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By Steve Keen & Phil Dobbie
Hosted on Acast. See
... more4.1
3434 ratings
The podcast currently has 562 episodes available.
The UK’s unemployment rate is 4.1%, the inflation rate is growing at 3.1% and the economy is growing at 0.6% quarter on quarter. That’s how the economy is doing, what more do we need to know?
Well, it would be useful to know whether the unemployed are predominantly in certain income groups, or that income growth was greater in particular parts of the economy Like, more for capitalists and less for workers?
As Steve and Phil discuss this week, economists are building business models built on aggregates. Breaking down aggregate data into functions in society, or income, will add a lot of extra complexity to models, but they would do a much better job of showing us what’s going on. For example, central bank policy right now aims to restrict spending and wage growth to tame inflation. But, even if that was the cause of inflation, what if those creating inflation by spending more on services, are distinct from those facing the consequences of central bank policy, losing jobs and paying higher mortgages?
Steve points out that as the economy slows – and it has to because of climate change - knowing the distribution of income and consumption becomes vitally important. Unless we are prepared to see the rich grow richer at the expense of everyone else.
Economic models are built on aggregates of key variables. Those aggregates hide distribution impacts. That makes it easier for central banks to pursue monetary policy without worrying about the consequences.
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The pandemic was the biggest economic disturbance since the second world war. In both cases supply chains were severely disrupted, either by German U-boats or, more recently, factories and borders closed to stop the spread of disease. On the face of it, though, we have got off relatively Scot-free. We haven’t seen the massive fall in GDP experienced after the war. In fact we saw a sharper fall in GDP in the 2008 financial crisis.
What is different is how we have handled the readjustment. After the war the focus was on growth, with very low interest rates, even though the inflation rate in Britain almost reached 17%. This time we’re told growth is again the focus, but the policies being applied, by governments and central banks, seem to suggest otherwise.
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The global share market has always been dominated by the US, now we’re seeing a number share of very large tech companies claiming a larger slice of that pie. Even though they are trading with price to earnings ratios well beyond the historic average, these companies won’t fail. They dominate the market, with billions of customers, low production costs, a low number of workers and the spare cash to vest in growth without the expense of extra capital.
Phil asks Steve, what damage are these companies doing – to the share market, to the global economy and to investors. So we need to knock these companies down to size? Steve thinks not, but has another way of tackling the issue.
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The podcast currently has 562 episodes available.
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