Daniel Davis Deep Dive

About a week ago, former President Trump made a surprise announcement halting U.S. military aid to Ukraine, specifically cutting off critical defensive weapons like long-range interceptors and 155mm shells—vital components for Ukraine’s defense. This move shocked Ukrainian officials and led to urgent calls for clarification. It also triggered a flurry of international concern and phone calls between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.

However, during a recent press event following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to the White House, Trump reversed course, stating that the U.S. would continue sending primarily defensive weapons to Ukraine, as they are "getting hit very hard."

Colonel Jacques Baud, a former Swiss intelligence officer, commented that Trump might be overestimating the leverage U.S. arms transfers provide. He also pointed out deeper systemic issues: the U.S. is running low on munitions and struggling to replenish its stockpiles due to supply chain challenges—particularly a shortage of rare earth materials, much of which come from China. China has recently restricted such exports to U.S. defense contractors, which could impact production of critical systems like missiles and even F-35s.

Supporting this, on July 1, reports emerged that the Deputy Secretary of Defense had warned U.S. interceptor stockpiles were critically low, prompting a recommendation to suspend transfers to Ukraine. This led to public reassurances from U.S. officials, including Ambassador Whitaker, who framed the pause as part of an “America First” strategy to prioritize U.S. defense readiness.

The Pentagon, sensing alarm at home and abroad, then walked back the panic, emphasizing this was a “capability review”—not a signal of weakness—and claimed the U.S. military remains fully capable and prepared, citing recent successful operations as proof.

In essence, the controversy reveals:

Strategic uncertainty and inconsistent messaging from the U.S.

Internal concerns about munitions shortages and long-term sustainability

The growing impact of supply chain dependencies on geopolitical decisions

A fragile balance between supporting Ukraine and maintaining U.S. military readiness.

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The discussion with Col. Douglas Macgregor explores rising tensions that suggest a growing risk of broader war between NATO and Russia, despite both sides claiming to seek deterrence. Putin has launched a new domestic mobilization campaign called the People’s Front, signaling a shift toward full-scale war preparation in Russia. While his rhetoric frames it as a civil unity movement, many Russians—including within his inner circle—are frustrated with the prolonged nature of the Ukraine conflict and expect total national mobilization to finish it decisively.

Macgregor argues that Russia’s economy has adapted well to sanctions, and although the war has taken longer than expected, Russian losses are relatively low compared to Ukraine’s, which he claims have reached catastrophic levels (allegedly 1.7–1.8 million dead, though this number is highly controversial and not corroborated by independent sources).

Beyond Ukraine, Russia faces new strategic problems in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, once a Russian ally, is now aligned with Israel, Turkey, and the U.S., and may be preparing to invade northwestern Iran—potentially triggering ethnic unrest among Azeris in Iran. Azerbaijan is also reportedly hosting Western intelligence operations (Mossad, CIA, MI6) targeting Iran. This threatens Iran’s internal stability and could lead to a new regional war.

Meanwhile, Erdogan’s Turkey is pursuing its own ambitions in Syria and Lebanon, sometimes cooperating with Israel but with diverging goals. Russia, focused on Ukraine, may have lost control over its southern flank, creating a wider regional instability involving Iran, Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Macgregor suggests Moscow now realizes the urgency of ending the Ukraine war to reassert control over its broader strategic position.

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Earlier this week, the U.S. announced it would stop sending 155mm artillery shells and air defense missiles to Ukraine. However, President Trump now appears to be reconsidering, saying the U.S. might send more Patriot interceptors after all. This comes amid ongoing, intense Russian air attacks — including recent strikes near Kyiv — that have overwhelmed Ukraine's limited air defenses.

Trump acknowledged the need for these interceptors, calling them effective, but also downplayed expectations, admitting that a few missiles won’t change the war’s outcome. He cited recent attacks involving over 1,000 Russian drones and missiles in just two days — far beyond what Ukraine’s current defenses can handle. The U.S. can only produce about 600 interceptors per month, highlighting the scale of the problem.

In public comments, Trump emphasized that he doesn’t want to see more people die but repeatedly framed the war as “Biden’s deal,” suggesting he may be positioning himself to step back from deeper U.S. involvement. His language lacked firm commitment, hinting that while he might send aid or enforce sanctions, he's unsure it will matter.

He also referenced recent calls with both Putin (on July 3) and Zelensky (on July 4), calling the latter “very strategic.” On sanctions, Trump noted ongoing Senate efforts but cast doubt on their effectiveness, saying Russia has become largely sanctions-proof.

Overall, Trump seems increasingly pragmatic and reluctant, signaling a potential shift back to a strategy of disengagement if he believes the conflict is unwinnable or politically costly.

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Trump Admits: PUTIN's NOT STOPPING /Lt Col Daniel Davis

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The conversation opens with a reflection on how the Russia-Ukraine war can appear, at a glance, to have devolved into a financial and bureaucratic contest—focused on who’s spending the most, hiring the most contractors, or making the best deals. But the reality remains: there is still a brutal war occurring, with real human cost, suffering, and military progress on the ground.

Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, historian and author of War Diaries Part One: Russia-Ukraine War 2022–2023, joins Daniel Davis to give insight into how the war unfolded and how the West has misunderstood many of its elements.

Key Points:

Initial Expectations and Misjudgments:

Most analysts (including the author) expected the war to end quickly, given Russia’s initial advantage.

Russia did not conduct a "shock and awe" campaign like the U.S. typically does; instead, it tried to limit damage and casualties, assuming it would eventually have to live peacefully with Ukrainians again.

This restraint was mistaken in the West as weakness.

Western vs. Russian Military Thinking:

Western wars, especially in the Middle East, often lacked cultural ties or concern for civilian life.

In contrast, Russia and Ukraine share centuries of familial, cultural, and historical ties, which influenced early Russian military conduct.

2014 and the Crimea Precedent:

In 2014, during the Crimea standoff, Ukrainian troops largely surrendered or defected.

Russia expected a similar reaction in 2022, misjudging how much the Ukrainian military had changed, especially due to U.S. and UK training and ideological hardening.

Ukrainian Resistance:

By 2022, Ukraine had a motivated and ideologically-driven military, with radical nationalist elements like the Azov Battalion integrated into its formal forces.

These changes made a quick Russian victory impossible.

Intelligence Failures:

Russia significantly underestimated Ukrainian resistance.

The U.S. overestimated how quickly Russia would take over.

Peace Talks and Zelensky’s Position:

Early on, Zelensky publicly entertained the idea of neutrality (non-NATO status), which was Russia’s core demand.

Negotiations in Belarus and Istanbul showed promise, with draft agreements emerging by April 2022.

However, Zelensky’s position soon hardened, possibly due to Western influence, and meaningful talks stalled.

Dr. Doctorow expresses skepticism about taking Zelensky’s statements at face value, suggesting political maneuvering.

About the Book:

War Diaries is not a conventional military history but a personal journalistic account.

It includes rare insights from trips to Russia during the war—a period when most Western journalists had left due to COVID or legal fears.

Doctorow had access via a humanitarian visa (his wife is Russian), giving him a unique on-the-ground perspective.

Conclusion:

The war has been deeply misunderstood in the West due to assumptions about how wars are fought, underestimation of Russia’s strategy, and overreliance on propaganda. Doctorow’s book offers a ground-level narrative of how those expectations clashed with the messy, prolonged, and politically complex reality of the war.

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Russia is intensifying its offensive against Ukraine, while Ukraine is struggling with dwindling ammunition supplies following the U.S. cutting some aid. Meanwhile, Western political elites are seen as disconnected from the war’s harsh realities, continuing to act as though their policies are working. On the ground, Ukrainian troops are suffering heavy casualties and steadily losing territory to Russia.

Key Points from Interview with Journalist Patrick Bob:

Isolation Strategy Failing: The West's attempt to isolate Russia economically and diplomatically has failed. Russia remains well-connected globally, especially with countries in Africa, Asia, and South America. Over 150 UN member states still cooperate with Russia.

Western Decline, Eastern Rise: Economic power is shifting to East Asia (e.g., Singapore, Hong Kong). Russia’s economy is growing (reportedly 4% GDP growth), while Western economies, particularly Germany’s, are shrinking under the weight of their own sanctions.

Sanctions Backfiring: Western sanctions against Russia are hurting European economies more than Russia. These sanctions have turned into a boomerang, especially as Russia is resource-rich and self-sufficient.

Dollar Dominance Declining: Many countries are moving away from the U.S. dollar in trade, weakening America’s ability to fund its military spending through debt and inflation exportation.

Budget Strain and NATO Goals Unrealistic: Western countries, including Germany, are unlikely to meet NATO's 5% defense spending targets due to already strained budgets. This would force deep cuts to social programs, likely causing civil unrest.

Internal Western Fractures: Some European leaders (e.g., Slovakia’s Robert Fico) oppose further sanctions on Russia due to domestic costs like rising energy prices, showing growing disunity within the West.

Trump's Strategy: The Trump team doesn't seek peace so much as to shift the financial and military burden of the Ukraine war onto Europe, further stressing transatlantic relations.

Grim Forecast for Ukraine: Ukraine's military lines are overstretched and weakening. The interview suggests Ukraine's front may collapse soon, and predicts Germany could become a direct participant in the war, making it a target for Russian retaliation.

Wider Implications: With reports of U.S. coordination of the war from German soil, the risk of escalation and broader European involvement is increasing. The interview ends on a warning that Germany might be the "next" to suffer the consequences of this conflict.

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Summary: Trump–Putin Call on Ukraine War and Beyond

A previously unannounced call took place between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, shortly after the U.S. halted key weapons shipments to Ukraine. Trump used the call to urge Putin for an immediate ceasefire and a quick end to the war, but Putin refused, reaffirming that Russia will not back down from its core objectives.

Key Points:

Tone of the Call: Despite the refusal, the Russian side described the call as cordial and professional, with long-term diplomatic openness emphasized.

Putin’s Position: Russia insists that any peace must resolve the “root causes” of the war, including:

Permanent Ukrainian neutrality (no NATO),

Demilitarization,

Denazification (as defined by Russia),

Legal guarantees of a non-nuclear Ukraine, and

Protection for Russian-speaking populations.

Russian Readout: Putin reiterated Russia’s willingness to negotiate, but only under the conditions laid out in its 12-point proposal (first floated in Istanbul). No third round of talks has been scheduled, but Russia remains open to it.

U.S. Media Response: Outlets like The Wall Street Journal reported the main takeaway as "Trump asked, Russia refused." The White House had not yet issued its own summary.

Western Disconnect: The commentary highlights that many in the West, including European leaders, still believe they can pressure Russia into concessions. But Russia’s military and political leverage gives it little reason to compromise.

Middle East Issues: The call also addressed Iran and broader Middle East tensions, with both leaders agreeing on the importance of diplomatic solutions over escalation.

Bilateral Outlook: The two leaders reportedly confirmed an interest in future U.S.-Russia cooperation, particularly in energy and space, signaling that both are thinking beyond the current war.

Conclusion:

While Trump failed to secure a breakthrough on Ukraine, the call maintained open lines of communication and reinforced Russia’s firm, unchanged demands. Trump is praised for continuing diplomacy, in contrast to Western hawkishness, with the analysis suggesting that dialogue—however limited—is better than isolation.

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Russia is intensifying its offensive against Ukraine, while Ukraine is struggling with dwindling ammunition supplies following the U.S. cutting some aid. Meanwhile, Western political elites are seen as disconnected from the war’s harsh realities, continuing to act as though their policies are working. On the ground, Ukrainian troops are suffering heavy casualties and steadily losing territory to Russia.

Key Points from Interview with Journalist Patrick Bob:

Isolation Strategy Failing: The West's attempt to isolate Russia economically and diplomatically has failed. Russia remains well-connected globally, especially with countries in Africa, Asia, and South America. Over 150 UN member states still cooperate with Russia.

Western Decline, Eastern Rise: Economic power is shifting to East Asia (e.g., Singapore, Hong Kong). Russia’s economy is growing (reportedly 4% GDP growth), while Western economies, particularly Germany’s, are shrinking under the weight of their own sanctions.

Sanctions Backfiring: Western sanctions against Russia are hurting European economies more than Russia. These sanctions have turned into a boomerang, especially as Russia is resource-rich and self-sufficient.

Dollar Dominance Declining: Many countries are moving away from the U.S. dollar in trade, weakening America’s ability to fund its military spending through debt and inflation exportation.

Budget Strain and NATO Goals Unrealistic: Western countries, including Germany, are unlikely to meet NATO's 5% defense spending targets due to already strained budgets. This would force deep cuts to social programs, likely causing civil unrest

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The conversation centers on whether Russia is a weak or ineffective ally—especially in the context of its response to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran. Western media often portrays Russia as too weak or reluctant to help allies like Iran militarily, but Russian expert Andrei Martyanov strongly criticizes this view as propaganda based on ignorance and poor journalism.

Key Points:

Russia-Iran Military Dynamic:

Russia did offer Iran military support (e.g., air defense systems), but Iran declined.

This decision was driven by parts of Iran’s political elite—especially urban, pro-Western factions—who hoped rejecting Russian help might win favor with the West. That gamble failed when the West did not come to Iran's aid during Israeli attacks.

Iran’s Miscalculation:

Iran ratified a Russian economic agreement just before the attacks, but President Raisi (referred to mistakenly as “Peshkan”) delayed signing it until after the strikes began—suggesting Iran misread the geopolitical situation.

After the strikes, Iran quickly pivoted back to Russia, initiating high-level defense and diplomatic meetings to reestablish deeper cooperation.

Why Russia Didn’t Intervene Militarily:

The idea that Russia "failed" Iran is simplistic. Russia cannot help an ally that refuses assistance.

Russia views its relationship with Iran as strategic, but not an unconditional alliance like NATO. It's based on mutual interests, not blind loyalty.

Historical Context:

Relations between Russia (and the USSR) and Iran have long been complicated—marked by wars, invasions (e.g., during WWII), and political distrust.

Iran has historically viewed both the U.S. and the Soviet Union as imperialist powers, even if it occasionally works with them.

Despite this, ties have warmed since the fall of the USSR, though Iran still harbors a persistent pro-Western current in its culture and politics.

What Now?:

Iran, having learned the hard way that the West won’t back it, is now actively engaging Russia in full-spectrum cooperation—likely including military.

Putin emphasized continued Russian support for Iran’s peaceful nuclear development and legitimate regional interests, indicating no change in Russia’s underlying stance.

Conclusion:

Russia is not too weak to help its allies; rather, Iran’s refusal of Russian help due to internal politics and pro-Western hopes backfired. Russia responded pragmatically, and now that Iran has reassessed, the partnership is intensifying. The perception of Russian weakness is largely a Western media narrative that ignores the complexity and pragmatism of realpolitik.

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The U.S. has abruptly halted deliveries of many key weapons and ammunition categories to Ukraine—a shift that surprised both Ukraine and many within the U.S. government. While past administrations, particularly under Biden, promised ongoing military aid “for as long as it takes,” the new Trump administration has now reversed course. Although Trump had previously hinted at ending the war, he had not formally restricted aid until now.

The Ukrainian government reportedly received no warning and is scrambling to understand the implications, while Russia is likely encouraged by the development.

Commentators, including Alexander Mercouris, argue that this decision was inevitable. The U.S. faces rising global military demands—in the Middle East, with China, and elsewhere—and is confronting dwindling weapons stockpiles. The Pentagon is prioritizing American defense needs, including systems like Patriot missiles and B-2 capabilities, which are limited in supply.

Critics of the administration’s messaging say invoking “America First” only now appears inconsistent, especially when this strategic reassessment was foreseeable months ago. Indicators, like comments from officials such as Secretary Rubio earlier this year, hinted at the logistical strain. However, the administration delayed action—possibly to save face or avoid signaling weakness to rivals like China.

In summary, the cutoff in aid reflects logistical limits, not just a policy shift. The U.S. can no longer sustain high-level support to Ukraine without compromising its own strategic readiness.

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