Die ekonomie minuut

Verbeel jou die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie is ʼn Nissan 1400 bakkie en hierdie episode gaan oor die repokoers.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Imagine the South African economy is a Nissan 1400 bakkie and this episode is about the repo rate.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Yesterday's consumer price inflation figure made economists' guesses about today's repo rate decision much more difficult. Against expectations, inflation increased slightly in October from 7.5% to 7.6%. Increases in the prices of food and transport continued to be the major drivers of inflation. This is a small increase, but unfortunately, it is a movement in the wrong direction. Economists agreed that the repo rate will be increased today, but this increase in inflation may cause a larger increase than would otherwise be the case.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Gister se verbruikersprys inflasiesyfer het ekonome se raaiskote oor vandag se repokoersbesluit heelwat moeiliker gemaak. Teen verwagting in het inflasie in Oktobermaand effens toegeneem van 7,5% na 7,6%. Stygings in die pryse van voedsel en vervoer was steeds die groot drywers van inflasie. Dit is ʼn klein toename, maar dit is ongelukkig ʼn beweging in die verkeerde rigting. Ekonome was dit eens dat die repokoers vandag verhoog gaan word maar hierdie toename in inflasie gaan dalk ʼn groter verhoging veroorsaak as wat die geval sou wees.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

In ʼn week wat daar baie geskryf word oor rentekoerse is een van die redes waarom die repokoers nog ʼn keer verhoog moet word die rentekoersverskil tussen Amerikaanse en Suid-Afrikaanse staatskuld. Ons moet ʼn premie aanbied om beleggers na ons kapitaalmark te lok en wanneer die Amerikaners hulle rentekoers verhoog word die premie kleiner. As die Reserwebank hulle verhogings navolg ondersteun dit die mark vir ons staatskuld en die rand. Daardie premie is egter baie groot en nuwe navorsing vra hoeveel daarvan te doen het met kredietrisiko, met onsekerheid oor inflasievooruitsigte, of met die risiko dat die rand kan depresieer.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

** Kry die artikel waarop hierdie episode geskoei is by ideas.repec.

In a week where a lot is being written about interest rates, one of the reasons why the repo rate must be increased once more is the interest rate difference between U.S. and South African government debt. We have to offer a premium to attract investors to our capital market and when the Americans raise their interest rates the premium becomes smaller. If the Reserve Bank follows their increases, it supports the market for our government debt and the rand. However, that premium is very large and new research asks how much of it has to do with credit risk, with uncertainty about inflation prospects, or with the risk that the rand may depreciate.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

** Get the article that this episode draws on at ideas.repec.

This week is loaded with important economic indicators and the Bureau of Economic Research's weekly newsletter provides a good summary of what to watch. This includes the CPI and PPI inflation rates for October. The inflation figures are important for the Monetary Policy Committee's repo rate decision on Thursday. Something else, that is not an indicator, are the civil servants who are on strike today and will make the news. Last are the results of the fourth quarter survey of RMB and the Bureau's Business Confidence Index.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Hierdie week is gelaai met belangrike ekonomiese aanwysers en die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek se weeklikse nuusbrief gee ʼn goeie opsomming van wat om dop te hou. Dit sluit die VPI en PPI inflasiekoerse vir Oktobermaand in. Die inflasiesyfers is belangrik vir die Monetêre Beleidskomitee se repokoersbesluit Donderdag. Dit is nie ʼn aanwyser nie, maar die staatsamptenare wat vandag staak gaan die nuus haal. Laaste is die resultate van die vierde kwartaal opname van RMB en die Buro se Sakevertroue-indeks.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Towards the end of the year, credit rating agencies give an update on their view of South Africa's rating. On Friday, S&P Global said our rating remains below investment grade at BB, but with a positive outlook that it can improve. How does this affect each of us?

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Teen die einde van die jaar gee kredietgraderingsagentskappe ʼn opdatering van hulle siening van Suid-Afrika se gradering. Vrydag het S&P Global gesê ons gradering bly onder beleggingsgraad op BB, maar met ʼn positiewe vooruitsig dat dit kan verbeter. Hoe raak dit elkeen van ons?

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.