Coffee & Cap Rates: Commercial Real Estate Podcast

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Mike Tortorici, Founding Partner, Chris Brodhead, Senior Director, and Howard Raber, Director, unpack the findings of Ariel's Manhattan 2025 Mid- Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report. They discussed Manhattan's strong real estate performance in the first half of the year, with nearly $7 billion in dollar volume driven by the sale of exceptional Class A office, free market buildings, development sites and retail.

Key Manhattan report highlights include:

• Investors are paying top dollar for Class A office assets because high quality tenants are seeking buildings with amenities in great locations.
• The recently approved Midtown South rezoning could revitalize Class B and C office stock in the area due to the potential for office-to-residential conversions.
• The development market saw a significant upswing with the $/BSF reaching $488 in the first half of the year, a 15% improvement over the 2024 and the highest level since 2021.
• Strong rental fundamentals and the below-peak basis are attracting investors to free market buildings, which saw the average $/SF at just under $800, up 4% year-over-year but 27% lower than peak values.

In this episode, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, reviews the latest trends in New York City’s multifamily market with Victor Sozio, Ariel Founding Partner, and Matthew Dzbanek, Senior Director in Capital Services. They discuss financing options and highlight findings from Ariel’s Q2 2025 Multifamily Quarter in Review New York City.

Key takeaways include:

•  Dollar volume rose to $2.3 billion in Q2 2025, up 11% from Q1 2025, while transactions fell 3% over the period to 293.
• Over 70% of the dollar volume and over 50% of the transactions were concentrated in affordable and rent stabilized assets.
• Related Companies sold a 36-building rent stabilized portfolio in the Bronx to PH Realty Capital LLC for $189 million, discounted from the $253 million Related paid for the same properties in 2014.
• Ariel arranged the sale of Ocean Park Apartments, a 602-unit affordable housing building in Far Rockaway to Tredway for $88 million.
• The bid/ask spread is tightening for rent stabilized assets because seller motivation has increased in recent quarters.
• Free market properties have started to increase in value but are still below peak.
• Financing for multifamily is getting more attractive.

Ariel Property Advisors hosted its summer Coffee and Cap Rates event on July 30th, sharing the latest trends in New York City’s investment sales market.

Over 250 NYC real estate professionals gathered for this live networking breakfast at TD Bank’s conference center at One Vanderbilt. The theme of the event was “Investing Through Change.”

Ralph Bumbaca, Regional President – Metro New York for TD Bank, moderated the panel of industry experts: Meredith Marshall, Co-Founder & Managing Partner at BRP Companies; Justin Pelsinger, Chief Operating Officer at Charney Companies; Jesse Hutcher, Managing Partner & Chief Investment Officer at Derby Copeland Capital; and Tom Ortinau, Head of Acquisitions at GFP Real Estate.

For more details on the event and to access our research reports, visit arielpa.nyc.

Ariel Property Advisors hosted its summer Coffee and Cap Rates event on July 30th, sharing the latest trends in New York City’s investment sales market.

Over 250 NYC real estate professionals gathered for this live networking breakfast at TD Bank’s conference center at One Vanderbilt. The theme of the event was “Investing Through Change.”

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, opened the event with a comprehensive overview of New York City’s investment sales market and highlighted key insights from the firm’s recently published mid-year research reports.

For more details on the event and to access our research reports, visit arielpa.nyc.

In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and Ariel Partner, Sean R. Kelly, Esq., interview Justin Pelsinger, COO of Charney Companies, who will be one of the panelists at Ariel’s next Coffee & Cap Rates event 8:30-11 am on Wednesday, July 30. 

Pelsinger discussed how and why his firm became a pioneer developer in Gowanus and the recent acquisition by Charney and Tavros Capital of a vested 421-a site at 175 Third Street where the developers are planning 1,000 residences across approximately 1 million square feet. The project will be the fourth building in their Gowanus Wharf campus. When completed, Charney and Tavros will have developed and will own over 2 million square feet and 2,200 residences in Gowanus, making them the largest owner in the neighborhood. 

Pelsinger also discussed New York State’s new Housing Policy, which was approved last year, the old 421a tax abatement program versus the new 485x program, and how the 467-m tax incentive is encouraging office to residential conversions. 

In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, explores key trends in the Bronx commercial real estate market with Senior Director Jason Gold and Director Daniel Mahfar. According to Ariel’s Bronx 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report, investment sales in the borough declined 33% to $1.23 billion, while transactions held steady at 220.

Despite the overall slowdown, development sales surged 39% to $363.1 million across 59 transactions, fueled by the extension of 421a, the introduction of 485x, and the Bronx Metro-North Station Area Plan, which rezoned a 46-block area around four future stations. Development pricing rose 9% to $107/BSF and new building filings jumped 112% year-over-year in Q3 2024. 

Meanwhile, multifamily sales struggled, falling 59% to $457.9 million, even as transactions rose 10% to 90. High interest rates and the Bronx’s heavily regulated multifamily market contributed to the decline.

For more insights, check out Ariel’s Bronx 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses Ariel’s Brooklyn 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report with Brooklyn experts Partner Sean R. Kelly, Esq., and Director Stephen Vorvolakos. Overall, the dollar volume of investment sales in Brooklyn rose to $7.15 billion in 2024, a 37% increase compared to 2023, and transactions increased 5% to 890 year-over-year. 

Mr. Vorvolakos said nearly 50% of the dollar volume in Brooklyn last year was in the multifamily sector, which totaled $3.5 billion, a 59% increase from 2023. He noted that investors last year shied away from rent stabilized assets but were attracted to smaller tax-class protected multifamily properties that were fully free market. Also, brick and mortar retail came back in a big way with $641.5 million in sales including Empire State Realty Trust’s acquisition of the L3 Capital Commercial Portfolio in Williamsburg for $143 million, or $2,050/SF. Mr. Kelly noted that development sales increased 10% to $1.33 billion. After the new Housing Policy approved last year introduced the 485x tax abatement, developers returned to the market making bids and chasing assets. 

Finally, industrial increased 59% to $1.1 billion, as last mile logistics remained a driving force in that market. More information is available in Ariel’s Brooklyn 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, interviews Ariel’s Manhattan experts Michael Tortorici, Founding Partner; Chris Brodhead, Senior Director, and Howard Raber, Director, about the Manhattan market in 2024.

According to Ariel Property Advisors’ Manhattan 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report, investment sales in Manhattan rose to $15.75 billion across 378 transactions, a 38% and 22% increase, respectively, compared to 2023. The office market rebounded, recording $5.1 billion in sales, a 74% year-over-year increase. Of the 55 office transactions, five were for Class A office buildings with the remainder for Class B and C properties. Multifamily sales rose 11% from 2023 to $3.44 billion in 2024, and transactions increased slightly to 182. Average pricing for multifamily properties dropped to $679/SF in 2024, while average cap rates increased from 5.24% to 6.23%. The report showed the most robust dollar and transaction volume since 2019. Development sales totaled $3.2 billion in 2024, a 121% increase from 2023, and transactions totaled 60, an 82% increase over this period. New City and State housing policies encouraged office to residential conversions, which accounted for approximately $2.3 billion of the development sales in 2024. Tourism surged in New York City in 2024, but Manhattan hotel sales fell 18% year-over-year to $1.47 billion last year. Finally, retail sales jumped 48% to $2.23 billion in 2024, and transaction volume rose 54% to 57 trades.

Join Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, as he delves into Ariel’s 2024 Multifamily Research Report with Founding Partner Victor Sozio and Senior Director of Capital Services Matt Swerdlow. 

In 2024, New York City’s multifamily market saw $8.91 billion in sales across 1,107 transactions, marking year-over-year increases of 14% in dollar volume and 4% in transactions. Rent-stabilized properties, which comprised 29% of the market, faced continued pressure due to high leverage, rising expenses and the lingering impact of HSTPA—leading some owners to consider 610 amendments for affordable housing conversions. Meanwhile, free market assets dominated in Manhattan and Brooklyn and attracted strong lender interest citywide. 

For deeper insights, explore Ariel’s research 2024 Multifamily Year In Review New York City. 

This podcast is a recording of the panel Ralph Bumbaca, Regional President – Metro New York for TD Bank, moderated at Ariel's February 5th Coffee & Cap Rates event hosted by TD Bank. 

The panel of affordable housing experts Eli S. Weiss, Principal of Joy Construction; Tell Metzger, SVP of Equity Investments at Community Preservation Corporation; and Brendan McBride, Senior Development Director at Gilbane Development Company shared their unique perspective on New York City’s commercial real estate market, with a particular focus on new housing policies and opportunities in the affordable multifamily sector.

Over 200 NYC real estate professionals attended the networking breakfast held at TD Bank’s conference center at One Vanderbilt. More information about the event is available here.