent-stabilized assets.
• The most significant rent stabilized transaction was the sale of Related Companies’ 36-
  building, 2,021-unit Bronx portfolio to PH Realty Capital LLC for $189 million, discounted from $253 million paid by Related in 2014.
• Dollar volume in the development market was up 50% year-over-year, as developers became more comfortable with the UAP City of Yes initiative and 485-x tax abatement to underwrite larger projects.

For a deeper dive, read the full report: Bronx 2025 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.