Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Anthony Vinci, author of The Fourth Intelligence Revolution: The Future of Espionage and the Battle to Save America, to examine how intelligence has moved from a government function to something that now permeates everyday life. Vinci traces the evolution from earlier intelligence eras to what he describes as a fourth revolution, where AI, data, and global competition with adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran are reshaping espionage in real time. The conversation explores how this new environment blurs the line between state and society, why individuals have become both targets and participants in intelligence collection, and whether the U.S. intelligence community is prepared for a landscape that is expanding faster than its traditional structures.

Is the intelligence community structured to keep up with an AI-driven environment that is evolving faster than its institutions? What role should Congress, oversight, and private companies play as intelligence expands beyond traditional government boundaries? And as counterintelligence threats move into the digital and civic space, what does an information-resilient society look like and how will the role of the intelligence officer evolve in the years ahead?

You can learn more about The Fourth Intelligence Revolution, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250370907/thefourthintelligencerevolution/ 

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@joshuachuminski 

@anthonyjvinci

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*Note: This episode was recorded on February 11, 2026

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Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Madeline Hart, co-author of Mobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III, to examine the argument that the United States is already in a kind of undeclared emergency and whether its defense industrial base is prepared for what comes next. Hart traces how the U.S. moved from a system that once powered wartime production and Cold War competition to one that is increasingly disconnected from the speed and innovation of the commercial economy, and explains why rebuilding that link is central to deterrence. The conversation also explores the growing role of nontraditional defense companies, the tension between innovation and bureaucracy, and what it would take to move from a peacetime footing to something more responsive.

If this is a call to “mobilize,” how urgent is the situation really, and how did the United States get here? Why has the defense industrial base drifted so far from the commercial economy, and what is standing in the way of bringing them back together? And as innovation shifts toward nontraditional companies, what does the right balance look like between government and industry to ensure new technologies can actually be integrated and delivered to the warfighter?

You can learn more about The American Edge, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/Mobilize-Reboot-American-Industrial-World/dp/B0FQWGC94Z 

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@joshuachuminski 

@Madeline_Zimm

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*Note: This episode was recorded on March 9, 2026

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Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Seth G. Jones, author of The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance, to examine whether the United States is prepared for an era of renewed great-power competition. Jones explains how military dominance has historically depended on the relationship between technological innovation and industrial capacity, and why he believes the U.S. defense industrial base is still operating on a peacetime footing even as China rapidly expands its military capabilities. The conversation also explores the role of America’s private technology sector—and whether deeper partnerships between the Pentagon and innovative firms are essential to maintaining U.S. military advantage.

Is the emerging challenge from countries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea a true “axis,” or a series of overlapping interests that converge against the Western-led order? How prepared is the United States for a sustained strategic competition with China, particularly if it is relying on expensive and vulnerable systems while adversaries field cheaper, rapidly adaptable technologies? And if Jones were advising Secretary Hegseth and the Pentagon today, what steps would he prioritize to strengthen the U.S. defense industrial base and restore America’s technological edge?

You can learn more about The American Edge, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/American-Edge-Military-Sources-Dominance/dp/0197764606

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@joshuachuminski 

@SethGJones

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*Note: This episode was recorded on January 9, 2026

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Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Anna Arutunyan, author of Rebel Russia: Dissent and Protest from the Tsars to Navalny, to explore Russian history through the lens of rebellion and dissent. Arutunyan traces the recurring dance between rebels and rulers—from the Tsars to the Soviet era to the present—and explains why uprisings so often appear to fail, yet still leave lasting marks on the Russian state. Drawing on centuries of history and her own experience reporting on Russia’s descent into authoritarianism, she examines whether dissent is a crisis-driven phenomenon or a persistent undercurrent, and how individual leaders and entrenched systems together shape Russia’s cycles of repression and reform.

Are Russia’s authoritarian patterns driven more by personalities at the top or by the structures of the state itself? What moral, spiritual, or communal threads connect dissidents across eras—and why do certain opposition figures or movements periodically emerge that seem to cut across Russian society rather than remain siloed? And looking ahead, if Russia’s history is defined by cycles of rebellion and repression, what might come after Putin—and what conditions would shape whatever comes next?

You can learn more about Rebel Russia, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=rebel-russia-dissent-and-protest-from-the-tsars-to-navalny--9781509552290. 

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@joshuachuminski 

@scrawnya

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*Note: This episode was recorded on December 8, 2025

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Season 2 Episode 5 - How the United States Would Fight China: The Risks of Pursuing a Rapid Victory with Franz-Stefan Gady

Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Franz-Stefan Gady, author of How the United States Would Fight China: The Risks of Pursuing a Rapid Victory, to examine how Washington imagines a future conflict with the People’s Republic of China—and why those assumptions may be dangerously flawed. Gady breaks down the core features of the American way of war, from reliance on information superiority and air dominance to expectations of a short, decisive campaign, and explains why those advantages can no longer be taken for granted. Drawing on U.S. doctrine, force structure, and PLA adaptation over the past three decades, he argues that a conflict over Taiwan is far more likely to resemble a protracted, multi-domain war of attrition.

How has the PLA learned from decades of observing American military overmatch, from Iraq to Ukraine? Does the United States clearly understand PRC redlines—and do Chinese leaders understand ours? And is the U.S. military, its industrial base, and its political system prepared to generate and sustain the mass required for a long war with China?

You can learn more about How the United States Would Fight China, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/how-the-united-states-would-fight-china-9780197838303. 

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@joshuachuminski 

@HoansSolo

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*Note: This episode was recorded on December 4, 2025

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Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Emma Ashford, author of First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World, to unpack what it means for the United States to operate in an international system it no longer dominates alone. Ashford traces how post–Cold War triumphalism gave way to today’s multipolar reality, explains when the U.S. unipolar moment truly began to fade, and lays out her case for a more pragmatic grand strategy rooted in what she calls “realist internationalism.” The conversation explores how this framework differs from both traditional realism and liberal internationalism, and what it would ask Washington to prioritize—and reconsider—as global power continues to diffuse.

What would realist internationalism look like in practice for U.S. policymakers? Can the United States pursue a narrower, interest-based foreign policy while maintaining an open economic strategy with allies and partners? And as Washington adjusts to a world among equals, how should it engage Europe and rising second-tier powers like India, Turkey, and Germany?

You can learn more about First Among Equals, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300279542/first-among-equals/. 

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@joshuachuminski 

@EmmaMAshford

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*Note: This episode was recorded November 18, 2025

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Starting off the year with a nuclear bang, Joshua Huminski is joined by Ankit Panda, author of The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon, to unpack why nuclear weapons are once again at the center of global statecraft—and why today’s risks don’t map neatly onto the Cold War playbook. Panda explains what defines this new nuclear age, how a more crowded and technologically complex nuclear landscape is reshaping deterrence, and why the erosion of arms control has left the world with fewer guardrails at exactly the wrong time.

Can Washington, Moscow, and Beijing realistically sit down to discuss arms control in a nuclear “trilemma”? Is the United States being forced to relearn deterrence lessons that atrophied after decades of strategic focus elsewhere? How is Europe grappling with nuclear threats from Russia while navigating uncertainty around long-term U.S. guarantees? And looking ahead, how does this nuclear age end—and what might a fourth nuclear age look like?

You can learn more about The New Nuclear Age, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=the-new-nuclear-age-at-the-precipice-of-armageddon--9781509557462. 

Check out today’s experts on Twitter:

@joshuachuminski 

@nktpnd

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Season 2 Episode 2 - Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World with Mark Galeotti

Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Mark Galeotti, author of Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World, to examine how organised crime shapes, and is shaped by,  the modern state. Galeotti unpacks what “organised crime” actually is, why the boundary between the “upper world” and “underworld” is often thinner than we think, and how criminal networks adapt faster than governments to new technologies, new markets, and new enforcement tactics. 

At what point does organised crime become so entrenched that the state has no choice but to confront it, or quietly accommodate it? How should law enforcement balance today’s threats with tomorrow’s high-tech criminal landscape? And should organised crime be treated as a core national security issue alongside defense and foreign policy, and if we did, how would it change the way we make policy?

You can learn more about Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/445951/homo-criminalis-by-galeotti-mark/9781529148220.

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@joshuachuminski 

@MarkGaleotti

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We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/JMPZDUk6VLo

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Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Dr. Matthew Ford to explore the ideas behind War in the Smartphone Age and what it means for how we understand and fight modern wars. Ford breaks down how smartphones and the digital “stack” have reshaped power on today’s battlefields, from Ukraine to Gaza, and how constant connectivity blurs the line between combatant and observer. He examines how viral videos and endless imagery can distort our sense of winning and losing, how participatory war draws civilians into the fight, and what this means for militaries trying to keep pace with hyper-connected conflict.

What responsibilities do technology companies carry when their platforms and infrastructure are now deeply embedded in warfare? Has the smartphone narrowed, or widened, the gap between advanced militaries and insurgent groups? And looking ahead, how might these dynamics shape great-power conflict and the decisions of future defense leaders?

You can learn more about War in the Smartphone Age: Conflict, Connectivity and the Crises at Our Fingertips, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/War-Smartphone-Age-Connectivity-Fingertips/dp/0197829848. 

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@joshuachuminski 

@warmatters

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Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski speaks with General H.R. McMaster (ret.) about the emerging axis of aggressors—Russia, China, and others—and what their coordinated challenges mean for American power and global stability. They discuss how these regimes are pushing for a return to a multipolar world, exploiting perceptions of American weakness, and contesting U.S. leadership. He also examines whether America’s 20th-century institutions are equipped for today’s geopolitical competition and why strategic empathy is essential for understanding our adversaries.

What’s driving the alignment between authoritarian powers—and can the U.S. effectively counter it? Is Washington thinking creatively enough to both pressure and engage rivals like Russia and China? How should American institutions adapt to compete in an era of disinformation, proxy conflicts, and strategic influence? And as Europe takes greater responsibility for its own defense, could that shift unintentionally weaken transatlantic unity?

Check out today’s experts on Twitter:

@joshuachuminski from @CSPC_DC

@LTGHRMcMaster from @HooverInst, @FSIStanford, @FDD_CMPP, and @Hudsoninstitute

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