Conference tournament week is here for the 2024-2025 Division III basketball season and what happens this week will shape the landscape heading into the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Join us this week as we talk through all the conference tournament outlooks that have implications for the tournament bubble. Who is in good shape should they fail to win their conference tournament and who has at-large chances hanging on by a thread?

There is also still a lot to play out for the race for the top eight protected seeds and the top 16 who could be in line for hosting an opening weekend pod. We put odds on it all with the help of the D3 Datacast computer running 1,000 simulations.

We also look back at how we did against our week 16 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 17 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.

Related Episodes:

What Every D3 Basketball Fan Needs To Know About NPI - Episode 101: https://youtu.be/gqYqgCoG8aA

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

Daily Score Predictions: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/score-predictions/

NPI: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

NPI Projection/Simulations: https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

Show Links:

▶ Website:  https://d3datacast.com/

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Show hosts:

Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAG

Zac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder

The stretch run of this Division III basketball season is playing out a little differently with the change from the old regional ranking system to the new NPI. As this would have been the week we got the first set of fully ranked regional rankings, we take a look at how those regional rankings might have looked this week under the old criteria.

How would those regional rankings have slotted teams into the national picture? How do they compare to the rankings we’re getting with NPI? Has the move to NPI led to distinct “winners” and “losers” and does it look like an overall better toolset? All that and more in what should be a great show for anyone who would have preferred a year of NPI alongside the old familiar system rather than the abrupt change in how teams will be selected and seeded for the NCAA Tournament.

We also look back at how we did against our week 15 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 16 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.

Related Episodes:

What Every D3 Basketball Fan Needs To Know About NPI - Episode 101: https://youtu.be/gqYqgCoG8aA

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

Daily Score Predictions: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/score-predictions/

NPI: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

NPI Projection/Simulations: https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

Show Links:

▶ Website:  https://d3datacast.com/

▶ Subscribe to the channel:https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast

▶ Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Facebook: https://facebook.com/d3datacast

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Show hosts:

Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAG

Zac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder

After another terrific week of the 2024-2025 Division III men’s basketball season it’s time to check in on the developing picture as the NCAA Tournament draws nearer. It’s hard to believe just three weeks remain until the national tournament and there is a lot of important jockeying for position yet to play out.

With the help of the D3 Datacast computer running simulations to play out the final weeks 1,000 times, we take a look at the race for the top eight protected seeds, the top 16 seed that will put themselves in position to host opening weekend pods, and how the bubble picture is taking shape, especially within the context of results from this past week.

As an added bonus, Matt takes the top projected seeds and shows how the top eight are likely to be placed in the bracket and how the rest of top 16 could be slotted and selected for hosting opportunities. New bracketing principles in place for this year make those top eight seed particularly important so be sure to understand what “protection” these teams will receive.

We also look back at how we did against our week 14 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 15 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.

Related Episodes:

What Every D3 Basketball Fan Needs To Know About NPI - Episode 101:https://youtu.be/gqYqgCoG8aA

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings:https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

Daily Score Predictions:https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/score-predictions/

NPI:https://d3datacast.com/npi/

NPI Projection/Simulations:https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

Show Links:

▶ Website: https://d3datacast.com/

▶ Subscribe to the channel:https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast

▶ Follow on Twitter:https://twitter.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Facebook:https://facebook.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/1twRPsVN00cCOxnFMldaw1?si=96c775bee5904b8e

▶ Become our Teammate on Patreon:https://patreon.com/D3Datacast

▶ D3 Datacast Merch:https://www.bonfire.com/store/d3-datacast/

Show hosts:

Matt Snyder:https://twitter.com/FFTMAG

Zac Snyder:https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder

The calendar turning to February marks the start of the Division III basketball season stretch run. Teams are locked in to the conference races and doing all they can to secure an automatic qualifying bid to the 2025 NCAA Division III men’s basketball tournament but all but one team per conference will fall short of that goal. That leaves just 21 at-large bids up for grabs.

Which teams are real contenders to receive an at-large bid should they need it and which are going at risk of seeing their bubble burst? How teams perform over the last few weeks of the season will ultimately determine that but with the help of the D3 Datacast computer running 1,000 simulations we can get a feel for how likely each team is to get into the tournament should they need to rely on an at-large bid to do so.

This week’s show kicks off our bubble watch where we categorize teams as locks, solid, bubble-in, bubble-out or probably out based on how often they secure at-large bids when necessary over the course of 1,000 rest of season simulations.

We also look back at how we did against our week 13 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 14 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.

Related Episodes:

What Every D3 Basketball Fan Needs To Know About NPI - Episode 101: https://youtu.be/gqYqgCoG8aA

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

Daily Score Predictions: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/score-predictions/

NPI: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

NPI Projection/Simulations: https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

Show Links:

▶ Website:  https://d3datacast.com/

▶ Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast

▶ Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Facebook: https://facebook.com/d3datacast

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▶ D3 Datacast Merch: https://www.bonfire.com/store/d3-datacast/

Show hosts:

Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAG

Zac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder

We are deep into the Division III men’s basketball season but if you think that means we’re gaining any clarity into the Top 25 picture, think again! This week we go deep into Matt’s Top 25 ballot then go a step further by taking a look at his next 25. Which teams are just off the ballot and do these next 25 teams have anything in common? We break it down and talk through it all.

Top 25 consideration may be nice but it’s really position within the NPI rankings that teams are fighting over. We follow up our Top 25/next 25 discussion with an explanation of why the final NPI Top 8 is so important and what it will mean for teams that earn those coveted spots.

We also look back at how we did against our week 12 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 13 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.

Related Episodes:

What Every D3 Basketball Fan Needs To Know About NPI - Episode 101: https://youtu.be/gqYqgCoG8aA

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

NPI: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

Show Links:

▶ Website:  https://d3datacast.com/

▶ Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast

▶ Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Facebook: https://facebook.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1twRPsVN00cCOxnFMldaw1?si=96c775bee5904b8e

▶ Become our Teammate on Patreon: https://patreon.com/D3Datacast

▶ D3 Datacast Merch: https://www.bonfire.com/store/d3-datacast/

Show hosts:

Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAG
Zac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder

There is a lot of basketball to be played between now and when at-large selections to the 2025 NCAA Division III men’s basketball tournament are made but we can still get a picture of where those bids are likely to come from. With the help of the D3 Datacast computer we simulated the rest of the season 1,000 times and applied NPI to the results.

That produced results ranging from a group of conferences that had at least one team receive a Pool C (at-large) bid in all 1,000 simulations to some that were zero out of 1,000. Most were something in between. Join us this week as we run through the results for each conference and group the locks, near locks, probably will, bid thief potential, probably won’t and no at-larges.

We also look back at how we did against our week 11 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 12 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.

Related Episodes:

What Every D3 Basketball Fan Needs To Know About NPI - Episode 101: https://youtu.be/gqYqgCoG8aA

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

NPI: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

Show Links:

▶ Website:  https://d3datacast.com/

▶ Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast

▶ Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Facebook: https://facebook.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1twRPsVN00cCOxnFMldaw1?si=96c775bee5904b8e

▶ Become our Teammate on Patreon: https://patreon.com/D3Datacast

▶ D3 Datacast Merch: https://www.bonfire.com/store/d3-datacast/

Show hosts:

Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAG

Zac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder

The Division III basketball landscape has changed in terms of how teams are selected and seeded for the national tournament. The regional ranking system is a thing of the past, replaced by a single national ranking system called the NCAA Power Index, or NPI.

The old system, for better and worse, was familiar so moving to a new system can lead to questions and confusion. That’s where we can help. We’ve been deep into NPI going back to an offseason episode giving an initial explanation but we’re back in the thick of basketball season to give a more specific look at NPI for men’s and women’s basketball. What is it? How does it compare to the old system? How does it work? What will ranking season look like now? Are regional rankings still a thing? These are all questions we answer and discuss in this week’s show.

We also look back at how we did against our week ten picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 11 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.

Related Episodes:

Unpacking NPI - New Tournament Selection Metric for Division 3 Sports - Episode 83: https://youtu.be/xrKp8McryUA

What D3 Football Fans Should Know About NPI - Episode 89: https://youtu.be/94_NTM2k1nc

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

NPI: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

Show Links:

▶ Website:  https://d3datacast.com/

▶ Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast

▶ Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Facebook: https://facebook.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1twRPsVN00cCOxnFMldaw1?si=96c775bee5904b8e

▶ Become our Teammate on Patreon: https://patreon.com/D3Datacast

▶ D3 Datacast Merch: https://www.bonfire.com/store/d3-datacast/

Show hosts:

Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAG

Zac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder

The start of January marks the traditional start to conference play so we fire up the D3 Datacast computer to run 1,000 season simulations to see which conferences are shaping up to have the tightest races.

Some conferences have already started conference play, giving some teams conference wins in the bank. How remaining games yet to be played end up turning projected odds into hard wins and losses will determine which of the branching paths through our 1,000 simulations becomes reality. It is fun to take a look at what could happen, whether it be likely or unlikely, then even more fun to watch the games play out to see what will happen.

We also look back at how we did against our week nine picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week ten picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in a fun mailbag segment.

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

NPI: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

Show Links:

▶ Website:  https://d3datacast.com/

▶ Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast

▶ Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Facebook: https://facebook.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1twRPsVN00cCOxnFMldaw1?si=96c775bee5904b8e

▶ Become our Teammate on Patreon: https://patreon.com/D3Datacast

▶ D3 Datacast Merch: https://www.bonfire.com/store/d3-datacast/

Show hosts:

Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAG

Zac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder

The break in the Division III basketball schedule has given us the opportunity to pause and reflect on what we’ve seen so far and how it may have differed from our expectations heading into the season. With a fresh set of eyes we take a look back at some things we thought in the preseason that haven’t, at least not yet, turned out the way we thought they would. Yes, we were wrong about some things and we’re ready to admit it and talk about them!

We also look back at how we did against our week eight picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week nine picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in a robust mailbag segment.

Related Episodes:

Hot Takes and Bold Predictions for 2024-25 - Episode 91: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0Er0Pb3WXU

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

NPI: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

Show Links:

▶ Website:  https://d3datacast.com/

▶ Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast

▶ Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Facebook: https://facebook.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1twRPsVN00cCOxnFMldaw1?si=96c775bee5904b8e

▶ Become our Teammate on Patreon: https://patreon.com/D3Datacast

▶ D3 Datacast Merch: https://www.bonfire.com/store/d3-datacast/

Show hosts:

Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAG

Zac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder

Now that most teams have played at least eight games the D3 Datacast computer is relying solely on in-season results for calculating efficiency ratings. That makes this week the perfect time to check in to see how the computer views the developing national picture - both in terms of teams that stand out as the Top 20 overall but also dive in a little deeper to see which teams are performing as the top ten offenses and defenses.

There are a lot of ways to get it done so it’s more about how well you do what you do rather than how fast you play. However, it can be fun to also check in on tempo to see which teams play fastests and which play at a more deliberate pace.

We also look back at how we did against our week seven picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week eight picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.

Related Links:

Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

NPI: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

Show Links:

▶ Website:  https://d3datacast.com/

▶ Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast

▶ Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Facebook: https://facebook.com/d3datacast

▶ Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1twRPsVN00cCOxnFMldaw1?si=96c775bee5904b8e

▶ Become our Teammate on Patreon: https://patreon.com/D3Datacast

▶ D3 Datacast Merch: https://www.bonfire.com/store/d3-datacast/

Show hosts:

Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAG

Zac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder