Die ekonomie minuut

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown measures have been hotly debated over the past few days after Britain decided that South Africa should remain on their red list. Figures from the Bureau of Economic Research on exactly how much the tourism industry has suffered over the past 18 months are alarming.

Net toe ek dink dat ek volg nou al die indekse, ontdek ek drie ander: FNB en die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek sa sakevertroue-indeks vir siviele konstruksie-sektor, die Buro se kleinhandelaar-vertroue-indeks en AgBiz en die NOK se vertroue-indeks vir landboubesighede.

Just when I thought I am now following all the indices, I discovered three others: FNB and the Bureau of Economic Research has a business confidence index for the civil construction sector, the Bureau also has a retailer confidence index and AgBiz and the IDC's has a confidence index for agribusinesses.

Die JSE het gister swaar getrek en die indeks van alle aandele wat met 2,24% gedaal het. Het dit dalk iets te doen gehad met die Springbokke?

The JSE struggled yesterday and the all-share index fell 2.24%. Could it have something to do with the Springboks?

Julle het ook seker al opgemerk dat ʼn ekonoom nie sommer sal erken hy of sy is verras nie. As die repo koers dieselfde bly, styg, of daal sal een of ander ekonoom sê, nee wat, dit is al ingeprys deur die mark. Hierdie week se Monetêre beleidskomittee vergadering is een van daardie waar ekonome verwag dat die repokoers onveranderd sal bly, maar hulle ook fyn sal kyk vir leidrade vir wanneer die Reserwebank hulle beleid minder uitbreidend gaan maak en die repokoers begin verhoog.

You have also probably noticed that an economist will not readily admit that he or she is surprised. If the repo rate stays the same, rises, or falls some economists will say, that it has already been priced in by the market. This week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting is one of those where economists expect the repo rate to remain unchanged, but they will also look closely for clues as to when the Reserve Bank will make their start to taper the expansionary policy start increasing the repo rate.

Hierdie week se aanwysers het lig gewerp op wat in Juliemaand gebeur het. Julie het nog ʼn vlak-4 inperking gehad en daar was die onluste in KwaZulu-Natal en Gauteng. Hierdie week se data oor mynbouproduksie, asook groot- en kleinhandel vertel van daardie impak.

This week's indicators shed light on what happened in July. In July we still had a level 4 lockdown and there were riots in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. This week's data on mining production, as well as wholesale and retail trade, tell us of that impact.

Die Ekonomiese Vereniging van Suid-Afrika hou hierdie week ons twee-jaarlikse konferensie. Ek het al ʼn klomp interessante dinge gehoor en wil graag ʼn paar deel.