Die ekonomie minuut

If, like me, you have been lying awake about the sustainability of government finances, there is now reason to sleep a little more peacefully - the Reserve Bank's quarterly bulletin shows that tax revenues, the deficit and government debt figures look much better than expected.

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister die resultate van die kwartaallikse opname van indiensname bekend gemaak. Dit meet indiensname onder 20 000 besighede. Die fokus is dus op die formele sektor en die opname sluit die landbou-sektor uit. Die syfers wat ons hier kry lyk effens anders as die Arbeidsmagopname. Daardie is ʼn opname onder huishoudings en gee meer besonderhede oor wie werk het, en werk soek.

Gister se syfers was vir die tweede kwartaal van hierdie jaar, tot en met die einde van Junie. Suid-Afrika het ʼn rekord hoogtepunt van werkloosheid bereik in die tweede kwartaal en die QES syfers bevestig dit.

Statistics South Africa yesterday announced the results of the quarterly employment survey. It measures employment among 20,000 businesses. The focus is therefore on the formal sector and the survey excludes the agricultural sector. The figures we get here look slightly different from the Labor Force Survey. The QLFS is a survey among households and gives more details about who has a job, and who is looking for a job. Yesterday's figures were for the second quarter of this year, up to the end of June. South Africa reached a record high level of unemployment in the second quarter and the QES figures confirm this.

Ekonome dink dat mense se verwagtinge oor inflasie is ʼn belangrike bepaler van die ware vlak van inflasie. As jy dink pryse gaan styg, dan vra jy vir ʼn groter salarisverhoging, dan styg die besigheid se koste, en dan gaan pryse styg. ʼn Belangrike deel van monetêre beleid is om ons inflasieverwagtinge te anker. Maar dalk loop hierdie storie nie heeltemal so nie...

Economists think that people's expectations about inflation are an important determinant of the actual level of inflation. If you think prices are going to increase, you ask for a bigger salary increase, then labour costs go up, and then prices go up too. An important part of monetary policy is to anchor our inflation expectations. But maybe there are doubts about all this...

Na Donderdag se Monetêre beleidskommitee vergadering wonder ontleders of die repokoers al in Novembermaand kan begin styg. Ek het in Vrydag se episode geredeneer dat hooflyn-inflasie is stabiel en dit lyk nie of die ekonomie oorverhit-groei nie. Dus, as die repokoers moet styg gaan wees as gevolg van buitelandse faktore. Maak die rentekoersverskil tussen die VSA en SA saak?

After Thursday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting, analysts are wondering whether the repo rate could start to rise as early as November. I reasoned in Friday's episode that headline inflation is stable and the economy does not seem to be overheating. So, if the repo rate should rise, it will be due to foreign factors. Does the USA-SA interest rate differential matter?

Die Reserwebank se monetêre beleidskomittee het vanmiddag aangekondig dat die repokoers en dus die primakoers onveranderd bly. Dit is na Augustusmaand se verbruikersprysinflasie effens gestyg het tot 4,9%, bo die middelpunt van die inflasiemikpunt van 3 tot 6%. Die goewerneur, Lesetja Kganyago het ʼn paar belangrike punte gemaak.

The Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee announced this afternoon that the repo rate and therefore the prime rate will remain unchanged. This is after August's consumer price inflation increased slightly to 4.9%, above the midpoint of the inflation target range of 3 to 6%. The governor, Lesetja Kganyago, made some important points.

Die impak van die Covid-19 pandemie en inperkingsmaatreels is die afgelope paar dae druk bespreek nadat Brittanje besluit het dat Suid-Afrika op hulle rooi-lys bly. Die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek se syfers oor presies hoe swaar die toerismebedryf die afgelope 18 maande gekry het is skrikwekkend.