Die Ekonomiese Vereniging van Suid-Afrika hou hierdie week ons twee-jaarlikse konferensie. Ek het al ʼn klomp interessante dinge gehoor en wil graag ʼn paar deel.

The Economic Association of South Africa is having its biennial conference this week. I've heard a lot of interesting things and would like to share a few.

Gister is die Amerikaanse verbruikersprysinflasiekoers vir Augustusmaand bekend gemaak en ekonome het hulle asems bietjie opgehou. Dit was toe ʼn klein oorwinning vir die wat glo dat die inflasie druk daar van ʼn verbygaande aard is. Hulle inflasie was toe 5,3%, effens laer as die 5,4% van Junie en Juliemaand.

Yesterday, the US consumer price inflation rate for August was announced and for a moment, economists held their breath. It turned out to be a small victory for those who believe that inflationary pressures there are transitory. Their inflation rate came in at 5.3% for August, slightly lower than the 5.4% of June and July.

As mens probeer om die wisselkoers van die rand te verklaar of voorspel, dan laat jy die politieke ontleders en weervoorspellers goed lyk. Die afgelope week het die rand versterk teen die dollar ten spyte van ʼn lang lys van redes hoekom dit moes verswak.

When you try to explain or predict the exchange rate of the rand, you end up making political analysts and weather forecasters look good. Over the past week, the rand has strengthened against the dollar despite a long list of reasons why it should weaken.

Met verlede week se episodes oor die BBP syfers en ekonomiese groei was daar nie kans om te praat oor die inflasiemikpunt nie. Die Goewerneur van die Reserwebank, Lesetja Kganyago, het in ʼn toespraak gesê dat die mikpuntband van 3-6% vervang kan word deur ʼn enkele puntteiken van 3 of 4%. Daar kan wel ʼn marge van plus en minus 1 persentasiepunt toegelaat word. Hy het die argument gemaak dat die teiken laer gemaak kan word met die samewerking van die verskillende rolspelers in die openbare sektor wat geadministreerde pryse vasstel.

With last week's episodes on the GDP figures and economic growth, there was no chance to talk about the inflation target. The Governor of the Reserve Bank, Lesetja Kganyago, said in a speech that the target band of 3-6% could be replaced by a single point target of 3 or 4%. A margin of plus and minus 1 percentage point can be allowed. He argued that the target could be lowered with the cooperation of the various public sector role players who set administered prices.

Oor die algemeen is ekonome opgewonde oor die sterk ekonomiese groei in die tweede kwartaal. Hulle verwag dat die ekonomie sal terugkeer na die vlak van uitset voor die pandemie teen die middel van 2022. Baie hang af van die impak van die onluste in Juliemaand, maar die derde kwartaal se BBP data word eers in Desember gepubliseer. Intussen moet ons kyk na ander leidrade.

Overall, economists are excited about the strong economic growth in the second quarter. They expect the economy to return to pre-pandemic output levels by mid-2022. Yet much depends on the impact of the social unrest and riots in July, but third-quarter GDP data will only be published in December. In the meantime, we need to look at other clues.