The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Con Job Report – Ep. 87


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Once again, a week of worse than expected economic data punctuated by another better than expected non-farm payroll report from the government
ADP private sector payroll report was slightly below estimates
5,000 manufacturing jobs lost - 3rd consecutive monthly decline
Unemployment rate dropped
Labor participation rate up to 62.9 - .2% above lowest point
Large sector of labor force still comprised of older workers
Teens, twenties and thirties are at all-time lows
Older Americans want part-time jobs, so increase of part-time jobs contribute to increase in all jobs
Given the strong government jobs number, the media is discounting all the weak data, including GDP, productivity, consumer spending and industrial production
The jobs we're creating do not reflect economic strength
The weekly unemployment numbers are hovering at 42-year lows
Does anyone believe that this is the strongest economy in 42 years?
The hiring numbers are suspect to begin with because of the government's assumptions
The Trade Deficit dropped not because our exports surged, but because out imports plunged
Our economy is too weak to support a greater number of imports
A closer look at the data behind the government jobs number actually supports the rest of the weak economic data
Personal Income and Spending on the month missed estimates
May Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly
April Factory Orders fell by more than expected
Year over year, orders are down 6.4%
6th consecutive month that factory orders have been down year over year
This has only happened in America during a recession
Mortgage applications fell sharply on the week - 7.6% decline, led by a 12% decline in re-fi's
May Services PMI fell to 56.2 - lowest level since January
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 55.7 - the lowest level of the year
The revision to Q1 Productivity - 3.1% decline
We also had a decline in 2014 Q4
Corporate profits plunged 5.9% in Q1
Unit Labor Costs surged by 6.7% - this does not represent wages
All this data predicts future layoffs
The Fed knows this, so they are reluctant to raise rates
The Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index fell to 42.5 the 8th consecutive decline - the first time in its 30 - year history
The Dow continued to decline on the jobs report
NASDAQ still hanging in
Margin debt is at a record high
The dollar was stronger on the week
The euro finished positive
By next year European inflation will force the Bundesbank to retreat from QE
Gold was down on the week, as euro strength signals QE less likely in Europe
Expectations of rising interest rates have been suppressing gold, but when reality rears its ugly head, the sellers will be gone and the buyers will be out in full force
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