Ek het aan die begin van die week gesê dat hierdie maand se ekonomiese aanwysers ongewoon gaan wees. So het nuwe motorverkope in April jaar-op-jaar met 6133,3% toegeneem.

In microeconomics, I teach students that a monopoly is bad for consumers. Compared to a competitive market, the monopolist demands a higher price and fewer consumers get the product or service that they want. The South African Post Office is currently in a court battle to regain their monopoly.

In mikro-ekonomie leer ek vir studente dat ʼn monopolie is sleg vir verbruikers. In vergelyking met ʼn mededingende mark vra die monopolis ʼn hoër prys en minder verbruikers kry die produk of diens. Die Suid-Afrikaanse Poskantoor is tans in ʼn hofstryd om hulle monopolie terug te kry.

During the lockdown, it was the smaller shopping malls that performed better and the bigger ones struggled as customers stayed at home and shopped online. The smaller malls, especially those in rural areas, had the grocery and other stores where people have spent their Covid grants. Now, an important sign of the recovery of the economy is that business at the big “malls” is increasing again.

Tydens die inperking was dit die kleiner inkopiesentrums wat beter gevaar het en die groottes wat swaar getrek het soos wat mense by die huis gebly het en aanlyn inkopies gedoen het. Die kleiner sentrums, veral in landelike gebiede het die kruideniersware en ander winkels waar mense hulle Covid-toelae bestee het. ʼn Belangrike teken van die herstel van die ekonomie is dat besigheid by die groot “malls”nou ook weer toeneem.

Economists know that May's economic indicators are going to be unusual. Last May we were in the middle of the level 5 lockdown and people were running backyard marathons. Anything is a huge improvement if you compare it to nothing. It is therefore much better to compare with just the past month. One such figure released today is the ABSA's Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector.

Ekonome weet dat Mei-maand se ekonomiese aanwysers gaan ongewoon wees. Verlede Mei was ons midde in die vlak-5 inperking en mense het maratons in die erf gehardloop. Enige aanwyser gaan met baie verbeter as dit van ʼn nulbasis af kom. Dit is dus veel beter om met die afgelope maand te vergelyk. Een so syfer wat gister bekend gemaak is, die ABSA se aankopebestuurdersindeks vir die vervaardigingsektor.

Economists would like to know how the economy is doing, but one of the big challenges is the delays with which official data is available - for example, the Gross Domestic Product is published quarterly and with a one-quarter lag. So-called "now casting" models use high-frequency data to predict the current quarter's level of economic activity. The Reserve Bank uses an index called the Truck-o-meter and in a recent ERSA podcast Dr Daan Steenkamp explained what they do.

Listen to the ERSA podcast here: http://www.econrsa.org/podcasts

Ekonome wil graag weet hoe dit met die ekonomie gaan, maar een van die groot uitdagings is die sloerings waarmee amptelike data beskikbaar is – byvoorbeeld, die Bruto Binnelandse Produk word kwartaalliks gepublisser en met ‘n een kwartaal sloering. Sogenaamde “now casting” modelle gebruik hoë frekwensie data om hierdie kwartaal se vlak van ekonomiese aktiwiteit te voorspel. Die Reserwebank gebruik ʼn vragmotorindeks genaamd die Truck-o-meter en in ʼn onlangse ERSA potgooi het Dr Daan Steenkamp verduidelik wat hulle doen.

Luister die ERSA potgooi hier: http://www.econrsa.org/podcasts

This week there was not much new economic data, but there were at least some clues as to how the economy is doing.