Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Corn Demand is STRONG - Why Can't the Market Rally?!


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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Grain Export Demand Still 🔥
USDA reported multiple flash corn sales on Thursday:
• 100,800mt to Colombia
• 392,500mt to Mexico
➡️ Both for 2025/26 MY
Corn demand remains fantastic — 🚢 exports + ⚗️ ethanol running near record pace — yet futures just can’t seem to catch a bid.

📦 “Catch-Up” Export Sales Report
Week ending Oct 30:
• Corn: 2mmt — down 📉 11% WoW (Mexico biggest buyer)
• Soybeans: 1.2mmt — down 📉 14% WoW (Unknown biggest buyer; China finally showed with 232kmt)
• Wheat: 505kmt — down slightly (Mexico biggest buyer)

🐖 China’s Pork Prices Keep Sinking
• Pork values now the lowest since 2022
• Prices -18% YTD, expected to fall further
• Weak consumer spending + slow economy
• China’s sow herd only -2.1% YoY so far
➡️ If cuts deepen → less feed demand → soybean implications

⛽ API Flips Again on E15
American Petroleum Institute now supports year-round E15 🤯
✔ Joined biofuel groups urging legislation
✔ Also pushing for limits on EPA refinery exemptions
🔊 Pete Meyer:
“Positive step but not mandatory. Stations need blender pumps + storage — not feasible in big cities.”

🌾 Canada’s Record Wheat Crop
StatsCan final crop report:
• ~40mmt wheat, 🔺11.2% YoY — new all-time record
• Beats 38.5mmt estimates
• Spring wheat the driver: 29.3mmt (+10.3% YoY)
➡️ More pressure on a wheat market already struggling — especially spring wheat vs winter wheat

🌦 Drought Monitor Update
Corn Belt: mostly steady
✔ Improvements: N. Illinois & SE Wisconsin
❌ Slight worsening: Michigan
High Plains: little change
✔ Only modest improvement in NE Kansas


US Areas in Drought:
• Corn — 30%
• Soybeans — 30%
• Winter Wheat — 35%
• Spring Wheat — 16%
• Cattle — 25%

...more
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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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