We are just about a week away from the Federal Reserve's first rate increase in about 10 years

Everybody believes the stage is set for liftoff based on the most recent better than expected Non-Farms Payroll report

The idea is that the only thing preventing the Fed from liftoff would have been a horrific jobs number

In fact the markets estimated 190,000 jobs added and we got 211,000

We did beat estimates, and in fact they revised last month's number up to 298,000

The unemployment rate held steady at 5%

This was not a strong report, any way you look at it

The labor force participation rate: 62.5% is just one-tenth of a percent from the lowest level since the mid-1970's

That is still going in the wrong direction

We had the biggest surge in involuntary part-time workers - 300,000 new workers really wanted full time employment - the biggest jump in more than 3 years

Janet Yellen has consistently stated until recently that before moving up interest rates she wanted to see improvement in the job market, specifically in participation and full-time vs part-time jobs

Thus far that has not happened

So why does everybody believe that the Fed is about to raise interest rates regardless of its stated criteria?

I believed that the Fed had no intention of raising rates and I believe they did not, except one thing has changed: they have backed themselves into a corner

They have floated some trial balloons as a litmus test

One change of rhetoric occurred during Yellen's press conference last week as she switched from waiting for the data to improve to confidence that it will improve some time in the next year

Another change is the idea that a rate hike would trigger a series of hikes with the goal of normalizing interest rates

That's why they were calling it liftoff

Now, since the markets tanked after September did not deliver a liftoff, the Fed Chair has changed her tune - liftoff does not matter, the trajectory does

She may be saying, don't worry, if we raise rates, there won't be another one any time soon, meaning it would be the end of the tightening cycle

The beginning of tightening during the taper, and if we get a rate hike it will end that process

If this is just a trivial rate hike, why raise rates at all, considering the fact that the data is still bad?

Manufacturing is already in a recession

The ISM number that came out last week hit a 6-year low and even the service sector ISM missed estimates

Retail sales and consumer confidence have been disappointing, indicating the end of this weak recovery which is actually a bubble

The Fed now feels their credibility is on the line - it is a symbolic gesture to show confidence in the economy

If they were truly confident, they would not assure everybody that the rate hikes are not likely to continue

In 2016 we will be in a recession unless the Fed does something to delay its onset, and it may be too late for them to put out the fire they have already lit

Why does Janet Yellen not say she believes the economy is still weak?

A window into Yellen's perception is an interview that Ben Bernanke gave on Freakonomics yesterday.  It's entertaining, but it doesn't tell you anything new about Ben Bernanke

The most important revelation occurred about halfway through the interview when the interviewer played some clips of Bernanke on television in 2005-2006.

During those clips, Bernanke was talking about the great shape the economy was in, minimizing the housing and mortgage market troubles

The interviewer asked how he felt listening to himself now, knowing how wrong he was on the economy then

The first words out of his mouth were that he admitted he was speaking as a member of the Administration

After that, he went back and said the economy was good in 2005 - 2006, so I wasn't wrong, because it was good, right up until the end

That's like a guy jumping off the Empire State Building saying,