Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Corn Belt Drought-Buster in Progress?? + Fertilizer "Collusion" Update


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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌧️ Rain Hits the Corn Belt
Rain has returned to the drought-stricken Corn Belt. Over the last 72 hours, a wide band dropped 1–3 inches across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Radar remains active this morning, with a strong system stretching from southeast Missouri into southern/eastern Illinois and across Indiana and Ohio.

📉 Grain Futures Slip
Grain markets moved lower Wednesday as attention shifted away from the Middle East conflict. May corn lost nearly 3 cents to around $4.44, May soybeans fell about 1 cent to near $11.70, and Chicago May wheat dropped roughly 6 cents to about $5.68. Ample global supplies, concerns over Chinese soybean demand, and rain forecasts across the winter wheat belt weighed on prices.

⚖️ DOJ Investigates Fertilizer Companies
The US Department of Justice is investigating several major fertilizer producers for potential price collusion. Companies under scrutiny include Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. The probe is in its early stages but has bipartisan support amid concerns over high farm input costs and food prices.

🚢 Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapses
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted. Vessel traffic dropped from more than 100 ships late last week to just a handful early this week. The strait is a critical chokepoint for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer feedstocks, and disruptions have pushed commodity prices higher.

✈️ Fuel Buyers Rush to Hedge
Airlines and shipping firms are rushing to hedge fuel costs as crude prices surge. Many are using call options to protect against further spikes, with jet fuel prices in Europe hitting their highest level since 2022.

🌽 Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production slipped to 1.1 million barrels per day last week, down slightly from the prior week but still above last year. Stocks increased to 26.34 million barrels. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from roughly 5 to 35 cents.

📦 Flash Corn Sale
USDA reported a flash sale of 125,000 metric tons (about 5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.

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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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