Die ekonomie minuut

Die afgelope week het Eskom hoof Andre de Ruyter ons laat skrik toe hy by geleentheid gepraat het van fase-15 beurtkrag. Ek het gedink alles eindig by fase-8. Die besonderhede is dat dit gegaan het oor wat sal gebeur wanneer Eskom die steenkoolkragstasies moet afskakel wat tans nie aan besoedelingsvoorskrifte voldoen nie. As daar reeds beurtkrag is voel meeste van ons sekerlik dat daardie stasies maar moet loop en ons sal later oor skoon lug bekommerd wees. Mens verstaan die noodsaak van elektrisiteitsvoorsiening en beskerming van werke, maar ons moet nie dink dit is sonder koste nie.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

I like to close the week with a few indicators. Statistics South Africa released August's producer price index yesterday. The producer price inflation rate is still very high at 16.6%, but it is slightly lower than in the month of July. The slight easing of the pressure on prices is attributed to the decrease in the fuel price in August. It seems that producer price inflation has also reached a turning point and the fuel price reductions in September and October will help with this.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ek sluit graag die week af met ʼn klompie aanwysers. Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister Augustusmaand se produsenteprysindeks bekend gemaak. Produsente se inflasiekoers is steeds baie hoog op 16,6%, maar dit is effens laer as in Juliemaand. Die effense vermindering in die druk op pryse word toegeskryf aan die afname in die brandstofprys in Augustus. Dit dan of produsenteprysinflasie ook ʼn draaipunt bereik het en die brandstofprys verlagings in September en Oktober gaan hiermee help.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Brittanje se nuwe eerste Minister, Lizz Truss, en Minister van Finansies, Kwasi Kwarteng, het verlede week ‘n groot makroekonomiese beleidsidee gevat en hulle mini-begroting daarop gebou. Die idee kom uit die Aanbodkant-ekonomie en die era van Reaganomics. Hulle mikpunt is 2,5% ekonomiese groei oor die medium termyn en die plan is om die ekonomie te stimuleer met belastingverligting en deregulering. Die meer as ₤100 miljard stimuluspakket bestaan uit belastingverligting van ₤45 miljard saam met ʼn ₤60 miljard energie-noodpakket wat vir huishoudings verligting moet bring van die stygende koste van gas. Alles word met skuld gefinansier. Of dit gaan werk sal net die tyd leer, maar hoe dinge oor die langtermyn uitspeel kan maklik vergeet word as koste oor die korttermyn te hoog is. Die markte hou nie van hierdie plan nie.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Britain's new Prime Minister, Lizz Truss, and Minister of Finance, Kwasi Kwarteng, took a big macroeconomic policy idea last week and built their mini-budget on it. The idea comes from Supply Side Economics and the era of Reaganomics. Their target is 2.5% economic growth over the medium term and the plan is to stimulate the economy with tax relief and deregulation. The more than ₤100 billion stimulus package consists of tax relief of ₤45 billion together with a ₤60 billion energy emergency package which should bring relief to households from the rising cost of gas. Everything is financed with debt. Only time will tell whether it will work, but how things play out over the long term can easily be forgotten if costs over the short term are too high. The markets do not like the plan.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Yesterday, Statistics South Africa announced the results of the Quarterly Employment Survey. It is different from the labor force survey and the focus is on employment in the formal sector. According to this, employment decreased from the first to the second quarter of the year. There were 22,000 new jobs created, but 141,000 jobs were lost. The survey also provides information on compensation. This shows that the average salary before deductions is R24 500 per month. It rose by just over 4% year-on-year in May. This is not good news, but what does it mean for us?

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister die resultate van die Kwartaalikse Opname van Indienname bekend gemaak. Dit is anders as die arbeidsmagopname en die fokus is op indiensname in die formele sektor. Hiervolgens het indiensname afgeneem van die eerste na die tweede kwartaal van die jaar. Daar is 22 000 nuwe werksgeleenthede geskep, maar 141 000 poste het verlore gegaan. Die opname gee ook inligting oor vergoeding. Dit wys dat die gemiddelde salaris voor aftrekkings is R24 500 per maand. Dit het in Meimaand op ʼn jaargrondslag met net meer as 4% gestyg. Hierdie is nie goeie nuus nie, maar wat beteken dit vir ons?

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Inflasie in die VSA bly hoog en die Amerikaanse Federale Reserwebank het verlede week aangedui dat hulle verwag dat hulle rentekoers vir langer hoër sal moet bly. In Juniemaand het hulle nog gesê dat hulle beleidskoers tot 3,4% kan styg, maar nou word 4,4% in Desember verwag. Daar is die moontlikheid dat dit vroeg volgende jaar tot 4,6% kan styg. Hulle ekonomiese groei vooruitskatting is verminder tot net 0,2% vir 2022 en Jerome Powell het gesê dat die kans vir ʼn sagte landing word nou skraal. ʼn Wêreldwye resessie lyk nou na ʼn groter moontlikheid en dit is hoekom die dollar so versterk, die olieprys daal en beurse so swak vaar. Daar is ook ander dinge aan die gang.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Inflation in the US remains high and the US Federal Reserve indicated last week that they expect interest rates to remain higher for longer. In June they still said that their policy rate could rise to 3.4%, but now 4.4% is expected in December. There is the possibility that it could rise to 4.6% early next year. Their economic growth forecast was reduced to just 0.2% for 2022 and Jerome Powell said that the chance for a soft landing is now slim. A global recession looks like a greater possibility and that is why the dollar is so strong, the oil price is falling and stock markets are doing so poorly. There are other things going on as well.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Last week, the slight drop in the inflation rate and the Reserve Bank's 75 basis point repo rate increase were headline economic news as load shedding continued. In today's episode, I want to quickly reflect on the repo rate hike, and say something about the mini-budget in October.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.