Commodity Week

The May 21st episode of Commodity Week featured a panel discussion with Todd Gleason, Curt Kimmel, Dave Chatterton, and Collin Watters regarding the current state of agricultural markets. The discussion focused on several key drivers, including weather, the potential for significant Chinese agricultural purchases, and the impact of renewable fuel policies like renewable diesel on the grain market. While the panel expressed optimism for a strong market, they noted that geopolitics and international relations, particularly with China, continue to create uncertainty and volatility for producers. Panelists emphasized the need for producers to remain flexible and opportunistic in their marketing strategies, suggesting that while current conditions are supportive, market participants must navigate potential supply chain, logistical, and political challenges to maximize profitability.

Panelists: 
- Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Collin Watters, ILCorn.org

Panelist
- Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing
- Brian Stark, The Andersons

The May 14 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features panelists Greg Johnson, Chip Nellinger, and Brian Stark analyzing several critical agricultural market drivers. The panel extensively reviews the latest USDA WASDE report, highlighting a projected 3-million-acre reduction in corn plantings and emphasizing a slim margin for error in global crop supplies. They also note an unexpected decrease in total corn demand alongside an increase in soybean demand. Geopolitical tensions factor heavily into the market outlook, with the panel observing negative market reactions to the lack of immediate agricultural purchase agreements following recent US-China meetings, particularly as China currently relies on cheaper Brazilian soybeans. Additionally, they discuss the broader macroeconomic risks of crude oil hovering near $100 per barrel while markets await further clarity regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Shifting to domestic factors and producer strategies, the panelists advise farmers to capitalize on strong eastern cash basis levels and recent market rallies. Specifically, they suggest rewarding $12 soybean futures with sales, while indicating less urgency to sell $5 corn unless summer weather issues materialize. On the policy front, the House's passage of year-round E15 ethanol legislation is characterized as a long-term infrastructure development rather than an immediate demand shock. Finally, the panel observes that Midwest crop planting progress remains highly sporadic due to variable wet and dry weather conditions.

Panelists
- Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk.com
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com

The May 7 edition of Commodity Week features analysts Mike Zuzolo and Garrett Toay discussing current agricultural and energy market conditions. The panel notes that while recent rains have aided corn and soybean planting in parts of Kansas and Illinois, dry conditions have led to significant abandonment of hard red winter wheat in states like Kansas and Nebraska. The analysts draw parallels between tightening supplies in the wheat and crude oil markets, attributing the latter to macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical conflicts, military actions affecting Venezuelan and Iranian oil, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These structural uncertainties, alongside a pending meeting between Trump and Xi and the upcoming USDA WASDE report, are heavily influencing agricultural trade, particularly concerning Chinese demand for US soybeans and the influx of Brazilian beef. Given the high market volatility, both analysts advise producers to rely on paper positions rather than immediate cash sales.

Panelists
- Ellen Dearden, AgReview
- Logan Kimmel, Roach Ag
- Arlan Suderman, StoneX

The April 30 broadcast of Commodity Week examines agricultural marketing strategies amid geopolitical and economic volatility. Panelists urge producers to utilize current market rallies to execute incremental grain sales for the 2026 and 2027 crop years. The market is currently heavily influenced by speculative fund investments maintaining long positions in grains and cattle, which elevates price floors but increases market volatility. 

Geopolitical factors, such as the ongoing Iranian war and high global energy costs, are driving inflation and creating long-term concerns regarding fertilizer supplies into 2027. Furthermore, anticipation of a mid-May summit between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi suggests potential shifts in trade agreements, with China likely targeting imports of U.S. beef, pork, and wheat rather than soybeans, alongside complex negotiations regarding biofuel feedstocks and used cooking oil.

Panelist
- Brian Stark, AndersonsGrain.com
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com

Panelists
 - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
 - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net

The April 16 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, featured panelists Naomi Blohm, Greg Johnson, and Jim McCormick analyzing the current agricultural market landscape and the geopolitical factors influencing it. A primary focus was the potential shift in planting acres from corn to soybeans across the Midwest, driven by elevated input costs—specifically diesel and fertilizer—and compounded by heavy spring rainfall delaying field work. These fertilizer price spikes are being exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which have trapped shipping vessels in the Persian Gulf and prompted countries like India to heavily subsidize and secure global fertilizer supplies. The panel also evaluated grain marketing strategies, with Greg Johnson noting farmers still may be holding roughly 30% to 35% of their old crop corn in anticipation of a price rally. However, the experts warned that unless significant weather issues or war-driven crude oil spikes emerge by mid-summer, old crop basis could crash as elevators reach capacity ahead of the fall harvest. Consequently, they urged producers to consider moving their remaining grain sooner rather than later to avoid logistical bottlenecks and dropping prices.

Panelists
 - Shane Holtorf, Logic Ag Marketing
 - Chuck Shelby, RMCommodities a Div of Zaner 
 - Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge

Panelists
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com

Panelists
 - Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com
 - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalFarmMarketing.com
 - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net

The March 26 edition of Commodity Week features host Todd Gleason with analysts Dave Chatterton, Curt Kimmel, and Greg Johnson.

The panel identifies the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran, as the primary driver of current market volatility. This "headline risk" is dictating money flow, inflating energy markets, and elevating fertilizer costs. The analysts note that if the conflict is prolonged, as expected, high input costs will persist into the 2027 crop year.

Regarding crop marketing, all analysts recommend that producers execute new crop sales to capitalize on the current price rally, which has pushed levels above break-even and crop insurance guarantees. Greg Johnson specifically advises producers to be 40-50% sold on soybeans and 25-30% sold on corn, citing the potential for heavy soybean acreage and significant South American competition. Curt Kimmel emphasizes the necessity of utilizing defensive hedging and price floors to manage the extreme market volatility.

The panel anticipates the upcoming EPA Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) and Small Refinery Exemptions (SRE) announcements may trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" market reaction, as positive expectations appear to be already priced into the market. Dave Chatterton warns that the market build-up into the announcement naturally positions it for disappointment.

Ahead of the USDA Prospective Plantings report, acreage estimates center around 94 to 94.5 million acres for corn and 86 million acres for soybeans. Dave Chatterton notes that high input costs may push some marginal acres to soybeans, particularly in areas like the Dakotas or Southern Illinois where pre-buying fertilizer is less common.

Weather conditions across growing regions present a sharp contrast. Topsoil moisture in the Eastern Corn Belt is adequate for early planting. Conversely, severe drought in the Western Plains—specifically Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska—is actively deteriorating the hard red winter wheat crop, a factor the panel continues to monitor closely.

Panelists
- Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
- Seth Vander Weide, Logic Ag Marketing
- Sherman Newlin, Risk Management Commodities Zaner Financial