Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives

Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives

By DeepValuesBusinessInvesting
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Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives episodes

  • Anthropic IPO: $1.48T Value vs a $2T Price Tag

    We take apart Anthropic's 416-page IPO prospectus with Damodaran's valuation: revenue up 1,400%, but $473B in compute commitments that work like debt, a BB+ rating and a five-class share structure. His optimistic base case puts intrinsic value at about $1.48T, while expected IPO pricing of $1.5T to $2T leaves no margin of safety.


    Chapters

    (0:00) Anthropic's IPO: A Deep Value X-Ray

    (0:46) Great Technology Isn't Great Investment

    (2:05) Business Model and Competitive Position

    (2:52) Revenue: The Boom and the Brakes

    (5:52) Profitability: The Operating Leverage Trap

    (6:53) The Intrinsic Value Engine

    (7:34) Profitability: The Operating Leverage Trap

    (8:12) Capital Allocation and Hidden Debt

    (9:35) Three Existential Risks

    (11:18) The Governance Dealbreaker

    (14:36) The Intrinsic Value Engine

    (14:56) Business Model and Competitive Position

    (15:17) The Intrinsic Value Engine

    (15:37) Valuation and Margin of Safety

    (16:15) Bull vs Bear Scenarios

    (16:55) The Verdict for Long-Term Investors

    (18:34) Apps for Intelligent Value Investors

    (19:00) Get the free apps


    Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-10-28-anthropic-ipo-valuation-and-prospectus-analysis/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued


    DeepValues toolkit

    • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued

    20 min
  • Fed Pauses at 4%, But Two Governors Wanted More Hikes

    The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00%, but two governors dissented and voted for another hike, and Chair Warsh says conditions still aren't tight. Here is what that 10-2 split means for discount rates, margin of safety and companies with heavy debt.


    Chapters

    (0:00) FOMC Rate Pause Big Picture

    (2:21) Target Rate and 10-2 Vote

    (3:45) Strong Economy, Stubborn Inflation

    (4:25) Key Risks: The Bear Case

    (5:04) Strong Economy, Stubborn Inflation

    (9:07) The Warsh Playbook

    (12:25) Financial Conditions Spectrum

    (13:10) The Warsh Playbook

    (14:11) Strong Economy, Stubborn Inflation

    (14:52) Financial Conditions Spectrum

    (15:50) Key Risks: The Bear Case

    (18:15) Takeaway for Long-Term Investors

    (20:25) The DeepValues Ecosystem

    (21:02) Get the free apps


    DeepValues toolkit

    • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=why_two_fed_governors_demanded_rate_hike

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dmarket

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=why_two_fed_governors_demanded_rate_hike

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=why_two_fed_governors_demanded_rate_hike

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=why_two_fed_governors_demanded_rate_hike


    Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.


    • This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/y8XriOffd3o

    Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@TheDeepValues?sub_confirmation=1

    Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2XDn2NMbbfvrJiqk9xAqR9 · Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1811057697

    22 min
  • Anthropic's $2T IPO Red Flags, and Where AV Value Hides | Stock Market

    We read Anthropic's S-1 with a Graham-Dodd lens: a 3,300% headline growth rate, a growth slowdown in Q3, more than $800B in compute commitments and a single share that gives seven founders control. Then we look at where autonomous-vehicle economics look most durable, at least under the episode's assumptions.


    Chapters

    (0:00) A Deep Value Lens on AI and AVs

    (1:05) Generative Euphoria vs Physical AI

    (2:09) Diagnosing the Anthropic S-1 Headlines

    (3:12) The Token Maxing Illusion

    (6:09) Moat, Governance and Macro Risks

    (8:15) Diagnosing the Anthropic S-1 Headlines

    (9:38) The Iceberg of Capital Commitments

    (10:39) Moat, Governance and Macro Risks

    (13:23) Value Verdict: A Speculative Venture Bet

    (14:41) AV Safety Value vs Headwinds

    (15:38) The AV Competitive Matrix

    (17:21) Geopolitics and the Moat of Geography

    (17:40) AV Safety Value vs Headwinds

    (18:22) The Picks and Shovels Strategy

    (20:46) Value Verdict: A Speculative Venture Bet

    (21:46) The Picks and Shovels Strategy

    (22:26) Apps for the Intelligent Value Investor

    (23:16) Get the free apps


    DeepValues toolkit

    • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=anthropic_s1_red_flags_and_autonomous_ve

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dmarket

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=anthropic_s1_red_flags_and_autonomous_ve

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=anthropic_s1_red_flags_and_autonomous_ve

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=anthropic_s1_red_flags_and_autonomous_ve


    Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.


    • This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/C_YY9sp3yjM

    24 min
  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — Bearish? Robinhood Made $2.25B in Cash. Why Is It Still Overvalued?

    Bearish on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) as of 2026-11-11: -28% Margin of safety. We audit Robinhood's Q3 2026 numbers: $2.25B in free cash flow, a 46% operating margin, zero debt, and the share dilution behind the buybacks. Then we show why a 42.8x P/E and a 17.8% implied growth rate put today's price above our estimated intrinsic-value range.


    Chapters

    (0:00) Robinhood Q3 2026 Dossier

    (0:38) Business Reality vs Price Reality

    (1:56) Revenue Mix and Funded Customers

    (4:37) Fortress Balance Sheet and Cash

    (5:16) Revenue Growth and Operating Leverage

    (5:54) Narrow but Widening Moat

    (8:11) Fortress Balance Sheet and Cash

    (8:32) Key Risks Pre-Mortem

    (10:29) Capital Allocation and Dilution

    (13:34) The Standards Scorecard

    (14:11) Bull Case vs Bear Case

    (17:55) Valuation Scenarios and Reverse DCF

    (19:53) Margin of Safety and Value Zones

    (20:13) Verdict and What Would Change It

    (20:34) Margin of Safety and Value Zones

    (21:17) Verdict and What Would Change It

    (23:02) Disclaimer

    (23:28) Get the free apps


    Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-10-27-robinhood-q3-2026-deep-value-intelligence-report/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=hood


    DeepValues toolkit

    • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=hood

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=hood

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=hood

    • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=hood


    Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.

    24 min
  • Anthropic S-1: 85% Margins, $600B in Commitments

    We run Anthropic's leaked S-1 numbers through a Graham-Dodd lens: 85% inference margins, $100B+ in cash and $500-600B in compute commitments. Then we look at what a trillion-dollar AI valuation leaves for a patient investor's margin of safety before the IPO.


    Chapters

    (0:00) Anthropic Deep Value Research

    (1:59) The Capital-Efficient Compounder

    (2:37) Selling a Dollar for Ten Cents

    (3:33) The Capital-Efficient Compounder

    (3:53) Unprecedented Operating Leverage

    (4:35) The Multi-Chip Moat

    (6:39) Anthropic vs. the Field

    (6:59) Unprecedented Operating Leverage

    (7:39) Unit Economics and Customer Concentration

    (11:50) Funding the Infrastructure Roadmap

    (14:33) Key Risks and Margin of Safety

    (15:12) The Mathematical Path to $1 Trillion

    (16:13) Key Risks and Margin of Safety

    (18:32) Anthropic vs. the Field

    (19:35) The Verdict: Paving the Parking Lot

    (20:17) The Mathematical Path to $1 Trillion

    (21:25) The Verdict: Paving the Parking Lot

    (22:51) Tools for Value Investors

    (23:08) Get the free apps


    DeepValues toolkit

    • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=valuing_anthropic_s_ipo_like_warren_buff

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=valuing_anthropic_s_ipo_like_warren_buff

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=valuing_anthropic_s_ipo_like_warren_buff

    • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=valuing_anthropic_s_ipo_like_warren_buff


    Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.


    • This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/7fTu_W5Dk1w

    Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@TheDeepValues?sub_confirmation=1

    24 min
  • Alibaba's 7x Growth Target Had a Hidden Human Cost | Money & Retirement

    A former Alibaba executive was told to multiply her forecast by seven, and her team hit it. Learn what that hyper-growth era cost her health and her family, and why value investors should audit their own human capital as carefully as a balance sheet.


    Chapters

    (0:00) The Economics of Hyper-Growth

    (0:55) Thesis: Growth's Unfunded Liabilities

    (2:39) The Scaling Engine

    (5:21) By the Numbers: The Bull Run

    (6:39) The Bear Case: Human Capital

    (7:41) Pivot to Intrinsic Value

    (10:03) The Cortisol Tax

    (11:43) Pivot to Intrinsic Value

    (12:06) Why Tech Frameworks Fail

    (13:03) The Ultimate Asset Class

    (13:25) Apps and Resources

    (14:11) Get the free apps


    DeepValues toolkit

    • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=from_alibaba_executive_to_special_needs_

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dmoney

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=money&utm_content=from_alibaba_executive_to_special_needs_

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=money&utm_content=from_alibaba_executive_to_special_needs_

    • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=money&utm_content=from_alibaba_executive_to_special_needs_


    Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.


    • This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/jzKvxzQB-qE

    Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@TheDeepValues?sub_confirmation=1

    Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2XDn2NMbbfvrJiqk9xAqR9 · Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1811057697

    15 min
  • PayPal (PYPL) — Bullish? PayPal at 9.3x Earnings: Value Trap or Cash Machine?

    Bullish on PayPal (PYPL) as of 2026-11-08: $6.58B Free cash flow TTM. We put PayPal's $6.58B in free cash flow, its 31% share retirement and three DCF scenarios side by side to see whether a 9.3x P/E is a value trap or a real margin of safety. Revenue is growing only 2% and Apple Pay is squeezing checkout, so the cash numbers tell you more than the story the market is telling.


    Chapters

    (0:00) PayPal Deep Value Teardown

    (0:43) The Investment Thesis

    (1:46) Business Model and Monetization

    (4:44) Moat and Competitive Threats

    (5:50) Key Financials TTM Q3 2026

    (6:55) Bull vs Bear Case and Risks

    (7:15) Key Financials TTM Q3 2026

    (10:33) Bull vs Bear Case and Risks

    (11:12) Capital Allocation and Buybacks

    (13:25) The Deep Value Scorecard

    (14:07) Valuation and Margin of Safety

    (14:50) Verdict: Undervalued

    (15:53) Resources for Value Investors

    (16:08) Get the free apps


    Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-10-27-paypal-valuation-and-financial-analysis/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=pypl


    DeepValues toolkit

    • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=pypl

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=pypl

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=pypl

    • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=pypl


    Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.


    • This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/bWHBTi95iKw

    Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@TheDeepValues?sub_confirmation=1

    17 min
  • Microsoft (MSFT) — Microsoft Offers 60,000 Buyouts to Fund $190B of AI Capex

    Deep value research on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-07: $190B AI capex plan. A leaked memo shows Microsoft offering buyouts to about 60,000 employees, roughly 27% of its workforce, while planning up to $190B in AI data center spending. We use a Graham-Buffett lens to show what swapping payroll for depreciating hardware means for owner earnings, maintenance capex and the moat.


    Chapters

    (0:00) The Capital Allocation Pivot

    (0:39) Swapping OPEX for CAPEX

    (1:47) Anatomy of the Buyout Memo

    (2:53) Velocity of Execution

    (3:16) What Stays vs. What Goes

    (6:03) The $190B Infrastructure Runway

    (7:04) Swapping OPEX for CAPEX

    (9:09) Velocity of Execution

    (10:09) The Bear Case Risks

    (12:44) The $190B Infrastructure Runway

    (14:50) AI-Era Playbook for Value Investors

    (18:05) Tools for Value Investors

    (18:43) Get the free apps


    Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/company/msft/2026-10-04-en/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=msft


    DeepValues toolkit

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=msft

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=msft

    • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=msft


    Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.


    • This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/U7Y0cSrOtLk

    Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@TheDeepValues?sub_confirmation=1

    Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2XDn2NMbbfvrJiqk9xAqR9 · Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1811057697

    20 min
  • Anthropic (ANT) — Bearish? Anthropic at $1.5T? An $80B Loss and a $431B Bet

    Bearish on Anthropic (ANT) as of 2026-11-06: $431B Fixed compute. We tear down Anthropic's S-1 to show why its $80.7B loss is mostly a non-cash accounting charge, and why $431B in fixed compute commitments matters far more. Then we stress-test the rumored $1.5T valuation with Graham-Dodd math to see whether any margin of safety is left.


    Chapters

    (0:00) Anthropic Pre-IPO Diagnostic

    (0:40) From AI Lab to Infrastructure Operator

    (1:02) Steepest Revenue Ramp in History

    (1:42) Consumption Revenue and the Agent Loop

    (2:02) The $80.7B Accounting Loss Explained

    (3:42) Operating Leverage Expands Rapidly

    (5:46) Liquidity Is Ammunition, Not FCF

    (7:40) From AI Lab to Infrastructure Operator

    (8:17) The $431B Infrastructure Bet

    (10:01) A Moat on a Six-Month Timer

    (10:41) Bull Case vs Bear Case

    (11:04) A Moat on a Six-Month Timer

    (12:02) Bull Case vs Bear Case

    (12:42) PBC Structure Subordinates Shareholders

    (15:21) Bull Case vs Bear Case

    (16:03) Stress-Testing the $1.5T Valuation

    (17:31) Bull Case vs Bear Case

    (18:34) Verdict: Awaiting a Margin of Safety

    (19:55) Resources for Value Investors

    (20:20) Get the free apps


    DeepValues toolkit

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=ant

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=ant

    • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=ant


    Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.


    • This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/CbJrxHV9j18

    Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@TheDeepValues?sub_confirmation=1

    Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2XDn2NMbbfvrJiqk9xAqR9 · Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1811057697

    21 min
  • $14T in 401(k)s Meets Private Equity's Exit Trap vs ASML | Stock Market

    Executive Order 14330 opens the $14 trillion 401(k) pool to private equity just as the average PE deal sits 60% below its 2021 valuation. We compare that mark-to-myth trap with ASML's transparent EUV monopoly, and show why even a wide moat needs a mid-cycle, normalized valuation.


    Chapters

    (0:00) The PE Trap and the Ultimate Monopoly

    (0:43) The Noise vs the Signal

    (1:47) EO 14330: The Exit Valve

    (2:07) Venture Capital Probability Funnel

    (2:25) The Mark-to-Myth Haircut

    (3:26) Public Moat vs Private Trap

    (4:05) Sequoia vs S&P 500 Benchmark

    (4:44) Public Moat vs Private Trap

    (5:45) The Signal: ASML Holding

    (6:08) How EUV Machines Print Chips

    (7:09) ASML's Moat and Market Position

    (7:50) Key Economics and Financials

    (8:49) Geopolitical Risks and Limits

    (9:27) Valuation: The Cyclical Trap

    (10:05) The Value Architect's Takeaways

    (10:44) Valuation: The Cyclical Trap

    (11:05) Geopolitical Risks and Limits

    (11:35) Get the free apps


    DeepValues toolkit

    • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

    • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dmarket

    • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=private_equity_in_401ks_vs_asml

    • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=private_equity_in_401ks_vs_asml

    • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

    • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=private_equity_in_401ks_vs_asml


    Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.


    • This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Fi2rsSEn8e8

    Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@TheDeepValues?sub_confirmation=1

    Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2XDn2NMbbfvrJiqk9xAqR9 · Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1811057697

    12 min

About Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives

From the publisher's feed

Value investing and stock analysis, Buffett-style. Each episode audits one company or market story: intrinsic value, discounted cash flow, margin of safety, moats and balance-sheet risk, ending with a…

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