Die ekonomie minuut

Unfortunately, what happens at the US Fed does not stay there. It has an influence on exchange rates and financial markets all over the world and it is important to try to understand what happened last week. We know that the American inflation rate is above 9% and to fight it the Federal Reserve Bank first ended their policy of quantitative easing and then started to raise interest rates. The hope is for a soft landing, which means that they bring inflation under control without dampening economic activity or job creation too much. Exactly what the state of affairs is, is difficult to determine.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Statistics South Africa yesterday announced June's producer price inflation rate and it rose from 14.7% in May to 16.2%. Part of these previous months' producer price inflation will have to be passed on to consumers. The Reserve Bank has also identified a number of factors that can increase inflation. The result of all this is that consumer price inflation is likely to rise before it starts to fall. But there is some hope in the form of a drop in the fuel price and a slightly stronger rand.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister Juniemaand se produsenteprys inflasiekoers bekend gemaak en dit het gestyg vanaf 14,7% in Meimaand tot 16,2%. ʼn Deel van hierdie vorige maande se produsenteprysinflasie gaan nog deurgegee word aan verbruikers. Die Reserwebank het ook ʼn aantal faktore geidentifiseer wat inflasie kan verhoog. Die gevolg van dit alles is dat verbruikersprysinflasie waarskynlik nog gaan styg voor dit begin daal. Maar daar is ʼn bietjie hoop in ʼn daling van die brandstofprys en effens sterker rand.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

This week, the International Monetary Fund announced their forecasts for the growth of the world economy and they predict that economies will grow much more slowly this year than they had previously expected. In some countries, there may even be a contraction. This is the result of a number of shocks.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Die Internasionale Monetêre Fonds het hierdie week hulle vooruitskattings vir die groei van die wêreld-ekonomie bekend gemaak en hulle voorspel dat ekonomieë hierdie jaar heelwat stadiger gaan groei as wat hulle vroeër verwag het. In sommige lande kan daar selfs ʼn inkrimping wees. Dit is die gevolg van ʼn paar skokke.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Een van die aanwysers van hoe dit met die ekonomie gaan is die sogenaamde leidende aanwyser van die sakesiklus. Die siklus kan in ʼn opswaai, piek, afswaai, of trog wees en die leidende aanwyser is ʼn voorspeller van die die siklus in die volgende 6 tot 12 maande kan beweeg. Die nuutste syfer het met op ʼn maand-tot-maand basis met 0,7% gedaal en oor die jaar, met 8,5%. Dit dui op ʼn ekonomiese afswaai teen volgende jaar.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

One of the indicators of how the economy is doing is the so-called leading indicator of the business cycle. The cycle can be in an upswing, peak, downswing, or trough and the leading indicator is a predictor of where in the cycle we might be in the next 6 to 12 months. The latest figure has fallen by 0.7% on a month-on-month basis and by 8.5% over the year. This indicates a downturn by next year.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ek het verlede week baie gepraat oor inflasie en die Reserwebank se repokoersbesluit. Hierdie Woensdag word Juniemaand se produsenteprysinflasiesyfer bekend gemaak en verwagtinge is dat dit toegeneem het vanaf 14,7% in Meimaand, tot soveel as 15,6% in Junie. Een van die Reserwebank se bekommernisse is dat die aanvanlike prysskokke van brandstof en voedsel gaan uitbrei na ʼn volgehoue proses van stygings van lone en pryse. Daarvoor hou hulle inflasieverwagtinge fyn dop.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Last week I talked a lot about inflation and the Reserve Bank's repo rate decision. This week June's producer price inflation figure will be announced on Wednesday and expectations are that it increased from 14.7% in May, to as much as 15.6% in June. One of the Reserve Bank's concerns is that the initial shocks to fuel and food prices will expand into a sustained process of increases in wages and prices. So, they keep a close eye on inflation expectations.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Verlede week the The Economist tydskrif hulle nuutste Big Mac indeks bekende gemaak. Daarvolgens is die rand 54,5% onder-waardeer teen die Amerikaanse dollar. Dit beteken dat die rand behoort eintlikeintlik teen R7,75 per dollar behoort te verhandel, eerder as die R17 per dollar wat ons in die mark sien. Hoe werk dit, en wat beteken dit?

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.